저자: ChamathPalihapitiya/채널제목상Chamath발언 · 외국인
요약 보기
채머스는 비트코인 반감기(having) 이후 12~18개월 사이 가격이 크게 오르는 패턴을 근거로 강세를 주장한다. 2·3차 반감기 평균 사이클을 적용하면 큰 상승 여지가 있다고 본다. ETF 도입으로 비트코인이 주류화되며 금 대체 자산 역할이 강화될 것으로 본다. 포트폴리오의 1% 위험회피 버킷에 비트코인을 담는다고 밝혔다. 2024 미국 대선에서 암호화폐 유권자(약 5천만 명) 영향이 클 것이라고 주장한다.
다듬은 글
then within 6 months to a year and 18 months of these things there are these crazy price appreciation Cycles 18 months after the first having the Bitcoin price returned 45x young people do not show up to vote because there isn't an issue that they care about correct but there's 50 million Americans that own crypto 50 5 so why is this interesting so here's a little bitcoin price analysis for you guys so there's been a couple of having cycles that have happened and I asked him to go back and look at the price performance one month after a having 3 months 6 months 9 months 12 months and 18 months after a having sha Palapa embodies the modern archetype of the tech disruptor turned Visionary investor rising from humble beginnings in Sri Lanka he ascended the ranks at Facebook where his Brilliance in product management helped shape the platform's early success as a venture cap capitalist he's a force to be reckoned with leveraging his insights to Champion Investments That prioritize social impact alongside profitability P haa is not one to shy away from controversy his outspoken views on Tech ethics wealth redistribution and the role of government often spark debate yet his track record speaks volumes with successful investments in companies like Spa Social Capital Yammer and slack shth recently appeared on on the all-in podcast where he made an astounding prediction about bitcoin's future trajectory he discussed bitcoin's Evolution over the past three having events and anticipates a significant price surge within the next 18 months as we bring you clips from the podcast take a moment to like the video subscribe to the channel and turn on post notifications for more video like this you can join the conversation by dropping your thoughts everything you do helps with YouTube algorithm and immensely contributes to the channel growth thank you and enjoy the video and what you notice is that there are these moments initially where essentially when you go through a Bitcoin having people are sort of reassessing what's happening and they're trying to figure it out that's sort of what I would say is happens in the first month and roughly what also happens in the first 3 months but then within 6 months to a year and 18 months of these things there are these crazy price appreciation cycles that happen so that's what this page shows which is you know 18 months after the first having the Bitcoin price returned 45x after the second having it returned almost 28x and after this third having it returned almost an adex which is really incredible returns in such a short period of time if you graph that this is what it starts to show which is what is this price performance after each of these having Cycles now why is that interesting well it's interesting because on top of this having which theoretically if history is a guide we should see some price appreciation obviously the other thing that's happened is we've commercialized Bitcoin and we talked about this sort of as my big prediction for 2020 for which is these ETFs are really going to allow Bitcoin to cross the chasm and have its sort of Central Key moment right we took these and we applied it to the price of Bitcoin and if you go to the next page you start to see what could happen if you just take the average of the last few Cycles so because the first cycle was so extreme and you start to you're just doing cycle two and three here to be clear just the averages of cycle two and three and what you start to see is some really meaningful appreciation and when I talked to Wes about this how he explained it which I which makes a lot of sense to me is there are a lot of countries that will never look at Bitcoin credibly even if they support it the US may be one of those but there's an increasing body of countries that will become dual currency and they will look at their local currency and then they will look at Bitcoin and they will say both of these two things are needed one when you're transacting on a daily basis for random goods and services and two when you need to buy a permanent asset that needs to have residual value you'll use something like BTC and I think that's a very powerful concept and if you look at what this price chart could indicate is that if this thing starts to get to these levels of appreciation it is going to completely replace gold and start to become something that has transactional utility for hard assets and I think if you marry that with this worry that some folks have about dollar debasement you start to see some really interesting opportunity in recent times accomplished investors and hedge fund managers have cast out on bitcoin's potential and its capacity to serve as a reliable form of currency amidst growing disillusionment with government policies figures like Warren Buffett Charlie Munger and Bill Gates expressed skepticism or outright dismissed Bitcoin as a scam favoring its demise however in a CNBC interview in 2018 shamith shed light on bitcoin's true nature and refuted the assertions made by Buffett Munger and Gates his analysis convincingly contradicted their perspectives asserting that they were mistaken in their assessments of bitcoin's viability and potential not everybody is right all the time and I think we have to acknowledge that we all have biases and look I'm a disciple of Buffett and Munger and one of the things that um they have said for years which I believe is you define a circle of competence and you stay within it and I think it's been clear in his entire investing career that technology is not in his circle of competence and so the only technology name that he's owned is Apple but jamaath just going back to this this I don't think he looks at as a technology I think he looks at it as an asset class that he would put in the same a similar class with gold just it's a nonproductive asset it's an asset that is only worth more if other people agree to pay more for it that that's the type of issue that which I also agree with I think I think it is exactly that I think it is a replacement to gold but again but you like gold you you're saying you like nonproductive assets I like in a portfolio again my portfolio is 99% risk on 1% risk off and in that 1% risk off bucket I think that something like Bitcoin is really important why because it is not correlated to the rest of the market I've been in the Bitcoin Market since 2012 and I feel like I'm in two different universes I need a passport to go between the Bitcoin world and my regular World these are not the same people um and what I would tell you is the people that own Bitcoin in 2012 all the way up to now the majority of those people view it as a hedge to the traditional Financial infrastructure um whether that's true or not is unclear but that's how we've all viewed it separately what Joe says is absolutely right there's a big difference between correlation and liquidity and the reality is all of these Financial assets in the traditional markets are fundamentally correlated we saw that in 2007 in 2008 the world witnessed one of the most devastating Financial crises in modern history it was triggered by the collapse of the housing market bubble in the United States leading to a domino effect that reverberated across Global Financial markets Banks faced insolvency stock markets plummeted and millions of people lost their homes and jobs the crisis exposed deep-seated flaws in the traditional Financial system characterized by centralized control opacity and susceptibility to manipulation amidst this chaos a mysterious figure known as the Satoshi Nakamoto emerged with a groundbreaking solution Bitcoin released in 2009 Bitcoin represented a radical departure from traditional currencies was decentralized operating on a peer-to-peer Network without the need for intermediaries like Banks transactions were transparent and immutable recorded on a public Ledger known as the blockchain Satoshi nakamoto's creation offered a glimpse of a new Financial paradigm one built on principles of trustless transparency and censorship resistance in the wake of the financial crisis Bitcoin gained traction as a hedge against economic instability and government overreach its decentralized nature appealed to those disillusioned with traditional financial institutions and their role in the crisis thus the emergence of Bitcoin amidst the 2008 financial crisis symbolizes not only a technological innovation but also Al a response to the failures of the existing Financial system Satoshi nakamoto's Vision continues to inspire a growing movement towards decentralized Finance challenging the status quo and offering a glimpse of a more Equitable and transparent financial future chat's perspective on bitcoin was shaped in direct response to Warren Charlie and Bill's skepticism he sees Bitcoin not just as a cryptocurrency but as a store of value a crucial distinction many young people in particular resonate with this aspect seeking to Shield themselves from The Fallout of the 2008 financial crisis where Investments were wiped out let's get back to the video Everything broke down things that we thought were Hedges went away and so I think it's really important to not forget what happened there so in 2018 or 19 heaven forbid we go through another cataclysmic financial event we are going to see the same fundamental correlation and so again I ask why would it not make sense to have a non-correlated hedge for a small amount of this is about buying insurance it was the same reason why in 2007 and8 the folks that bought simple simple Insurance bought some CDs bu gold I mean at least Gold's got a 3,000 year or 10,000 year record of of being a store of value I mean I think that's the other thing Buffett's saying there's no reason to think this is a store of value I that's a fair point but I think these are not exclusive decisions and um you know for for this younger class of entrance into the the market they probably don't want to buy gold in fact they don't want to buy gold and they want to buy something that's much more digital and reflective of their value look I think it's really unfair to not understand something and then to disparage it um again I think he's exceptional I think Warren Buffett is exceptional I think Bill Gates is exceptional at what they do and I think it's fair to say that in 30 or 40 years if I'm you know a vibrant successful investor and if I'm back on this show the idea that I know what's happening 30 or 40 years from now as well as some new 40-year-old or 30-year-old ented into the market is just not true the reality is things change chamoth firmly believes that this trend will impact the 2024 us election significantly Trump's Pro Bitcoin and crypto stance resonates with many young people who have chosen to store their wealth in Bitcoin in contrast Biden's Administration represented by figures like Gary Gensler and Elizabeth Warren has expressed intentions to curtail bitcoin's progress you know back to the young people we talked about in the previous story I think the reason they're attracted to crypto is because it doesn't have government control and since if you don't trust the government and you see the government over and over and over again cover things up or the grift or make decisions that are not in your generation's best interest why wouldn't you opt out of their financial system and you know what there's a lot of them and they have they're getting organized to your point saxs I think we're going to have a crypto framework and it's worth probably five points in this election what do you think SX how many points is being the Pro crypto candidate worth in this election one two three points of votes Four Points it's got to be people show up it'll be it'll be it could be 500 basis points I mean young people do not show up to vote because there isn't an issue that they care about correct but there's 50 million Americans that own crypto 50 5 Z okay so if 10% of them are like let's say that's their single that's million votes no no no there's a there's a plausible case where 40 million of those folks show up because you're talking about a structural part of their wealth creation right so for example like you know Biden President Biden talked about giving people a head start by eliminating their debt that's a narrow issue and the reason it's a narrow issue there's just as many people that don't have debt and just as many people that PID off their debt and it creates a lot of Hales and have knots right and there's all these rules around who will get the debt relief Etc you end up touching four or five million people maximum but if there are 50 million people who have now decided to have at least a hedge Against The Establishment and the traditional Financial system and you are threatening to take that wealth away yeah I could see how 80% of those folks show up to The Ballot Box and say all right which one of you will just leave me alone and if the answer is President Trump then they're all going to vote for president Trump there you have it shamith insights into Bitcoin predictions and the impact of having Cycles on bitcoin price and Bitcoin holders on the the US election reviewing three having events it's clear that Bitcoin could experience exponential price growth potentially reaching impressive all-time highs what do you think about hths analysis and hope you got some value from this video please drop your
Comments 0