저자: DanIves · 외국인
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댄 아이브스는 엔비디아 실적이 AI 랠리의 분수령이며 1995~96년과 같은 국면으로 AI 붐이 아직 초기라고 주장한다. 엔비디아 시총이 4조 달러에 이를 것이라고 전망하고, 칩 1달러 지출이 기술 섹터 전반에 8~10배 승수로 파급된다고 본다. 소프트웨어 등 2차·3차 수혜로 나스닥 2만 포인트까지 갈 수 있다고 말한다. 금리 인하 기대와 함께 대형 기술주 상승 장세가 이어질 것이라는 견해다.
다듬은 글
hi stock investors JJ here welcome back we've got Dan Ives from W bush today I'm going to react to him talking about Nvidia and the mag 7 upcoming earnings he thinks they're going to knock it out of the park and it's a really important moment let's see what he's got to say and I'll react to it let's get straight into it lot lot writing on this report you have a new note out uh let's just start with this I'm just looking at the estimates these are the estimates Revenue growth of 112% eps growth of 125% um just ask astronomical it's like a head she shaking your head and you're one of the biggest fans of can they do it this is this is what's expected they've got to beat the expectations surely for the stock to go up further will they do this company can this company meet these expectations can it even exceed them is just meeting them good enough for investors well meeting them is not good enough but I believe this is going be a drop the mic moment for The Godfather of AI Jensen Nvidia because Jensen Nvidia has changed his name there Godfather of AI is full of catch phases let's see what is a string of catch phases are today drop the mic moment for nid well could be we'll have to see can they be the expectations again and again and again all of our checks are showing this is accelerating and I think the street like you said every quarter prove it prove it this revolution is just starting but it all starts with Nvidia in my opinion it is the most important earnings not just of the Year potentially in many years because of what this represents in terms of attack so okay 152% year to date up Nvidia can it go higher it had that dip of course went down 27 28% investors got a bit freaked out there that this was the end and then the tech was going to be a tech crash now we have Jal came out with an interest rates indicating that they're going to put interest rates down now and this Market took off and nvidia's way back up not since then but it's will it Propel it even higher and then earnings coming out it's kind of looking good but we just don't know it's had to predict so I've been asking a lot of people this is it the earnings that matter or the guidance because the expectations are lofty let's say they they meet or beat when it comes to revenue and EPS but the guidance isn't what people expecting what does that do to the stock what do you think it does to the market it's all about the guidance but but all I we just got back from Asia all of our checks are showing street is still underestimating this acceleration because right now the only game in town is Jensen and really if you look what Nvidia is doing especially from coming forward this Enterprise demand is just starting in my opinion of course pal Jackson Hole is so important huge obvious pal Jackson Hall so he did come out Jay pal the speech Just hours ago talking about the possibility of all probability they're going to cut rates and you didn't even have to read between the lines he said there and they said there's room to do more to to do more than one so I think the market is pricing in rate Cuts now whether they're right or wrong about how many there are going to be but Dan Ives didn't know that here and that's definitely something that's it looks like it's going to happen now the but the market what it's going to do for the rest of the year and I could argue even in 2025 it starts with this Nvidia earnings and I expect get the popcorn ready it's going to be you said this every quarter D get the popcorn ready popcorn moment as he called him out saying he says there a recorder and he has that's one of his favorite say but this this is going to be a showstopper showing where the revolution's going and I think the Skeptics continue to get proven wrong what about the questions um the air pocket between different iterations of their chips uh some of their customers making their own chips and the fact that the AI uh enthusiasm seems to be dying down you're not concerned about any of that it takes a while to make chips to organize that and you know there are there will be competition eventually surely but we have to see so by the way if you're getting value out of this episode so far do remember to hit I really appreciate that let's hear from and more so what's hit on them for a delayed 2 to 3 months it's I view that as sort of an aster in other words this is not moving the needle in terms of from a demand perspective when you talk about AI in terms of some of the hype look what we saw from the hyperscalers Amazon Google Microsoft what nadela talked about what leases Sue in AMD the messy of AI paler in terms of the use cases the messy of AI paler that's up quite a lot we'll see that on the screen in a minute I think third fourth derivatives are just starting to play out so when I look at what the Godfather VI Jens and Nvidia are doing this is we're talking about transformation I believe a year from now this is a $4 trillion market cap along with apple $4 trillion market cap in a year that he said it so let's see this come back to this in a year if you're watching this in a year was it true is NVIDIA $4 trillion now market cap it did say their palente is up 87% on the year it's really getting up there to isn't it it's definitely an AI play that's actually they're implementing Ai and what they're doing with their customers right now and Microsoft by way you changing his last name this Jensen Nvidia It's Not Jensen Wong anymore you just decided look this is you're making decisions I want to get back to your note um according to your research for every dollar spent on Nvidia chips it kind of flows through to the rest of the tech sector to8 to $10 um what does that mean for some of these other stocks that's the most important thing because remember it's not just about Nvidia it's about the multiplier it's about the Evolution the trillion dollars of capex for every dollar spent on an Nvidia chip there's an 8 to 10 multiplier across the rest of the tech that's why it's spent on Tech not not made $1 for NVIDIA spent on chips 8 $10 spent across Tech he's saying that's his opinion that it's going to be happen so there's definitely a lot more but when's the profit when when are these companies going to make money from AI Palante teer there's people expectations of that and they're doing they're actually selling products their products a products in the marketplace now so they're one that's doing well as well as nid rarely in terms of sales it's so important in terms of what Nvidia says for this bull market to continue so you're saying it's a broad Tailwind it's not just it's a rising tide that's going to lift all boats because it's not just even the software because software seems to be under pressure uh or at least it was when it comes to this AI craze and it seems like a lot of the money that was going to software has gone to chips but even next week you'll hear from Benny off and sales force what are they focused on AI look at mcder in service now in other words it's just starting now the software wave is the second third derivative that's what I think we're sitting here a year from now nasak 20,000 and it continues because now the rest of this party it is only 9900 p.m.
in the AI party that goes to that we believe it goes to 4:00 a.m. to 4: not to Sunrise but it stops at 4 4 a.m. and look ding ding ding the AI party is going to 4:00 a.m. it's only 9:00 p.m. you said that before that's one of his favorite catchphrases will he be right what he of course what is really implying there apart from the jokes is that it's the that he's comparing it to the Doom bubble you know he will say that it's like 1994 95 or something like that and it's not 1999 that implies it's going to be a bubble here and you should we be happy about a bubble forming and it keeping on going for years I mean that could be dangerous for the whole economy well there be times music stops and there's glass in the yeah but right now what we hear next week it shows this party the music continues to play on I know Tech is really a real housee but you look at the broader Market as well we're going to show a chart this is the mag 7 and the S&P equal weight since the start of this quarter the equal weight outperforming the mag 7 um when it comes to that mag s trade how important are these earnings we had our data team run the numbers uh imply volatility post earnings 10% up or down what do you think this report does to that Mega cap Tech trade that AI trade Etc they're the torch bearers of this rally that continues and I think it's just the start look what's happened with apple in terms of the new iPhone the AI story will be led so video stops the broadening because that's what we're seeing right now with equ it's the broadening of the market people are putting their money in other places especially cyclicals ahead of a cut it's true broading in the market today with the cut with the announcement of cuts really the Russell 2000 small cap index went up 3% on that day so could it be a broadening out to smaller caps as well as throughout T you're saying that this report could actually change some of those flows well I think it does and I think ultimately t will lead the market higher from a large cap perspective we look into year end and I think Mag 7 actually outperforms but but again many have been skeptical the Bears in hibernation mode they've been negative on big tech for the last few years but when it comes down to numbers when it comes down to his Revol this is a 1995 almost 1996 moment but not a 1999 bubble moment not 1999 bubble moment no dread the thought but he did say basically sang that's what's going to happen what do you think about that do you think it's going to go on for Years yet or are we near the top of this AI bub was it will the music stop he said the music will stop and impli it will start again what do you think what do you think Nvidia is going to have a mic drop moment here and the earnings coming up or if you're watching this after did it happen comment on that on what happened was Dan IES right about that now talking about the mag s in your portfolio do you have it in your portfolio do you have any other stocks like Palante tier this here I have an offer for share site here for my viewers you can sign up for free and see but the premium there's a Premium plan there this is a landing page I'll put a link in the description to the landing page where you can read all about it it's a it's a portfolio platform reporting and tracking tool do you really know the True Performance of your portfolio you can bring in stocks automatically when you make trades and historically too to see the True Performance of your portfolio over time including dividends and all that do you actually know that if you don't sign up to this and you can see a video here a short video telling you all about it on that landing page I'll leave a link as I said and I'm going to leave a link to a video that YouTube thinks that you should watch next here on the screen thanks for joining me today and I'll see you in the next ones thanks for your company
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