저자: Kevin · 외국인
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미 10년물 금리가 지난주 1.6% 부근 급등 후 1.43%로 안정, 달러·유가도 진정되며 시장 회복 기대. 비트코인도 반등 중. 테슬라 700달러 이하, 엔페이즈 180달러 이하 분할 매수 의향, 엣시는 고점으로 판단. 넥스트(NEO) 실적 발표 후 마진 개선 여부에 따라 대응 예고, 줌은 가이던스 기준 하락 가능성, 워크호스는 USPS 계약 실패로 부정적. 파월 발언(목요일), 연준 베이지북, 실업률 발표를 주요 변수로 언급.
다듬은 글
is the market going into the toilet today hey everyone meet kevin here well to help determine whether or not the market will be going into the toilet today or even this week it is helpful to analyze what destroyed our market last week and compare to this week yes we are going to start by looking at the good old 10 year treasury in fact i'm gonna go ahead and just hide myself for a moment because this is what matters this is the madness that we had last week right here the 25th when we had a disastrous thursday when we hit these peak prices peak sustained prices we had short-term peaks within the day of even as high as breaking 1.6 on the 10-year we have settled it down we settled it down on friday we settle down substantially in futures we're pretty stable right now around 1.43 on the 10-year this is this is good news this is better than potentially high settling right now we're lower than where we were thursday we're lower than where we were friday and we've got some stabling stabilizing happening dollar is stabilizing it's not free falling like it was that's good we've got oil prices sustained on talks that stimulus is coming obviously third stimulus package coming we've got the johnson and johnson vaccine we've got a lot of things to be uh excited about right now now bitcoin on the other hand had a you know sharp 20 sell-off but i have to say bitcoin also somewhat recovering right now in fact if we go ahead and pull up robin hood we'll see we had this pretty dang solid sell-off here from a high of around seven thousand four hundred almost fifty seven five uh down to this low over here of about forty five three but if we go into the day now we're at about forty seven eight and we're rising into the day so it looks like the market so far is expected to be enthusiastic this week some of those treasury bond uh you know auctions that we saw last week we're not expecting to see those issues get repeated this week especially now as the market is coming to terms with yes there's going to be another round of stimulus yes that means the money printer is going to be running more now we've priced that in are we good can we get back to normal now well let's see what the stock market futures are doing and then let's talk about some earnings to pay attention to as well some stocks that i'm personally thinking maybe it's time for a transition in let's go ahead and jump in so first things first let's go ahead and look at the futures here's what we've got and this is this isn't even really the futures anymore at this point futures were green right now we are already in pre-market trading it is about a 6 a.m eastern time or 3 a.m pacific time right now we've got fisker selling off a little bit after a massive rally last week keep in mind we might continue to see a bit of the sell-off at fisker as peak media fades remember last week they were on fox cnbc and they were on cnn so they really hit the the media circus or i should swell both i guess media circuit last week and i wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of this enthusiasm fade from fisker especially since they're probably about one to two years behind a lucid uh the cciv emerger this is really it that we have for negative right now fisker bed bath and arcturus is really flat here uh we've got walgreens pretty flat as well but if i now go ahead and sort by gainers here look at this we got cli up 12 in the pre market here amc 11 amc 11 and potentially gaining here uh in in this pre-market rate yep here we go in the pre-market we got a really nice sustained really gain here with amc pushing pushing nice and straight up in the pre-market hours we'll see how this develops obviously through the rest of the day sorting through that the rest we got zom charge point plug power micro vision matterport up seven percent uh e-bikes up another seven percent really almost feels like a lot of the things that we're selling off last week coming back here strong uh to open this week up we've even got till ray we've got cannabis palantir turning around over 25 again we've got churchill capital up seven percent this is why and it's one of the things that i drill into us in the psychology of a money course is never squander never ever squander a red day in the stock market if you haven't checked that out yet make sure to use that coupon code hotel link down below not only can you join me in the private live streams but you get the lectures lifetime access to those and any new ones that i add but obviously you get a really good community as well that'll help you not squander the red days buy on those red days we got nano dimensions sitting at 10 50 still you know a far cry from where we've been at some of the crazy highs we've seen some of this has to do with a lot of outflows leaving arc invest for example but there's a lot of enthusiasm to see money flowing back into arc invest here especially after kathy wood also gave her a bullish thesis again reiterating her strategy for investing in tech and innovation and saying that look when these things sell off that's the time to buy tesla's still though under 700.
for me personally tesla under 700 very juicy target even though i love etsy uh and i love en phase as well i'll be targeting out of these three i would be targeting tesla under 700 as something to add to uh and end phase under 180 i would add to that as well etsy right here at 225 that's about peak now in terms of some of the stocks that i've actually kind of been uh putting on the on sort of the this list of uh that we'll call them the naughty list i have to admit i've been looking at some stocks that i don't know that i really want to be in forever but some stocks that i might want to rotate into some of my favorite tech plays or my innovation place and so that might mean it might be time soon for me to cut ties finally with some of these big winners like and i i know when i say big winners and these names it's like really those were big winners yeah they were big winners as well but they were more part of the conservative part of the portfolio uh home depot lowe's target uh even zoom during obviously covet you know we'll see i mean zoom reports earnings today but it might we might be getting to that time where does it make sense to maybe reduce my position in those or just close out my position in those and transition that over to getting tesla under 700 for example i'm a little over concentrated in tesla but obviously investing in some of the other growth opportunities as well that i'm excited about whether that's end phase or some of the other uh ev plays that exists like for example neo who's reporting earnings today uh neo we will be reporting earnings into a euphoric market which is good today appears to be opening as a euphoric day compared to what was last week uh which is very potentially a very welcomed day uh and this is good when we have earnings on days like today usually uh companies can get rewarded very handsomely now neo at the moment tesla's up three percent neo at the moment uh in pre-market hours in pre-market trading here it's uh trading actually uh up about 5.9 percent this is another reason you really want to be careful you know people regularly say ah you don't want to catch a falling knife on those red days um yeah you kind of do because your targets when you hit your targets like forty five dollars on neo those are usually there for a very short period of time like the downs can be a blink of an eye and then usually you look back on go and shoot a putting more money then yeah i mean that's the way it works but anyway neo at 48.45 still i mean there's a huge catalyst here today for neo neo reporting earnings today along with other companies i think for neo to have a big pop today neo's really going to have to prove their margin right now their margin somewhere between 12 to 14 and a half percent if they can bump this to 18 plus i have a good feeling that neo could move positively pretty strongly now if they come out and their margin goes down if their delivery growth rate slows those are going to be risk factors as well as updates on the battery swapping technology something that a lot of people are skeptical of though many people are very bullish off i've got a big position in neo about the same size as i have in cciv these are sort of my alternate bets next to tesla so we'll have to see how earnings come in today but neo big big big day for neo so watch that one i'm not going to be playing anything short term on neo but it's definitely one i want to see for i want to i want to see what kind of change in trends are we seeing over at neo uh and who knows if we get a miss it's gonna depend if i'm gonna add more to neo depending on how bad the miss is if we get a beat i'm not sure that i would add after the beat because i think the stock's gonna move quickly i think we can go from 48 where we are in pre-market now pretty quickly back to 60 dollars a share especially since this is such a large catalyst event could be a big 10-d printer so to speak zoom reports today i have to say zoom is one of those that i'm like man if they just beat big which i don't know if they will we're gonna have to see how much they can really convert though zoom tends to price on guidance and i think zoom's gonna come out and say something like yo we we don't really think uh that many new users are continuously coming to us that could be bad for zoom we could see a sell-off at zoom if we see a big beat though at zoom and zoom ends up doing some kind of meteoric rise that might be an opportunity for me to say okay zoom we've had a nice ride time for something different lemonade on the other hand lemonade is a company that pretty much the only thing people say about it is ah lemonade overvalued company look it's expensive it's an insurance company that is betting on millennials becoming lifelong customers their expected value for these customers is not going to be realized for probably i mean at least the next two to three years but realistically the lifetime earnings of these customers uh especially the millennials that they attract at lemonade if you haven't checked them out yet go to lemonade.com that's not even an affiliate link but uh they've got great products from renters insurance to homeowners insurance pet insurance i think they just started life insurance which is actually different from the life insurance that i use life insurance i use is at medken.com life check it out it's pretty easy you can sign up without talking to anyone but lemonade really great insurance company they haven't checked out their life insurance products yet but i know they use artificial intelligence to help essentially i mean look a lot of companies use ai i feel like at this point that's almost a buzzword but lemonade really tries to sign you up for a an insurance plan using complete ai service which basically means you're not talking to a broker or they try to get you the best price and then they take all of the data in from all the actions that you take like whether you read the terms of service or not they take all of these factors into account along with hundreds of other signals that other insurance companies don't to risk okay who's potentially the most risky pool and in theory i don't say this part but in theory they could just offload the riskier people over to their reinsurance companies i'm not sure if they can divide out their customers like this although it would be pretty brilliant if they can uh they do use artificial intelligence though to risk their pool and they do use reinsurance for about 75 percent of their portfolio so why not just offload the riskiest seven you know the riskiest three three fourths so to speak i don't know that's that's what i'd be thinking of if i were lemonade so i wouldn't put it past them to do that uh we do have a workhorse reporting before the bell and uh we've got berkshire hathaway reporting before the bell can't say i'm optimistic about workhorse i mean i know workhorses have then it looks like a value plan i know that we've got uh arc invest who's added to them they're at 17 bucks they're up five percent here in the pre-market sure maybe we might have a beat on earnings who knows that miss in that usps contract though it's a big concern and it also concerns me for just commercial electric vehicles across the board because look if the usps isn't giving their contract to electric vehicle manufacturers that does not send a good signal for cost parity for the rest of the ev industry at least in the commercial space consumers i think are more willing to buy an electric vehicle even even if we're not at cost parity yet compared to a internal combustion engine vehicle and that's likely because consumers value going green and value the transition to energy efficiency more than a business does because a business has to look at it and go look what's my break-even cost am i going to make money on this decision a consumer doesn't necessarily have that same motivation they have other factors uh we call them sort of the in invaluables like how much how much extra are they paying just to be green it's kind of like when the prius first came out i bought one don't get me wrong but i bought it as a real estate agent because it was a green car and that was the thing to do in california i was following a trend right and uh in my opinion the paris was really just a dressed up camry with a battery in it that they were selling for like 13 grand more and i doubt the battery cost 13 grand or the hybrid system in total so in other words i knew i was paying a green premium at the time for that uh so obviously you know uh commercial vehicles will electrify in time but it might take longer and that is a negative signal in my opinion for workhorse as well we do expect jerome powell to be talking on thursday that could be a potential market catalyst we've got the fed beige book coming out on wednesday the day before unemployment data coming out on friday that'll update our unemployment figure that is the percentage so not just unemployment claims coming out on thursday but the actual unemployment rate will update on friday uh and uh yeah oil prices are up and folks hopefully hopefully we'll see hopefully volatility settles down a little bit this week and we get a little bit more of a relaxed environment so far it looks like the volatility index will be down the vix we'll see them folks i wish you good luck this week obviously i'll be streaming throughout the week
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