저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
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엔비디아 1분기 실적(매출 260억달러, +262% YoY; 영업이익 169억달러; 총마진 76.3~78.4%)이 가이던스를 상회해 우수하다고 평가. 데이터센터 매출 225억달러가 핵심 성장동력. 다만 경쟁 심화(AMD, 인텔, 클라우드 자체칩)로 고성장은 장기 지속 어렵다고 봄. 2024 top10 성장주 유지, 주가 상승 후에도 선행 PER 29.5배로 상대적으로 저렴하다고 판단해 추천 유지.
다듬은 글
So, Nvidia's financial results are out, I spent a few hours analyzing them, and boy, they're incredible. In the coming days, I will release several videos analyzing Nvidia's results. This will be the first of these, in which I will update my recommendation to buy Nvidia shares. You probably already know that at the beginning of the quarter, I rated Nvidia stock as one of the best to buy in 2024.
I already mentioned that the quarterly results were exceptional, but the share price also increased. So is it time to take profits on Nvidia stock? I will answer this question. Let's start by reviewing the company's metrics: revenue, profit, and cash flow, then look at the valuation, after which I'll update my recommendation on Nvidia kev to find out about the 10 best deals to buy now.
So, the overall revenue turned out to be better than expected. Nvidia received 26 billion in revenue in the first quarter of fiscal 2025. That's a staggering 262% more than a year ago. Incredible growth , better than what we expected from management's forecasts. Remember, just a few months ago, Nvidia management told investors that it expected $ 24 billion in revenue for this quarter.
In fact, they received 26 billion in revenue. That is 2 billion more than we were promised. To make things even more impressive, they reported a gross margin of 76.3% when they reported these quarterly results. In fact, they achieved a 78.4% gross margin. So, better sales and higher profitability from those sales.
Double blow from Nvidia. It is understandable why the stock price rises after such results. Often companies show better-than- expected quarterly earnings, but this comes at the expense of margins. Sometimes they see an opportunity to lower prices to stimulate sales and take advantage of it. The demand for Nvidia products is so high that they sell them at premium prices.
Demand exceeds supply. So they can generate almost 80% of gross profit on their products and services. Excellent profitability . Operating profit jumped to 16.9 billion compared to 2.1 billion in the same quarter last year. This is a 690% year-on-year increase . Now, I want to point out that Nvidia's profits and revenue won't grow at this rate forever.
They probably won't grow at this rate for more than four more quarters. Perhaps that's when they'll start comparing numbers to the quarters last year when they experienced that initial revenue jump thanks to the increasing efficiency of AI. Moreover, competition is starting to intensify. You can already see AMD ramping up supply of its GPUs .
Intel is also working on its own GPU. Large cloud providers are releasing their own chips to try to grab market share, and this will slow Nvidia's growth, even if they haven't caught up with Nvidia in terms of product quality yet. But when you watch Nvidia's success, you'll notice competitors entering the market, spending billions of dollars on research and development, because these are great results.
When you have revenue growing by 260% with a gross margin of around 80%, it's inevitable that competitors will want to get in on the action . This industry is too attractive. These profits are too tempting for competitors not to try or make greater efforts to grab a piece of this market. So accept these results, rejoice in them, but don't expect them to last in the very long term.
But that's okay. Investors in Nvidia stock don't need such numbers to make a solid return on their investment in the company. The data center segment is now Nvidia's main growth driver, growing by 427% to $22.5 billion. This is now the vast majority of the business's revenue. 22.5 billion of the total 26 billion in revenue came from the data center segment.
This is where the demand driven by artificial intelligence comes from. This is what the company's business is based on. This is a major part of her assessment. Perhaps in 5 years the automotive segment, professional imaging segment, or other areas will grow and catch up with data centers. But for now, data centers are the main thing.
Delving deeper into the revenue structure, Nvidia notes that this growth reflects increased shipments of the Nvidia Hopper GPU computing platform, which is used to train and infer large language models, recommender systems, and generative AI. Large cloud providers continue to drive growth by deploying Nvidia AI infrastructure at scale, accounting for about 45% of the data center segment's revenue .
These are large cloud providers such as Amazon with AWS, Alphabet with Google Cloud, Microsoft with Azure, and they are the ones using Nvidia chips to develop their capabilities in the field of artificial intelligence. And we've heard from all these big cloud providers that they're increasing spending on GPUs and their AI infrastructure by billions of dollars.
You can also add Meta Platforms, which was a major investor in Nvidia GPUs. They have all told investors that they are going to increase their spending by billions of dollars and that they will spend more this year and next than they did this year. So, not only will they spend a few billion more this year, but next year the amount of spending on AI processor provider services will increase even more.
Nvidia is the main supplier of these GPUs . An area I'm watching as a hidden growth segment for Nvidia is self-driving platforms and Nvidia's involvement in this area. Tesla and many other electric vehicle manufacturers, as well as automakers in general, are working to expand their capabilities in self-driving cars, and this could be the next driver of growth for Nvidia when the AI wave stabilizes, although that won't happen this year.
This year, the AI wave is growing rapidly. It will probably continue to grow next year, but in three or four years, it is self-driving platforms that will come to the fore as the next catalyst and growth driver for Nvidia. Nvidia has already proven that its GPUs are best-in- class for gaming, right?
We saw this a few years ago, five, six, seven years ago. They were best in class for gaming. And then we saw that Nvidia GPUs became the best for cryptocurrency mining, right? We saw this probably four years ago. And over the last year and a half to two years, we've seen Nvidia GPUs become the best for developing large language models and AI capabilities.
I think we will see a similar trend with AI and self-driving platforms, where Nvidia will become the best computing power provider for this industry, which could be the next big wave and catalyst for Nvidia in 3, 4, maybe 5 years. Operating cash flow jumped to 15.3 billion compared to 2.9 billion a year ago and 11.5 billion a quarter ago.
Of course, you've probably already seen the headlines that Nvidia has announced a 10-for-1 stock split for its common stock. They say they did this to make stock ownership more accessible to employees and investors. I just wanted to briefly mention it in this video. I will be releasing another video specifically talking about Nvidia, stock splits, and what it could mean for Nvidia investors.
So expect it soon. Looking ahead, Nvidia is forecasting revenue of $28 billion next quarter with a gross margin of 74.8%. Given that they have been beating expectations for several quarters in a row , as well as the forecasts of major cloud providers for multi-billion dollar investments in AI, I wouldn't be surprised if Nvidia beats forecasts again next quarter .
But even if that doesn't happen, that in itself would represent significant growth compared to last year. So it's no surprise that you can see Nvidia stock activity in over-the-counter trading. The stock jumped from $930 to $1,020 a share before retreating slightly and is now trading at over $1,000 following the financial results release.
However, if you look at the forward price-to- earnings ratio, Nvidia shares are trading at 29.54, which is still relatively cheap considering the excellent competitive dynamics going forward. So, updating my recommendation for Nvidia stock, you see that it is in my top 10 growth stocks and top 25 stocks to buy in 2024.
I am updating this recommendation today, May 22, confirming that this stock remains on my list of top 10 growth stocks and top 25 to buy, even after such a significant price increase in 2024. Before we say goodbye, let me tell you about the best deal on YouTube. With just one click of a button, you can get a ment experience. So, what are you waiting for? Hit the subscribe button and we'll see you again.
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