저자: Dylan · 외국인
요약 보기
시장은 트럼프 관세 관련 트윗에 따라 하루 2~3%씩 흔들리는 불안정한 상태. 200일선 아래로 내려갔다가 반등 중이며 100일선과 200일선이 수렴 중. 설문에서 시청자 77%는 12개월 내 새 저점을 예상, 23%는 횡보 또는 상승 예상. 소비자 신용 지표(자동차 대출 연체율 6.6%는 서브프라임 포함 여부 불명확, 신용카드 90일 연체율 12.31%는 2011년 이후 최고)와 학자금 대출 연체, 주택 미분양 증가(2009년 7월 이후 최고 수준)를 부정적으로 제시. 다만 서브프라임 비중은 낮고 BNPL 손실 기사는 과장된 트윗이라고 평가.
다듬은 글
Hey, welcome back to Two Series Trade Stocks. I'm Dylan. I'm Vinnie. And we did a video last week on if the stock market had put in a bottom or if we're ready for a crash. A lot has happened since that video. That was two weeks ago, actually. So, we're going to we're going to get some updates here on the state of the economy.
And I I would really like I put the poll up again. I want to see how many people changed their mind. I'll show you the results real quick, but just real quick, here's the cues. long long you know this is I don't know year and a half two years um you can see we were under the 200 that's this big blue line that's the one that disrespects so much and we popped up hoorde okay this is we're like three tweets right here were three Trump tweets and then boom jumped up right there was uh tons of tariffs more tariffs okay maybe not all right no tariffs and then we just had a tweet okay some tariffs So, this is really hard to follow.
Um, we're in a world where the stock market may change 2 to 3% a day based off of a tweet, right? We just had, "Hey, by the way, might bring back EU 50% tariffs." Down day. All right, we opened up pretty low. Um, so what I want to know is what do you guys think? I'm going to throw some other factors in here.
um some unusual whale tweets that have been circling around and are slightly misleading. Um but we are above this 200 moving average. This 100 and this 200 moving average are meeting. Do you remember what this is called when they cross? So if it it's a death cross if the 100 goes over the 200, right?
I think so. And it's like the golden cross if it's the other one. Yeah, I think so. If the 100 crosses over the 200, I think. Yeah. And then we did a a video looking at every time that's ever happened like over a year ago. Turns out it's right about 55% of the time. So it's not slightly better than a coin toss or I remember it was somewhere like 57 or something.
But here's the poll. So we had about 200 votes. It was you know 25 75 about 3/4 of people said we will have a new bottom within 12 months. Now, this was about right here. Okay, that's when we released this. So, I can't believe we got 200 responses, man. That's amazing. Thank you. Yeah, that's pretty cool.
Um, I just put up another one. So, there's zero, I would assume. I I just put up right before this we're filming this. Um, but new bottom within 12 months, 77% and then, uh, bottom not going to happen. We're going to chop or go higher 23%. So, here is some of the stuff that's going around. All right.
Now, I feel like I see these headlines all the time. Like, I feel like this is just one of those things where so I kind of looked into some of the stuff unusual whales says it's a little bit misleading. Um, for instance, they did a tweet uh they just said autoloan delinquency rate hit 6.6%. I believe they left out subprime, but I'll have to look.
It is subprime mortgages that are going very high. What is a subprime mortgage? It is if you are below a 620 credit score is I believe the one they go for. So this one and it was only 16% of new loans. All right. So there's a lot of stuff on. Now don't get me wrong, it's high. That's too high. That's not good.
Yeah. But we were in a place where this was like 20 22% of loans and we're actually it's actually going down. So that's very good news. Here's the actual um um billions of dollars per loan credit score. So there's all these tiers, mid-prime, whatever. Um but 620 is usually your subprime. Yeah, that's basically no no significant volume there as far as dollar amounts compared to the other ones.
It's good. But the tweet looks scary. Yeah. All right. Then serious credit card delinquencies has risen to 12.31% the highest level since 2011. This one's not good. This one's legit. Um so percentage of people with credit card debt 30 days and I did 90 days. Um they had what was there? 60. Oh no. Serious delinquency is 90 days but serious series is 90.
You're right. So you can tell a that number is it's not the highest income or or US but it is if you when you look at lowest income 10% of zip codes you know we're approaching that 15% for 90 days that is that's high that's too high that is not sustainable right that we haven't seen that since 2002 2003 so that's a problem that's not good more evidence A ton of people are hurting.
I don't Are you going to talk about student loans at all in this presentation? Because I saw it kind of it is in here. Boom. There we go. Um, now serious delinquency rates by type of loan. So, obviously, student loans have skyrocketed because I kind of we kind of changed what we were doing a little bit.
Um, but you know, skyrocketed. I guess I shouldn't say skyrocketed. Yeah. It was something like I think it's five million plus borrowers that are like no no no longer making payments. Yeah. Um and another four million that were like close to like serious delinquency levels. I want to say uh I saw an article on CBC about it this week.
Uh just crazy to think that like I want to say I did the math and it was like 9 million people total are either just simply not paying it or I've gotten to the point where they're um they're in default or have a serious delinquency which is like said typically greater than 90 days. Yeah. I also want to throw this up there because whoever thought it was cool to put four shades of uh green.
Yeah. Why would you do that? Like I'm not I'm not color blind, but I'm I'm right there. This is incredibly difficult for me to read. I don't I can't It's not easy for me. Silly and frustrating. You New York. I was like, why would you guys do that? Um all right, houses real quick. This one's rough. So 60% of households um unable to afford a $300,000 home and then the average 30-year mortgage rate is now above 7% as we just saw from Vinnie's video.
So to get that that is using this rule of a 28% rule of mortgage payments, property tax, and insurance um limits how much a household can spend on a home. So it's it's for if you're putting down a down payment and a certain amount of your income, right? Which to be fair, you should not be exceeding 28% of your total household income.
That that'd be a lot. That's too much. Don't be Don't be house poor. Yeah. Exactly. Yeah. It's it's a it's a bad idea. This is the scary chart, right? So, this is number of unsold completed homes for sale. Highest level of completed unsold homes since July 2009. Interesting. Great. That's what we want to see, right?
Perfect. I I can see it. I mean around me like every every new home under construction is 800,000 plus you know. Yeah, but it's it's just crazy. I don't know about you, this is off topic, but also the build quality for me in Arizona, the new homes terrible. Yeah. Like o there's like a whole thing that just burnt down.
Um you're familiar with CLA like a like a firm all those, right? Afterpay and all those companies. Yep. Yeah. So buy now pay later, right? uh saw its losses double in quarter 1 after $136 million in customer debts went unpaid. So here's the actual thing that happened. The Swedish payment startup said its net loss of the first three months of 2025 totaled 99 million significantly worse than the 47 million it uh it was a year ago but it was due to one-off costs related to depreciation sharebased payments and restruct restructuring.
And then I want to show this paragraph here. So first quarter consumer credit card uh sorry consumer credit losses rose 17% and then the portion of loans not paid back increased from 0.51 to 0.54% globally. So it's a little bit of of a misleading tweet. It you're on mute Vinnie. That's a very misleading tweet for sure.
A little bit. It was like all right. I mean I get it. It's not good, but it's making it sound very different. Um, yeah. So, I just want to know how you guys feel about this. If you're still on, hey, bottom is in or we're going to have a new bottom within 12 months. I know this is a difficult question to ask.
A tweet tomorrow could make us go up 8% or down. I don't know. We have no idea. This is a terrifying market. So, let us know what you guys think. Yeah. Catch the next one.
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