저자: Dylan · 외국인
요약 보기
채권시장 불안의 배경으로 Jamie Dimon의 채권시장 균열 경고, 재정적자 및 국채 차환 비용 증가, 무역·관세 불확실성, Moody's 등급 하향을 꼽음. 연준의 국채 매입 움직임은 재정 불안 신호일 수 있으나 일시적 재투자로 보며 추세 확인 필요. SLR 규제 완화 시 은행의 국채 수요 증가 가능성을 언급하며, TLT는 1~2년 장기 관점에서는 괜찮지만 6개월 관점에서는 나쁘다는 입장.
다듬은 글
Hey, welcome back to Two Super Guys Tread Socks. I'm Dylan and I'm Vinnie. And the bond market has been in turmoil. So, we're going to look at a variety of things that's happening. One, this is a very complicated situation. There's a thousand variables of this. So, I've seen a lot of YouTube videos of people trying to dumb this down to like it's for this reason.
It's not. Um, we're going to briefly go over three things that I think are very important and um, three other things that Vinnie already talked about that I'm just going to mention. All right. But it is pretty interesting because here is the here's the TLT. Now, this is not all bonds. This is just TLT.
This is the one that that I'm invested in all that stuff. But it's not specific to TLT. I'm going to show all the charts. Um, so this is going back to what is that? 2003. All right. I've had these red support lines drawn for a very long time and they respect the hell out of them. Um, here are these three yellow lines.
These are rate cuts. Okay, rate cuts. This is your 0.5. This is your 0.25. This is your 0.25 from when the Fed cut rates. Usually when this happens, the opposite happens. Uh usually when when the Fed reduces rates, uh yields decrease, bonds go higher. Now, it's not completely correlated. Um as you can see, we knew here that hey, we're going to be in an environment where we're going to be cutting.
Sorry, this one, not this one. Um so there's some preliminary movement and then some corrections. It's not exactly a perfect science here, right? But in general, it weighs heavily on the bond market, but there are three big factors. I'm not going to really talk about these three specifically because there's nothing to really talk about.
Um there's the big beautiful tax bill. People are worried about this as it will increase the US debt which I am going to talk about. Okay. Um, there is the tariff uncertainty. Kind of pointless to talk about this because I don't know. This is filmed on a Sunday. Uh, could be a whole new situation tomorrow.
I don't know. This is It flips every 3 days. So, I think it's a waste of time to even do videos on this. I don't It's They're out of date 3 days later. So, I don't You acknowledge that it exists, but it's unpredictable is the very nature of it. Yeah. It's it's just complete instability, unpredictability right here.
And then your Moody downgrade. Um Moody said, "Hey, we got too much debt. It's bad." And then more tax cuts will increase more debt. All right, those are the big things. Okay, but we I haven't done a bond video in a while. I've been kind of waiting to see what develops. And these are the things that I think are more important.
Okay, you have your Chase CEO statements, total debt limit, secret treasury buys and banking reform. Okay, these are the things that I personally think are in addition to Moody's downgrade. That was bad. Weighing fairly heavily. It's not that I don't I don't put stock in the treasure in the in the tariffs.
I just I don't know what's going to happen. So, yeah, I don't know. Yeah, absolutely. They they change from minute to minute. Yeah, I don't. It's just pointless. All right. So, here's your US 10-year uh Treasury yield. You see this scary scary spike and then your 20-year Treasury yield. Scary scary spike.
Spiky spiky spiky spiky. It's put in uh housing rates very high. Not this one, the 10-year one. Um here is this was pretty huge. Okay, so CEO Jamie, is it Diamond? Yeah, Jamie Diamond. Diamond. Okay. Yeah. Uh, warned Oops. Let me go back. Sorry, guy. Warned of a crack in the bond market. Sorry if you heard my baby shriek just now.
Uh, warned of a crack in the bond market. He said, "You're going to see a crack in the bond market. It is going to happen." And I tell this to my regulators, some of you who are in this room, I'm telling you, it's going to happen and you are going to panic. Wow. It's just what you want to see. Perfect.
Yeah. one of the most powerful influential people in world economics as far as like banking goes and then certainly in the US it's the largest bank in in the world by market I mean uh assets sorry now and he said you know because of co 19 we know we we had huge sums of money we don't know really know the full effect of that when we started borrowing and spending the funny thing is you really get to see journalism at its finest here because a lot of articles ended right here let's go to the very next thing he said.
I'm not going to panic. That was cut out. Uh we'll we'll be fine. We'll probably make more money. And then some of my friends will tell me we like crises because it's good for JP uh Morgan Chase. So, um he did say down here, this was interesting. If we are not the preeminent military and the preeminent economy in 40 years, we will not be the reserve currency.
uh you know just read history and then we shouldn't be stockpiling Bitcoin. We should be stockpiling guns, bullets, tanks, planes, drones, and rare earths. H that's pretty fascinating. I mean, we we've had a comment or two that's been like, "I've been stockpiling uh brass and lead for my uh doomsday plan." And um I guess Jamie Diamond agrees.
Yeah, I mean, smart guy. Um, so real quick, I just want to briefly touch on debt. All right, so the theory is Trump needs we well, not Trump specifically, but we have to refinance our debt. Okay, and we are currently at an average of 3.27% or 3.32% depending on what source you look at. Okay. Um, over half of US uh debt owned by the public will mature in the next three years.
a lot of it. I think it's like nine billion this year. Um, and it will have to be refinanced at a higher interest rate. Thus, this will add 200 to 250 billion in annual interest, which is the last thing you want when you have 36 trillion in debt. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, we talked about that a little bit before that that that also part of that is inter agency borrowing.
So, debt owned by the public is actually a lower number than that. So, but yeah, still close to 30 trillion. It's a lot. It's a lot. Now, this was making headlines. Okay. Initially, I was very happy about this, but I'm gonna I'm gonna play devil's advocate for this one. Okay. Have you did you see this or No, no.
I was saying I looked at the Federal Reserve balance sheet this week and it was still going down is what I saw, which this would not jive with. Yeah. Yeah. I agree with you. I agree. Okay. Here's the I'm going to go back, but this is the the Federal uh reserve balance sheet. It is still going down. You're correct.
So, I saw this. I was like, "Oh, that's awesome." And then I also went right to the Federal Reserve balance sheet. I was like, "Wait a minute." Um, so the US Federal Reserve, this was uh from Yahoo, just pulled off something stealthy over four days last week. This was, I believe this was right before May 21st.
Uh the Fed vacuumed up 43.6 billion in US treasuries, uh 8.8 8 billion in long day 30-year bonds and another 34.8 billion earlier in the week. Um, and then they gave you this scenario. Quickly returning to the quantitative easing uh isn't standard Fed housekeeping. It's like a bank robber returning to the scene because he forgot his car keys.
Yeah. What do you make of that? I mean it like if this is real and this is like continuing trend that that worries me, you know, because like what scenario are they are they doing here? like yeah I understand that this auction was not well participated in for US debt the most recent ones um and then the Federal Reserve maybe stepped in to add some liquidity there because they were just getting you know kind of under um what's the word I want to say here um under purchased or under yeah um you know kind of capitalized there for people buying these US Treasury bond auction so a that's scary that that's like debt markets seizing up sort of thing um so the Federal Reserve would have to step in in that that scenario, but that's bad for inflationary pressures.
Yes. And I just want to reiterate, I actually don't hold a lot of stock into this. I think as cool, you know, once again, this is the the debt sheet going down. There's there's this thing from May 1st, 2024. I just want to share real quick. All right. So, this is a lot of words. I'm you can read this if you want, but it gets very wordy.
Um, all I'm going to read right here is keep a cap on monthly agency debt and agency mortgage back securities redemptions unchanged at 35 billion. Okay. Additionally, the FOMC directed the desk to reinvest any principal payments received from the agency debt and agency MBS holdings in excess of 35 billion monthly cap into treasury securities.
Okay. what I think happened and unless this is a repeated thing, unless we see this again multiple times in June and end of June to July, whatever, I think that they just had an excess of interest on on their assets and they dumped it into treasuries. So, okay, until this happens again, a a one mark is not a trend.
I think this was maybe they just they just had an excess of of interest payments. They dumped into treasuries like it they said they would a year ago. So that's what I'm thinking this is. Yeah. Yeah. I mean that's good. I was gonna say there could be like oneoff scenarios where they have to do it once but if that becomes like a continual trend that's that's something to pay attention to.
Absolutely 100% agree. Um so this is the last thing. Okay. Are you familiar with with the banking rules on on leverage and capital and all that good stuff and the the banking reform vaguely? I mean, I'm not a, you know, controller there, but I I understand that they exist and what some of some of the things that they look at are.
Okay, so let me see real quick. Yeah, so I should do this one first. um reducing supplementary leverage ratio uh which we'll explain what that is right here but basically it can increase the demand for treasuries. Um so the SLR requires a large bank to hold a certain amount of capital capital against their total assets including treasuries.
This can make holding treasuries less attractive uh for banks compared to other assets that might have higher returns. So the theory is you reduce this ratio or excluding treasuries from the calculation could free up banks balance sheets thus they can buy more treasuries thus supporting the bond market.
They could also just not buy the treasuries which I that would be the downside but that's the theory. I mean treasuries are often looked at as like cashlike from a you know kind of accounting perspective too. So it it it doesn't have significant risk, but it does have potential rewards in terms of, you know, four or five percent yield.
That's why Warren Buffett's been loading up on them for the last couple years. Yeah. And all this is saying is that you have bank lobbyists, larger banks that are pushing for reform. And then down here, uh, when asked by Congress in February if the leverage requirements discouraged banks from helping, uh, inter intermediate the Treasury market, drone pal agreed and said it was time to revisit the issue.
And the goal is that this happens in July or August. Okay? So, if this is changed, I think that you're going to see, once again, I hate doing predictions, a flood into the Treasury market because this ratio will have changed. I like it. So, you're saying now is the time to buy all the TLT you can afford?
No, because it could be a long time. I Okay, I don't want to tell anyone to buy anything. I am but I understand that there is a risk and it is riskier than I initially would have thought six months ago if that makes sense all right because there are a lot of factors happening there I don't like the tax bill and tax cuts increasing debt that is very counterintuitive for what's happening um but it is what it is I think it's a solid buy as long as you have a one to twoyear horizon Awesome.
If you have a six-month horizon, I think this is a terrible buy. Yeah, agreed. Pretty much anything can be a horrible buy though in six month horizon. Like that's not a very good time span to be thinking about stocks and investing. I feel like Nvidia' probably work. Yeah. All right. What are your what are your thoughts?
Bonds. The funny part is I I've been thinking about finally buying some TLT and I'm happy to hear this because maybe maybe the time's right. you know, it's going to be a longerterm position. I always want to start building a uh cashlike position with some higher degree of return uh in my after tax brokerage account to fund like early retirement maybe someday.
So, that that's a place where I'm starting to put a little bit of money now. So, that could be the the play TLT as long as it's a long long time because it is unfortunately uh this video could be dead next Friday if Trump announced like a 200% tariff and then like I don't know what's going to happen. Yeah. So, all right, guys.
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