저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
금 대비 비트코인 강세 전환을 주장하며 AI 추론 비용 급감과 기술 혁명으로 실질 GDP 성장률이 7~8%까지 올라가고 인플레이션은 낮거나 디플레이션일 수 있다고 봄. 정부부채(약 40조달러)는 우려하지만 자산/부채 비율 기준 현재 위험은 과도하지 않다고 봄. 금리 상승은 인플레이션보다 실질금리 영향이 크고 장단기 금리 역전은 과거와 달리 경기침체 신호가 아니며 현재는 롤링 리세션을 지났다고 판단. 신용부도스와프와 하이일드 스프레드는 낮아 시스템 리스크는 없다고 봄.
다듬은 글
And here, very nice, very nice turn, Bitcoin to gold. Bitcoin going up, gold going down. We've talked about the correlation between Bitcoin and gold. Ironically, Bitcoin's known as digital gold for its store of value characteristics. Most important, we went off the gold exchange standard in 1971. We closed the gold window.
And what had been happening before that was starting with the Vietnam War and then the Great Society program. So, it's called guns and butter. The government was financing everything and spending uh you know, spending was somewhat out of control then. Uh that was all accommodated by monetary policy.
And that and and which became unhinged around the gold uh closing of the gold window. And all hell broke loose and from a monetary point of view, we ended up at double-digit inflation. And it took us a long time to work out of that. Uh we think we went too far in the other direction. The market stopped working.
The Fed was really feeding the economy, spoon-feeding. Uh there was still a lot of fear after '08, '09 and uh uh and then again in COVID. But now we think we're back into a situation where the market is working. This is what people fear. So, they're worried. We We see in the headlines we're at $40 trillion of government debt now.
This is terrible. It's above our GDP. Um and what we say is we we agree. We think there's too much government spending because uh government spending is taxation, period. Either now or in the future, or through inflation. So, we agree with that. Uh but, we don't think the consequences right now are as dire as many would think.
Uh why is that? Well, uh if you look at debt to GDP, you're comparing a balance sheet statistic with an income statement statistic. So, what people would say a stock versus a flow. Um and uh and and so, that's one way to look at it. Uh but, there's another way to look at it. Uh more like for like, debt to equity.
Both of those are balance sheet items. And you can see on that basis, uh we're near nearer to the low uh in the context of this history uh than we are to a high. In other words, the wealth generation in this economy and the growth uh are are um are taking the edge off of this statistic. This is the 5-year Treasury yield, and you can see the real yield.
So, broken down between inflation and real, you can see the recent interest rate move is much more a function of real yields than it is a function of inflation. Uh so, you can see, I find it very interesting. I know fixed income investors uh pay attention to every basis point, and uh of course, we in the uh in in the equity market probably are just more focused on percentage points.
So, 100 basis points. Uh but, you'd think some days that that as as fixed income investors and reporters are talking about uh inflation implied uh in the bond market, that inflation was moving out of control. Uh, we look at this and say, "Okay, looks like the bond market market expects this 5-year inflation rate uh, to behave pretty well.
Uh, sure it's above 2% um, but it's kind of been steady state for the last uh, for the last few years. Uh, we actually think it will break down uh, once these um, once the impact of technology uh, is understood more and more by the markets. Here is the yield curve. So, the 10-year Treasury yield uh, versus the 2-year Treasury yield.
Um, and you can see that back in the Industrial Revolution uh, we had an inverted yield curve more often than we had a positively sloped yield curve. What that meant was long rates below short rates. Uh, and then we had uh, the depression um, we had the Fed. The Fed was put into existence in 1913. And since then, whenever any investor has seen uh, an inverted yield curve um, he or she has basically assumed correctly that we were heading into a recession.
That was not true. Now, you can see there were a lot more recessions uh, back then before the Fed. Uh, and that's cuz we were on the gold standard, a price rule. And so, the adjustment uh, the adjustment had to be taken in volume or unit growth uh, in order to keep the price rule in effect. Uh, and so, but you can see that we had inverted yield curves before recessions, after recessions uh, again more than 60% of the time.
Um interestingly, the last uh inverted yield curve we had, and it was quite a lengthy one in the context of uh post-World War history, uh was uh after COVID when the Fed raised interest rates 22 or 24-fold within 16 months. We went into an inverted yield curve, and we think we're in a rolling recession.
Uh certainly, that's what housing, manufacturing, small business, uh lower-income consumers, they were all in recession. Uh for AI inference, the learning curve, that's in black, uh is much more dramatic. It gives you a sense of how much more quickly innovation is happening today. For uh uh Oh, and on this basis, we're not even using Wright's law.
I'll give you an annual uh number. Um the cost of AI inference, so what it costs for ChatGPT to answer your questions, um and this is at a fixed performance level. Uh the costs dropping 99.99% per year. Uh and uh and and so any any activity that involves AI is going to experience significant cost declines.
Now, Jevons' paradox would uh have um have us believe, and we do believe, that as the prices for AI come down, for AI inference come down, the volume will explode, and the revenue growth, think OpenAI, Anthropic, uh think uh SpaceX AI, uh and Muse now. Um those those the volume growth associated with those kinds of price declines uh is going to be explosive, and you can see how AI in purple is uh is having the biggest impact on the other technologies.
So, the cost declines impacting AI will be feeding into these other technologies. And I often say, when we first and I should give Brett Winton, our chief futurist, the the credit for for drawing this. When we first drew this chart, I think there were I don't know if there were any lines between uh the the gold section there, blockchain technology, and AI, but now there are because of agentic payments, agentic commerce, uh uh Grok Bot, Muse, uh
and uh and now bots from uh OpenAI. Uh so, we're going to uh we believe see a lot of deflationary pressure, but it's good deflation. Um meaning, it causes a boom in growth. Uh and I'll just round out the the the red there is robotics, the green is uh energy storage, and the blue is multiomic sequencing.
And as you can see, AI is going to have a profound impact on the mall, and it's probably going to speed up uh the innovation in all of these areas relative to what it would have been without AI. You can see what we expect from real GDP growth uh for or what we did expect for the five years ended in 2030.
Um 7.3%. So, 7 to 8%. We've We've going around with this forecast, and of course, most people think that's crazy. Um because we've never lived through a regime change like this. We didn't go through the Industrial Revolution. And so, we've just been living in this 3% GDP world. Uh well, this is a technology revolution, and we think it's bigger than the Industrial Revolution.
So, you can see going from 0.6 to 3, that was a fivefold increase in the growth rate. Uh we actually do believe we're going to, over time, see much more than a fivefold uh increase in the growth rate. It may take a while to get there, or maybe it won't. We don't know. This is all happening uh so much more quickly than we expected, but we do believe that uh we'll see, you know, high single-digit real GDP growth.
But the other side of that is that we will see much lower than expected inflation, perhaps deflation, uh if these technologies converge the way we think they will. And you can see there the IMF forecast at 3%. Actually, I think the IMF forecast has gone down to 2.5% or something like that. Uh so, effectively, the IMF is is saying, "These technologies are not going to have any impact on real GDP growth." Um we disagree, and uh that's what makes markets, the correlation one to the other.
Over over uh the study we did was back to 2019 when institutions were becoming more interested. The correlation between the two is 0.1. No correlation. Recently, it's been a negative correlation. Uh so, we do think the turn is in here for for Bitcoin. And uh final market statistics, uh you know if you look at uh credit default swaps so insurance policies against against bankruptcy and this is bank credit default swaps they're very low there's no systemic risk even though private credit is still in a difficult moment shall we say it's not feeding back into the banking system you can see here this is these are junk bonds effectively high yield bonds relative to the 10-year Treasury again a little bit of a uptick here but you know in the context of history very low so not a worry in the world though you can see before before recessions they they typically are low we don't think we're in a recession at all we think we came through a rolling recession but so far so good last chart two two last charts here
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