저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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시장 급락 후 채권 매도(금리 급등)가 진정될 수 있으며, 채권 공매도 과열이 되돌림을 만들 수 있다고 봄. 기술·혁신(전기차, 유전체 등)에 집중 투자 강조, 금리는 인플레이션 우려로 연준이 예상보다 빨리 올릴 가능성과 통화 유통속도 둔화로 금리 동결 가능성을 함께 제시. 비트코인은 가장 안전한 암호화폐이자 디지털 금으로 장기 긍정적 견해. 전반적으로 기술주에 우호적이며 가치주·인덱스펀드에는 비판적.
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if you want to invest in bitcoin in a safe way check out block five by going to metcalf.com bf and get they pay between five to eight percent on different cryptocurrencies so check it out metkevin.com bf like block fi and using that referral code is how you'll get that free 250 when you sign up and deposit money with block fi how much you get depends on how much you deposit matt kevin.com bf the market this week felt horrible in fact many are considering it the start of a potential market crash well here's what kathy wood has to say about what the heck is going on in this market now as usual remember please don't sue me bro i'm just a dude making a video outlining what kathy wood thinks and trying to simplify what the heck it is that she's talking about and trying to save some time so let's get into some of the bottom lines first kathy wood in her video released yesterday stated that we already know that bonds sold off this week due to concerns for inflation fed rate hikes growth in the economy and additional rounds of bonds being released to finance stimulus if you need more clarity on this type into youtube meet kevin why the market crash today and look for my video from thursday but the big question right now is what's next not what happened what's next our yields going to continue to skyrocket causing another stock market sell-off or was this a one-off and are we good now can we just go back to investing and looking at our green attendees well according to kathy wood bonds are very heavily shorted and have been historically not shorted as highly as they are now and that could have led to the latest sell-off that we're seeing in the market especially what happened on thursday because when bonds sell off yields go up and that's what spooked the stock market now kathy wood actually believes that we might see a pause in yields going up because the amount of shorting in the bond market may now slow down after the catastrophe that we saw on thursday and this is a little bit tricky to wrap our heads around because we have to ask ourselves okay so bonds were shorted so their prices went down which meant their interest rate yield went up and in order for prices to continue going down maybe we'd need more people shorting them but because yields are higher now maybe less people are inclined to short them so that's a theory and that's kind of what kathy wood is outlining in other words saying hey right now we think there might be a pause in increasing interest rates in the bond market which means a pause in the sell-off in the stock market that's kathy wood's take now kathy woods take here i have to say a little little tricky to really grasp uh grasp on to so i did a little bit of research and uh digging and i came across this which is actually the march 1st edition of the berens publication even though technically it came out today on february 27th here two days early but that's how they publish these things but anyway this is an article and i publish all of these uh all my new research by the way i've got a new section in my stocks and money course where anytime i'm researching something i'm going to be providing you exactly what i'm reading so it's just a convenient extra way to if you're looking for something to read read what i'm reading but anyway what's interesting about this article here scorched stock bulls learn bonds aren't so boring after all in the article they tell us a little bit more first they tell us what happened on thursday wasn't so much that bond yields went up it was quote the ferocity at which most of the action took place on thursday in other words the rate at which yields went up how quickly they spiked that spooked the stock market not necessarily that they did and they mention that quote yet by week's end it appeared the backup in treasury yields might have run its course at least for now they go on to say that the treasury market actually appears oversold right now especially when we look at the relative strength index the rsi a technic a very common technical that's used for trading that really what the market might just be doing is trying to price in the fact that interest rates might be going up in the future in other words we're regularly fearful that oh man as soon as interest rates go up the market might crash and pull back barons is kind of saying hey we might start seeing that pricing in happening now because remember the stock market tries to price in future terms the stock market's trying to say hey let's price in what we think the market's going to be like in 18 months to two years and so baron suggests hey you know what this spike that we've seen recently could have been a short-term adjustment to okay yields went up they went up at a fast rate great we're done we had our sell-off we had our price in let's go back to normal now and so behrens and kathy here kind of agree and in my opinion this is kind of neat because a if rates go up then maybe stocks won't crash as hard in the future because maybe we've already started pricing in that expectation and b if inflation doesn't end up coming around and rates don't end up going up we could end up pricing out that risk meaning stocks could go up even more in other words both kathy and barents here are actually being kind of bullish after the madness that we saw on thursday and on thursday there was a lot of pain on thursday i was doing everything i could to make sure all of y'all who support me and watch me on the channel or in the courses that i have linked down below use that coupon code that's down there uh but anyway i was trying to do whatever i could to encourage hey this is the time to hold this is the time to add by the dip right by the tip anyway the fact is that now here looking back we've got kathy wood over at arkhanvest obviously very popular and baron suggesting hey this is good you know we let some steam out of the market but we think that pain is at least for now temporarily over that's a good thing it's bullish now we don't want to stick our head in the sand and be stupid and go yolo 100 on margin but this is good to understand what their perspectives are now kathy's perspectives go a lot deeper when it comes to valuing and she broke a lot of that down yesterday and here's just a simple explanation so kathy wood believes that people generally expect a return of about four to five percent in the stock market and therefore if you take a very simple formula that she uses which is simply the number one divided by the yield that you expect you get a price to earnings ratio and if you take four to five well one divided by four to five percent you would get a price to earnings ratio in the market of somewhere between 20 to 25 which she says okay cool like we tend to top out around 20 to 25 but wait a minute what if the expectation that people have that the stock market is going to return on their money in the future declines to say two to three percent well in theory then price to earnings ratios could go as high as 33 to 50.
whereas in the past or in a down market maybe we'd expect a six to seven percent return on our money where p e ratios are like 14 to 16. kathy wood actually thinks the opposite might happen that is we could see average price to earnings ratios multiples in the stock market sitting around 33 to 55 as people demand less of a return on their money as we kind of stay and settle in a potentially lower interest rate environment which is actually really bullish for stocks because right now there are a lot of individuals who look at the s ps price to earnings ratio for example or the price to earnings ratio of companies and we get confused because we're like oh my gosh everything feels so historically high but if people's expectations of returns on their money go down that is they're willing to pay a higher price for the same share of earnings from companies then maybe stocks aren't really overvalued now it just becomes a matter of more people are in the market because maybe more money was generated after all 50 or we say 25 to 30 percent of all money that's in the market now was it generated in 2020 which is kind of weird to say but uh anyway if that's the case and people are looking and searching for returns then maybe kathy wood is right maybe broader index funds are only going to return two to three percent compared to the old school seven percent before reinvesting dividends because so many more people are chasing the same returns and this is why kathy wood believes it's so important to laser focus on technology innovation and dna and genomics so here's kathy woods kind of rationale for this kathy believes and this is something she's been very consistent about that legacy blue chip companies like gm which she singled out are so far behind the technology race that they're failing to realize the pace of innovation that's taking place and once they finally get it they're going to have to substantially cut the prices of their products in the future to even stand a chance at competing and this will end up leading to a rey dalio style of deflation which she views as bad which is really where companies go through this great deleveraging by cutting prices to try to stay competitive to at the same time eliminate their debt before they can get consumed by their own debt so this is where kathy says the correct answer here in all of what we've just talked about is doubling down on innovation and she turns the market drama of this last week on its head she says look i've been down this road before in fact as recently as 2016 and 17 we had money in markets after donald trump's election shift to value plays and away from technology she actually says that 2016 and 17 were very painful for arc invest because they invest so heavily in innovation in tech but that's not what did well after trump's election yet kathy wood and this is where you you kind of go down the kathy rabbit hole that's okay if you believe in her kathy wood believes hey look as long as money is expanding into these other sectors like value which could end up being value traps but hey that's on other people i'm not investing there as she says anyway the more money invests into these other areas the better it actually is for technology and innovation because as more money spreads into these other in her opinion lower growth areas then in the future as technology and innovation show this is where the game is this is where the money is being made you want to be an innovation in tech then money might actually flow from value in other sectors back into tech genomics and innovation and actually end up leading to outsized returns in those sectors much like what we saw in 2019 and 2020 with tesla and tech so in other words kathy wood is turning around what happened this week completely on its head and saying hey oh this whole like correction that happened last week first of all called it she did say in january hats off to her that we should prepare for some form of a correction this year she said she didn't know when but that you should always be prepared for it so hats off she is correct uh but uh what she's also saying is hey look by the dip like get in on technology and innovation during these times when people are distracted by maybe what plays that appear to be value plays but could end up being value traps or even index funds which she is deathly opposed to maybe not deathly but she's not very excited about index funds anyway and maybe who knows maybe there's a bias at play here because she does run an actively managed etf exchange traded fund which basically means you can invest in her actively managed fund by buying shares in things like rk arc g r w and so on now when it comes to interest rates kathy wood believes that there are two trajectories for interest rates and what the federal reserve might do she believes that the fed will either raise rates sooner to combat potential inflation that potentially jerome powell is going to have to u-turn on his argument that we're not going to raise rates until 2024.
this by the way is a scenario that i kind of disagree with personally i kind of think that jerome is going to stick to his guns and we're not going to see the fed raise rates until 2024 but you know you you can't always be 100 in on something you have to be open to all possible scenarios but anyway she believes that the fed's going to change trajectories and and they're going to end up raising rates sooner rather than later and that's one of the reasons she is bullish on bitcoin but it's also one of her explanations for well that is why we might potentially see some volatility in stocks like the tech sector genomic sector as the market begins to price in rates which we just saw in this last week now there is a flip side though and this is the side that i'm a little bit more inclined to believe in and this is the side that kathy wood also addresses which is very important because it totally makes sense and this has to do with the decline in the velocity of money so this is something we've gone deep on as well before on this channel but the easiest way to explain the velocity of money and to kind of show this alternate scenario so if scenario number one is fed changes their opinion they raise rates sooner than expected then scenario number two is the fed doesn't raise rates right we go with with the more like kevin fed strategy of let's wait until 2024.
and again i'm not trying to like align myself 100 with one direction i'm just leaning more towards i don't think the fed's going to raise rates anytime soon anyway in that scenario which kathy wood addresses she believes the velocity of money can stay low and maybe we don't actually have to raise rates and here's an easy example for this let's say there are 100 of us in a classroom so kind of think about it like a college lecture hall okay so there are a hundred of us in a classroom let's say every single one of us has one billion dollars that is one of these little pieces of paper right here represents one billion dollars now let's say we all buy something from each other 10 times in other words i buy you or i buy a cup of coffee from you for a billion dollars then you take my billion dollars and you go buy i don't know toilet paper for a billion dollars whatever the point is all of our money circulates in our little economy in this lecture hall 10 times so now we've kind of created this lecture hall economy well if we have 100 people and our money exchanges hands 10 times and we each have a billion dollars then we take 100 billion times 10 and we have a 1 trillion dollar economy okay cool well now let's say we get somebody like uh mr j powell and he's got a money printer and he walks in the room as a substitute teacher for the day and uh he cranks out you know what jerome powell cranks cold hard cash what else and he doubles the money we all have so all of a sudden now instead of having one billion dollars we actually have two billion dollars which means we've doubled the amount of money that we have which means in theory instead of just buying one coffee i could buy twice as many coffees and if i were to buy twice as many coffees the price of that coffee might go up because there might be so much more demand on coffee the price of coffee might go up which means there might be inflation but what if maybe i double my money but now i go ahead and save and invest the other half and maybe even a little bit more and i actually only circulate like 700 million of my billion dollars instead of the full two billion dollars or even the full one billion that i before and now i'm actually exchanging less money that's circulating well now even though we've printed more money our economy is actually in this more extreme example here shrunk our economy went from a one trillion dollar economy to us each only circulating 700 million dollars meaning we've gone to a 700 billion dollar economy so we actually had a decline in gdp which means less demand for products and services which means potentially less pressure on inflation which means prices could actually come down despite the fact that we now have way more money and that that's a very real possibility because this is something that i've mentioned often on this channel during this pandemic is in my opinion we could be going into something that i call the frugal decade which is where we actually save and invest more than we spend it's kind of like what i showed here we're sure we have maybe more money but we save and invest this and then you know we don't need to spend this we just we just don't need to spend that much money let's put that away we still got money to spend we're still gonna go on vacations and stuff we're still gonna have a reopening boom but if the velocity of money goes down inflation might not actually happen and if inflation doesn't actually happen then the fed won't have to raise rates as much and they can continue to fight unemployment which is their goal after all that is part of their dual mandate and arguably it is one of the most important parts of their dual mandate price stability and unemployment and we want to see unemployment as low as possible so in other words kathy wood is bullish in an environment where rates go up because she believes in innovation but she's also bullish in an environment where rates stay low because if rates stay low well that's just going to keep pumping money into the stock market anyway and so no matter how you slice the inflation debate kathy wood is like look tech and innovation okay like how many different times we're gonna have to explain the same freaking thing tech and innovation okay and one of the reasons she's so bullish on tech and innovation is because she believes that electric vehicle companies become more efficient for every doubling of output and this is kind of interesting she says look when the ev industry doubles their output they become 28 more efficient every time they double 28 28 28 and i'm sure there's some kind of declining scale to that but still that that doubling in efficiency huge because that means profits that means 10 d's yes and we all like tendees in the dna sequency sequencing industries she actually believes that's more like a 40 increase in efficiency now kathy also reiterated her belief in bitcoin suggesting that uh energy costs are a non-issue relative to the traditional banking system which uses a lot of energy or even compared to the energy it takes to mine gold for example and she does view bitcoin as a digital gold she believes the use cases for bitcoin are just beginning and even though bitcoin might be a little bit slower than smart contracts at ethereum she believes bitcoin is the safest cryptocurrency there there is and she basically went on to call and and she didn't because kathy was very nice but she kind of basically went on to call jane yellen a boomer and kind of suggested that janie yellen doesn't really understand what the heck she's talking about with bitcoin yet and don't you worry bitcoin's still going to 400 thousand dollars now all of this could have just been the biggest defense for kathy wood and maybe i'm just perpetuating that defense i don't invest in kathy woods funds but you know i tend to agree with a lot of her perspectives i'm a little bit more on the side that we're not going to see inflation as quickly i'm kind of on the side that we're going to have this frugal decade and see less uh you know less velocity of money could be wrong there but but then again i'm like i would say like 80 20 uh you know 80 leaning towards less inflation 20 keeping the door open and we'll see that can change over time and of course kathy wood appears to be somewhere maybe closer to like 50 50 on that maybe she's even like no i'm like 60 the fed's gonna raise rates sooner rather than later she's kind of treading lightly there in terms of which side she's actually on not that it really matters i mean the slight differences don't matter i think we're both still going to be investing in genomics and tech because the sectors are freaking awesome and innovation it's great but uh yeah there you have it so this was either a uh fully detailed advertisement for arc i'm not sponsored or affiliated with arc in all transparency here or hopefully this was educational for you and i want to know do you agree with kathy or has she lost her mind is she missing something completely and are we instead going to see a more reverse of what i've just described where we see maybe a peter schiff style future where the fed doesn't think about raising rates the fed actually can't raise rates instead they need to print more money because the dollar is collapsing and we have much larger economic issues because all of our wealth is relatively disappearing unless of course we're trying to protect ourselves in stock market or assets but ideally not dollar denominated assets but then again now we're really opening pandora's box and i did just have a two hour interview with peter schiff so i think i'm not doing that justice by talking about that for about 30 seconds at the end of a kathy wood interview video not interview video anywho if you found this helpful make sure to shar
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