저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
컨퍼런스보드 선행지수(LEI)가 3개월 연속 경기침체 신호를 보이나, 주식시장 상승이 지수를 떠받치고 있는 상태다. 세부 구성요소(신규수주, 소비자기대, 주간 실업수당 청구 등)는 약하다. 컨퍼런스보드는 침체를 전망하지 않으나 하반기 성장 둔화를 예상한다. 루트닉 상무장관의 관세 발언(소국 10%, 대국 추가 관세, 8월 1일 마감)을 인용하며 하반기 관세 부담과 실업률 상승 가능성을 경계한다.
다듬은 글
The leading economic index is an index that tries to forecast, hey, are we going to go into recession or not? And usually it does a good job at leading recession. You can see here in the dotcom bubble, it led recession, which is the blue line, led recession in the uh 2008 great financial crisis. And as you can see, it's plummeting right now, but it's been plummeting since 2022.
So the question is, how much lower is this than historic levels? Well, it's lower than the plateau in 2015, and we're now falling below the peak of 2006. So, technically, uh, we've got some room to go to get lower here. Technically, if we wanted to actually see recessionary levels, we might get from this 98 level where we sit now all the way down to 80 and then we're probably in the midst of a recession.
But the makeup of the leading index is what's most concerning to me because take a look at what I've just highlighted here as this data just came out 3 minutes ago. First of all here you'll see this person says for a second month in a row the stock price rally was the main support of the LEI but this was not enough to offset very low consumer expectations weak new orders and manufacturing and the third consecutive month of initial unemployment claims.
Okay. So, why does that matter? Well, it matters because of the components of LEI. Here's the components chart. Now, this is what you should really have uh in the back of your mind or or honestly really at this point in the front of your mind when it comes to understanding what has this negative leading indicator not falling off a cliff.
Okay. So in other words, without which component would this actually be plummeting right now? Uh in other words, even though we are at the lowest level we've seen in about 11 years on the leading indicator and we're roughly aligned with the 2005 top, this line would actually be nosediving fast right now if it weren't for one thing.
And that one thing is the S&P 500 going up. I hate to say it, stock market going up doesn't actually mean that the underlying economy is going up. In fact, often the economy and the stock market can be at total odds where when the economy is faltering, the stock market's at all-time highs or when the stock market is depressed and low, you're actually setting up for a boom in the economy.
So, what's fascinating here is the details aren't great. You've got negative contributions from average weekly initial claims. You've got basically no contribution from new orders from manufacturers. Uh, and this is this is data as of today. New manufacturers on non-defensive capital goods flat. Average weekly hours flat.
Building permits basically flat. New orders from the ISM index negative. consumer expectations negative, interest rates not really contributing as well, and the stock market really being the one thing that's propping up this index. So, if it weren't for the stock market, this would be falling even faster.
Let's listen to some more of their commentary. In addition to the LEI's 6-month growth rate weakening, while the diffusion index over the past 6 months remained below 50, triggering a recession signal for the third consecutive month. So now we've got three months in a row of the leading indicator from the conference board which which could be fugazi you know maybe this time's different maybe maybe it doesn't matter and remember they have two things they have a coincident indicator uh or index which is the black line like how are things right now and it's generally up and to the right and then you have your leading indicator which is typically your signal of a recession uh to come or coming.
Uh but this is interesting because it shows you that you had um a flat read in May, a negative read last month and a negative read uh now. So let's see what we have here. We've got u the diffusion index over the past six months rel remained below 50 triggering the recession signal for a third consecutive month.
At this point though, the conference board does not forecast a recession, which is good. Although economic growth is expected to slow substantially in 25 to 24. So, interestingly, even though their signal is falling and it's propped up by the stock market, which could obviously flip rapidly, it's not enough for them to say eh it's recessionary.
So, it's just enough for them to say that they think GDP will grow slowly with the impact of tariffs being more apparent in the second half as consumer spending slows with higher prices. Maybe. I mean, we'll see. Lutnik seems to be cheering a lot of trade deals coming. We'll see. A plethora of trade deals coming.
At least that's what you're seeing right now. If you haven't seen it yet, uh Lutnik uh he really gave us some good shilling on uh the uh Face the Nation uh video. We could take a brief look at it. It's not worth watching all of it, but take a take a little listen to some of it and we'll we'll skip around and we'll go back to the leading index and look at some more of it.
Too much focus public the trade deficit. This will go a long way to fixing the trade deficit. And that's gotten these countries to the table and they're going to open their markets or they're going to pay the tariff. And if they open their markets, the opportunity for Americans to export, to grow their business, farmers, ranchers, fishermen, this is going to be the next two weeks are going to be weeks for the record books.
President Trump is going to deliver for the American people. next week. So, classic kind of Trumpy and chilling so far, which is fine. Somebody say it's been flashing recession for the last 37. No, it actually hasn't been. It's been flashing recession for the last three months. It's been declining or some would argue normalizing for the last 37 months.
That's a big difference. We have a plan called USMCA, US Mexico, Canada agreement. Virtually 75% of all goods coming from Mexico and Canada already come in tariff-free. The president said, "Look, unless you stop this fentanyl and close the border, we're just going to keep tariffs on the other 25%." And that's what he has on.
So don't be confused about it. The president understands that we need to open the markets. Canada is not open to us. They need to open their market. Unless they're willing to open their market, they're going to pay a tariff. That's a simple message the president has. It's fair trade. It's reciprocal trade.
Why should we have a cut? See if we get a harder question. Is that set in stone or is it going to go to like 15 or 20%. There's going to be a tariff here. There's already this baseline 10% tariff that we are seeing from the administration. Um is that set in stone or is it going to go to like 15 or 20%.
Let me go up. Well, I think what you've got is you should assume that the small countries, you know, the Latin American countries, the Caribbean countries, many countries in Africa, they will have a baseline tariff of 10%. And then the bigger economies will either open themselves up or they'll pay a fair tariff to America for not opening them.
This is an interesting point of view from Lutnik. It's basically saying, hey, the smaller countries that don't really matter to our trade, oh, we'll just give them 10%. That's the cost of doing business with America. But the bigger countries, we want more because that's where we're going to, you know, get some moneyelves up and treating America unfairly.
So what the president's view is and what he's instructed me to do is say, look, if you're willing to open yourself up and really open your economy to American business, to ranchers, fishermen, food, I think the president is absolutely going to renegotiate USNCA. But that's a year from today. Exactly.
Oh, okay. A year from today. We want to renegotiate USMCA. It gets better and better every time with the European Union. This is a big one by the way, the EU question. You know, I was on the phone with the European trade negotiators this morning about a half hour ago. So, there's plenty of room. Look, the president and European Union, these are the two biggest trading partners in the world talking to each other.
We'll get a deal done. I am confident we'll get a deal done. Okay? And it will be great for America because the president has the back of America. So I think all these key countries will figure out it is better to open their markets to the United States of America than to pay a significant tariff. And Donald Trump has made that point clear.
No one has protected America the way Donald Trump has protected America. It is so fun to work for him because I have him behind me saying the right things for America and I get to do those negotiations with all these countries and you are going to see the best set of trade deals you've ever seen for America and for the American people.
Is that August 1st deadline with the EU a hard deadline? Are you going to get a deal since you were just on the phone? No. No, that's a hard deadline. So on August 1st, the new tariff rates will come in, but nothing stops countries from talking to us after August 1st, but they're going to start paying the tariffs on August 1st.
Now remember, the world is paying that's going to be interesting because, you know, we've we've seen just delay after delay after delay after delay. If we actually do start seeing say 20 25% tariffs on the European Union, really the largest trading block that we trade with and you get the reciprocal tariffs from Europe, the second half, boy, is is really setting up for, you know, there's a lot of pressure on it.
Let's put it that way. All-time high valuations, the impact of the tariffs everybody was worried about in April, it's actually pushed off to the second half. You've got, you know, talk about the unemployment rate potentially going up towards the end of the year thanks to layoffs, which isn't just like speculation.
It's it's really it's I mean, I guess it's speculation, but it's it's coming from the Fed as well. Now, Federal Reserve is forecasting the unemployment rate going to go up anywhere between 3 to 6% by the end of the year. So, that should really start manifesting between well really the next four to five months.
So, we'll see. 10% right now and China's paying 30%. So that's right now and that's why we're running at about third plus $30 billion a month for the American people. You got to remember this is going to pay off our deficit. This is going to make America stronger. We are finally protecting America. Well, you'll have that income if you keep them in place, but if you're negotiating them away, then they won't be there.
So I that that is contradictory to me, but nothing's getting No, no, no, no, no. the way we have a 10% in the world. No, no, 10% is definitely going to stay. Many countries will pay higher like Vietnam and Indonesia, right? They're 19 and 20%. Most countries will pay higher. The small countries are likely to be 10%.
But the bigger countries are likely to pay higher. That's just the way it's going to be because we can't have these $1 trillion trade deficit. It's just wrong for America and Donald Trump is going to fix it. And American corporations are just going to swallow that and not pass that price increase on to consumers.
What's your project? What what's so interesting is that you're worried about the importers. How about the people who build and employ Americans? No. I'm ask people go to the store cars here. People who manufacture here, they don't pay a tariff. They don't pay a tariff at all. So, President Trump says it all the time.
Build in America, you don't pay a tariff. The idea that these importers are more important than the people who employ Americans, I think it's just a wrong way of thinking about it. Americans deserve to be employed here and have the best jobs in the world. And that's what Donald Trump is trying. Yeah, that's the most juicy portion really of the interview.
You get this idea of, hey, like 10% baseline for all other countries. We'll negotiate with the bigger ones, but the bigger ones are going to be even bigger. And so they're really addicted to the sugar cane of the money that's coming in from tariffs, which is concerning because, you know, the first half of the year has been we're going to have tariffs.
Just kidding. We're going to delay the impact of the tariffs. Just kidding. We're going to negotiate them away. Now it's like, no, no, we're going to have tariffs because the stock market's at all-time high and doesn't care, so we may as well have tariffs. Well, that only works until it doesn't. Anyway, real GDP expected to grow at 1.6% this year.
Uh let's see the coincident indicator rose for June being unchanged for May and April. Uh four components include payroll, employment, personal income, less transfer payments, manufacturing, trade, sales, industrial production, and let's see, and they are included to determine if you're currently in a recession, which no, uh at least not based on the coincident.
Uh and let's see here. LEI's weak growth rate and diffusion index over the past 6 months triggered a recession signal for the third consecutive month in June. All right, who knows? Like we said, maybe this time is different. Then summary of the table. That's it. So that's your LEI and Lutnik update for the da.
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