저자: Kevin · 외국인
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증시가 사상 최고치지만 노동시장 둔화, 10-2 금리차 역전, 실업수당 청구 증가 등 경기침체 신호가 있다고 진단. 연준의 금리인하는 침체를 구제하지 못했다는 역사적 논리를 제시하며, 관세의 지연된 영향이 2025년 8월~2026년 3월 사이 나타날 것으로 봄. 장기 보유 관점(5년)의 투자 태도를 강조하고, 다수 종목 예측은 명시되지 않음.
다듬은 글
Hey, so many of you have been asking two big questions. Kevin, what's your take on the economy? And what is that giant green thing in the background of your videos? Because when you stand in the middle of it, it makes it look like you've got devil horns or sit in the middle of it. Well, I'll answer the second one first and then we'll talk about my thoughts on sort of the state of the economy, especially since we're at alltime highs.
Warlava of Azenoth. It's a World of Warcraft thing. I was a TBC Merciless season 2 gladiator. Uh, basically in English that means I played way too many video games in high school and now here I am. That said, so what do we have for the economy? Well, economically, we all know that if we evaluate the economy based on the stock market, we're at all-time highs and there's just nothing bad to say about the economy.
The only thing we can really do is sound like some loser bear and point to things that are starting to happen but haven't happened yet. For example, Mr. Waller, whom we don't know if we can trust because he's basically applying for a job at the Federal Reserve promising to cut interest rates for Donald Trump, says that the private labor market is really slowing down, which it is.
We only generated about 15,000 jobs last month outside of government and healthcare. And if we end up too late, which is sort of a co-f slam on too late Powell, which is was the coupon code last week as well, then you end up in a potential recession that you can't bail yourself out of with rate cuts.
And so this is why Waller is pitching a rate cut as soon as June, sorry, as soon as July. The July 30th meeting is uh well on July 30th. I'll be covering it. Uh so then the question becomes will rate cuts even solve any kind of economic problem in the event that they even do start cutting in July? After all, last year when we cut 50 basis points right before the election, which we could talk about the political impact of that uh in a different video, obviously impact zero, but motivation debatable.
The jobs market actually did fine. It's it recovered our unemployment rate went down. We started seeing growth in jobs again growth at business optimism growth in capital expenditures. GDP for Q4 ended really really strong last year. A lot of people say this was because of hope that Donald Trump was going to usher in this new businessfriendly growth style marketplace which frankly so far with the exception of that brief liberation we got that's exactly what's happened.
Now, businesses, if they want to go buy an H100, can deduct 100% of it. They want to go buy a little plane, they can deduct 100% of it for business purposes. And basically, businesses are incentivized to spend money on capital expenses and infrastructure. like Houseack for example is incentivized to not only take the existing AI servers we have for our AI project coming out in Q4 but also buying more because of the write-ups if we wanted to because you could fully write them off which is incredible because usually you'd have to depreciate them over 5 to seven years.
So a lot of these things say hey the economy could actually have a whole lot more gas in it. So really when we look at the things that are oopsy dupsy the 102 yield curve the uh continuing slow trend of unemployment claims up the continuing claims uh the breakdown of the components of what's actually in the labor report then yeah we could say all right at some point we're going to end up in an environment that is probably recessionary and then the question is do you not buy a house do you not buy stocks because of that risk What I thought was really interesting was something that my father-in-law said.
He said, "Look, even if you buy a house right now and you go into a recession for 5 years, let's just say, as long as you go into it planning that worst case scenario, you have a 5-year recession to get through, then who cares?" So, in other words, as long as you can plan that even if I lose my job, I'll get another or I have enough in reserves to make my payments, I'm not going to be upside down, right?
I'm not trying to show you buying a house right now. But that doesn't really matter. It could be stocks, right? Use stocks as the example. As long as you're willing to get through sort of a 5year period, great. Because even though we're at all-time highs right now, we may not go into a recession. But if the stuff you're buying and hodddling, you have the mindset of, "Hey, I I'll just hodddle this for 5 years." Then who really cares?
Obviously, if you're on margin, you have trailing stops hopefully because you don't want to get left holding a, you know, the double bag, you know, your bag and then the bag you borrowed, which then you have to pay both back, which sucks. So the reason I bring that up is because it's an interesting analogy when you think of uh investing or or or a thought to make that hey well can you get through 5 years and this is usually where the conversation comes up well why do I have to get through 5 years if they start cutting rates and this is where I think people forget what history shows us.
History shows us that the Federal Reserve does not bail us out of a recession by cutting rates. In fact the Federal Reserve historically cuts rates going into a slowdown which could be a 1995 style soft landing. Knock on wood. That'd be the best case scenario. Or you cut rates into a recession allow 2005 2006 or uh you know cutting rates right into COVID.
Although could you have predicted that? Well, things were slowing down whatever. Well, just look at any previous recessionary period and see the Fed cutting rates into it. Now, how does the Fed actually usually get us out? By printing money. Are they going to print money this time? Yes, they will. The question is how fast?
Because if we have a recession in say 26 or 7, we're going to have to we're going to have a new helm at the Federal Reserve, so to speak. And the concern that people have is what if that new helm at the Federal Reserve is um anti-deficit expansion like a Kevin Walsh, which wouldn't be good. Now, what else?
Obviously, you know, you'd prefer like a Hasset who's just going to bend the knee and print money. Even if it creates more deficit, it'll be for the sake of the economy how they'll sell it. Don't worry, our deficit just went up by trillions of dollars, but it's okay because we're saving, uh, you know, whatever.
So, uh, then we look, okay, well, is there even a very near-term catalyst for potential for a recessionary impetus? The answer there is absolutely. That is the lagged impact of tariffs, and it's possible that following Netflix earnings, where Netflix did totally fine, beat on all measures, the stock sold off, maybe institutions are starting to say, "Hey, in the near term, we're going to trade out.
We're going to take our profits for the year and we're going to let the impact of tariffs run. The impact of tariffs has really been buttered out probably to a period of between August and March because of the slow imple implementation of the various different tariffs and the lingering sectoral tariffs that never come.
Uh and then of course all these threats of retaliation which ultimately even if we settle at some kind of agreement with all the various different trading countries, especially the big ones, it sounds like it's they're going to be at least 20%. uh you know 18 19% unless you're a surplus country like the UK and you end up at 10%.
You're going to be at 19% minimum. So now we've like when does the economy fully price set in? Probably not until 2026 because you've got all these delays in getting negotiations done which remember last time we had trade negotiations it took 2 years to get trade negotiations done. Now quick note many of you have still been emailing us.
Yesterday, I was I was actually blown away that I had to bother the team so much to help you with the emails on the courses on building your wealth at meetke.com and the membership. So, we just very briefly extended uh that coupon code. So, if you still want to get in, we haven't changed the price. Uh and you can still get in at last week's price.
However, that will be changing. Check it out over at mekevin.com. So, uh yeah. And now I want you to see the babies. Uh and uh see what else I think of in the meantime. But I've got to go. I've got to go fly again. Uh I'll have to show you. If you follow me on Instagram, maybe I could show you some video of me flying with short shorts.
How's that sound? See how much screaming there's going to be over here. Oh, hello, Jack. Want to say hi? What do we got here? What kind of babies we got here? All of them. All of them. That's a That's a great answer. You want to say hi really quick? Summer. Ella, you want to say hi really quick? Hello.
Hey, buddy. What we got here? Happiness. Violet and Mr. Jman. How are you doing? Hi. Oh, you want to say hi? Hi, Claire. Sponsoring this with the Don't Sue Me brochure. Lauren, you want to say hi? Lauren doesn't want to say hi. She's standing right next to me. She doesn't want She's She's ducking. She's ducking for cover. She's right there. She's right there. You can see the back of her head.
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