저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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테슬라 주가가 2026년까지 5배 오를 수 있다는 캐시 우드의 낙관론 영상이다. 핵심 주장: 캐시 우드는 테슬라의 2026년 가격 목표를 주식분할 후 약 500달러로 제시했고, 이는 당시 주가(약 123달러) 대비 4배 이상 상승을 의미한다고 밝혔다. 근거 모델: ARK의 업데이트된 테슬라 모델은 2026년 주당 가치를 4,600달러(분할 전 기준)로 본다. 전기차 사업만으로도 목표가 달성이 가능하다는 논리다. 로보택시 사업: 모델상 로보택시가 2026년 기대가치의 약 60%, 2026년 EBITDA의 절반 이상을 차지한다. 다만 시뮬레이션 결과는 로보택시 출시 시점에 매우 민감하며, 일부 시나리오에서는 출시가 없다. 자본 효율성: 생산능력 증설당 자본지출이 2017년 약 8.4만 달러에서 최근 약 7,700달러 수준으로 개선됐다고 분석하며, 2026년에는 2,000~7,000달러 수준을 가정한다. 경쟁 및 전망: 우드는 테슬라가 항속거리와 출력 조합에서 완성차 업체들보다 앞서 있고, 기존 완성차들은 손실을 감수하지 않는 한 따라잡기 어렵다고 본다. 가솔린차는 5~10년 내 구식이 될 것이라고 전망한다. 투자 행동: ARK는 주가가 급락한 시기(2023년 1월 3일 전후, 하루 12.2% 하락)에도 테슬라 주식을 대량 매수했다. 주가는 2021년 11월 대비 약 75% 하락한 상태였다. 리스크: 자율주행 상용화 지연, 로보택시 출시 실패 시 모델 가치가 크게 낮아지며, 영상 자체가 과거 시점(2023년 1월)의 분석이라는 점을 고려해야 한다. 영상은 이미 2023년 1월 기준이며, 2026년 목표가는 이후 실제 주가 흐름과 크게 다를 수 있다.
다듬은 글
did you know that amidst economic uncertainties star investor Kathy Wood remains Ultra bullish on Tesla stock although Tesla has hardly even recovered from last year's dips wood shared her belief that Tesla stock will go 5x its value in 2026. you surely would not want to miss this the EV opportunity alone is enormous star investor Kathy Wood said in a January 7th tweet this is in response to our confessed Sam chorus's tweet which Kathy retweeted in the Tweet chorus said that Tesla's margins Superior drivetrain efficiency and low battery cost should make it one of the best positioned to weather any cyclical slowdown for Autos as it has done in the past it can be the first to lower prices which puts pressure on other automakers The Arc executive said in the Tweet to this Kathy Wood said that according to ark's CFA Tasha Kini Sam chorus and arcs research Tesla does not need autonomous ride hail to be a success according to Wood Tesla EV opportunity alone is enormous presenting arcs research arcs director of investment analysis and institutional strategies Tasha Kini said in a tweet which we believe will drive over our 2026 price Target would become roughly 500 a share post split based on EVS alone more than 4X increase from current price it can be noted that Arc invest published the Tesla valuation model in mid-april arc's updated open source Tesla Model yields an expected value per share of forty six hundred dollars in 2026 however note that the Tesla Model was published before Tesla executed a three for one stock split in August according to arc's updated open source Tesla Model Tesla's perspective Robo taxi business line is a key driver by contributing 60 percent of expected value and more than half of expected ebi TDA or earnings before interest taxes depreciation and advertisation in 2026 across the simulation set they expect electric vehicles to constitute 57 percent of the company's revenues in 2026 although at substantially lower margins than the robo taxi Revenue because of arc's increased conviction in Tesla's ability to achieve full self-driving they have to be updated with how the robo taxi business feeds into the model although in the past they predicted that Tesla will never be able to launch autonomous ride hailing recent positive Innovations from Tesla made them change their mind and assume its launch in 2026 four years later than musk expected they also suggest that Tesla will commercialize autonomous ride hail in 2024 however in nine percent of their model cases Tesla does not commercialize Robo taxis within the five-year window if and only if Robo taxi commercializes within the forecast window the modeled Financial results for Tesla are susceptible to the year of launch Arc invest's updated model also increases Tesla's Capital efficiency Tesla's capital expenditure per incremental unit of capacity had improved from around eighty four thousand dollars in 2017 when the model 3 was ramping up to around seventy seven hundred dollars in last year's model they estimated that Tesla would spend six to eight thousand dollars per incremental unit of capacity in 2025.
given it's much better than expected Capital efficiency it may be safe to assume the Tesla will spend two to seven thousand dollars per incremental unit of capacity in 2026. the arc invest team also pointed out that they expect Tesla's Robo taxi to be a game changer for the company by 2026 if Tesla successfully launches Robo taxis the expected value is the average of all one million simulations said simulations are highly sensitive to the year when Tesla finally launched Robo taxis in most of arc's lowest price per share scenarios Tesla launches a vertically integrated human-driven ride hill service but does not launch a robo taxi Network while in other scenarios Tesla does not launch either service while the company has not committed publicly to launching human-driven ride hail Arc detailed previously the Strategic and tactical advantages of doing so importantly human-driven ride hail could become a profitable recurring Revenue stream before Tesla launches a fully autonomous service for cases in which Tesla launches a human-driven ride hill service and solves for fully autonomous driving Arc assumes that its human-driven ride hail cars will transition to the autonomous ride hill network over time if it is unable to launch a robo taxi service within five years Tesla still could launch a human-driven ride hail vehicle while trying to solve for full autonomy however arcs Executives recent tweets showed that even without would become roughly 500 per share post split based on EVS alone which is more than 4X increase from its current price of around 123 dollars per share wood can be remembered saying we think that gas-powered vehicles are going to be obsolete within the next five to ten years and the traditional Auto industry has to figure out a way to migrate into electric vehicles in a Yahoo finance interview in a different interview Arc invest CFA Tasha Kini shared the reason for arc's positive stance on Tesla in a CNBC Squawk Box interview keaney said electric vehicles are just single digit percentage points of overall Auto Sales so we have to remember that it's still an early Market but we do definitely see Tesla as one of the market leaders both in electric vehicles and in autonomy most other auto manufacturers unless they want to lose money on their cars most are not going to be able to keep up with or to reach Tesla's combination so that's very important from a performance point of view and a range point of view said Kathy Wood when asked about her thoughts on Tesla in five years wood said that compared to other auto manufacturers Tesla definitely has an edge she said that if one analyzes cars not by brand but by range and power combination instead Tesla is the best pick among them all still she said that most famous Miss car brands like Volkswagen and BMW have done wonders in the last few years it is just that Tesla is way ahead of them in terms of the range and power combination wood said that most other auto manufacturers are not going to be able to keep up with or reach Tesla's combination unless they want to lose money on their cars wood emphasize that that's very important from a performance point of view and a range point of view when asked about her thoughts on large corporations competing with Tesla in electric vehicle production wood has this to say they are failing miserably branding is something different these other auto manufacturers have Brands and a lot of brand loyalty but I think as consumers start to shift from gas powered to electric and look at the specs of the different cars says wood she said that although they might still be persuaded by Brands only they won't have as good an electric vehicle as Tesla will provide Kathy Woods strong conviction in Tesla's future is supported by her actions as she keeps loading up on Tesla shares even as a Relentless sell-off drags down her flagship Fund in fact even after several dip buying sprees over the past several months Arc funds bought a hundred thousand nine hundred eighty two shares of Tesla on January 10th valued at 12 million dollars as of that day's close prior to that Woods Flagship Arc Innovation ETF purchased 145 000 shares of Tesla worth 15.7 million dollars at the automaker's 108 10 cent closing price on January 3rd while arc's autonomous technology and Robotics ETF nabbed a further 31 000 Tesla shares worth 3.4 million according to daily transaction reports the said purchase is valued at around 19 million dollars those purchases came during Tesla's 12.2 percent drop at the time its largest single day decline since September 2020 with the stock NOW down nearly 75 percent since November 2021.
you may wonder why so many investors have stuck with wood the fact that she had one spectacular year certainly helps Arc Innovation skyrocketed 153 in 2020. Wood who invent best in companies engaging in disruptive innovation made Millions amid Tesla and other favorites surge in the early days of the pandemic before a brutal 2022 sell-off wiped away arc's gains also wood has become something of a rock star in the investment World appearing frequently in the media she explains Financial Concepts in ways that novice investors can understand according to a recent Barons article ark's Kathy Wood says Tesla stock still has miles to run wood said the Tesla will outperform other car companies thanks in part to efficient manufacturing and the rise of an autonomous taxi overall more than four times its current valuation on August 25th 2022 this represents additional context to arcs analyst Tasha bikini she further levels make sure to subscribe to this channel for more Tesla stock updates
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