저자: DanIves · 외국인
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Tesla 주가가 실적 미스(4분기 연속) 및 로보택시 발표 연기로 하루 12% 이상 급락. Dan Ives는 로보택시·AI 스토리 기반으로 여전히 강세 유지, Tesla를 가장 저평가된 AI 종목으로 주장하며 AI 가치가 1조 달러 이상일 수 있다고 봄. 반면 Nelson(분석가)은 매출 미스와 마진 하락을 이유로 Buy에서 Hold로 하향, 12개월 목표가 240달러 제시하며 10월 로보택시 행사 전까지 단기 촉매 부재를 지적. 자막상 발언자 구분이 불분명해 Dan Ives 발언과 Nelson 발언을 함께 기록.
다듬은 글
hi stock investors JJ here welcome back well Tesla's taken a tumble in the markets over 12% here and we're going to see what Dan IES has got to say about this he's still bullish of course he says you know it's the most undervalued in the market out of in the AI space and then we've got here a downgrade of Tesla but let's look at the market look at that what happened today Tesla there of course down nearly well well over 12% there in one day that's it's that's pretty volatile even for Tesla but it's had a big run up we see even Microsoft down there over 3.5% Nidia the chips taking a tumble there 6.8% anyway this was definitely a down day we're hitting for correction in the mag 7 I just made a video about that that Ed yard thinks that that's happening it's 8% already in the mag 7 so let's end Tesla way over that but it's had a big run up okay let's see what Dan IES has got to say for himself about he doesn't look so happy there let's see what's going on the market reaction we're seeing in Tesla today it's pretty extreme how much of this is because Elon Musk tried to Pivot to this idea of Robo taxi and then couldn't deliver because he had to delay the whole event yeah I mean I think it sharpens the knives between the Bulls and the Bears because the Bears will argue gross margins missed price Cuts continue to happen lower asps but but in my opinion this story is about AI robotaxi Robotics and really actually a price stabilization that's happening and I think demand that ultimately starting to turn the corner in China so for me I'm actually more bullish today on the Tesla autonomous Robo taxy story than 24 hours ago because you got the date I think outline maybe what I believe is going to be sort of the the Prototype and actually pretty bullish on where they expect to actually start to see a den he say this year I think potentially into next year all right we have Okay so we've got the robotaxi announcement that Elon met on the call 10th of the 10th rather than the 8th of the 8th so that was delayed that disappointed the market probably and then then what came out in the fundamentals which he didn't really mention there that they it pretty much look like a car company now and over on the main Channel I made a video about that why Tesla tumble to go and see that if you want to uh I'll leave a link to that in the description or the link to the channel there in the description but Rob taxes that's he's saying that that's the big Catalyst here coming up but really in the meantime I mean when's the revenue starting to come from that that's the problem there he can be he talks about the story okay so the story has definitely been carrying the stock but can it continue I mean what if it's 2 years before we see any kind of revenue from this we're going to have quarter after quarter of these these Auto margins and and lackluster results from from Tesla auto although energy did was 100% growth but it's small part of the business so so far we have a date for the event which is October 10th but we don't have a date for when things actually get going and he's notorious for kind of pushing things off into the future in the meantime Tesla doesn't have enough of a lineup to really get people to come in and buy its existing car so what does Tesla do until the robo taxis really trickle down to the bottom line you go back three months ago you know obviously stocks 140 the Bears thing is going sub 100 look where it is today so the point is the reason we are where we are today is investors are now starting to recognize the AI store I think Tesla is the most undervalued AI play out there we think AI alone could be worth a trillion dollars to the name as also this name is stabilizing from a demand and pricing perspective I'm going to ask you it's all F it's all future you know this is there at the moment it is just a story there's zero dollars coming from this stuff anything like robotaxis or robots or AI anything like that there's pretty much zero we could say the AI involved with FSD and they are making some revenue from that but it's in immaterial and he's he's talking about a trillion dollars Elon Musk on the call was talking in multi- trillion dollars for these things of course what Elon Musk has been asking users on X should he invest through tesla5 billion in xai we've said it we talked about publicly this is a no-brainer because to me it's all about Tesla further and further doubling down on the AI story and I think that's what investors want to see I have never from the beginning viewed Tesla as an auto company I view a disruptive technology name but that's why look the Bears are going to come out today they definitely on the on the margin Miss that's why the stock's down but I believe we sit here weeks months from now and investors now start to focus more and more on 1010 the market re interesting so focusing on 1010 we've got we've got a while to that what's the stock going to do in the mean in the meantime until then I might talk more about this on the channel here do a video about about Tesla again a follow up to this white Tumbl and maybe talk more about Danes too but let's now go to this one downgrading Tesla due to lack of near-term catalyst the downgrading we'll talk about that and a second but first I want to tell you that I'm proud to have partnered with shares site as an affiliate to bring my audience my viewers my community a special offer it's a if you're not sure what what sharite is it's a a portfolio tracking tool and reporting tool it really helps with tags makes tax easy for all in one as it says here all your investments in one place not all over the place so if you got a different Brokers different assets you can bring it in there and I'll just play a few seconds of this video to explain a bit more that that about what it is and you can go to this page I'll put a link in the description to go and see this and you can see the rest of this video and much more information on here and the offer of course here's how it works import your trading history with just a few clicks either from your broker from a spreadsheet or manually sharite organizes all your investments in one place no matter where the assets live so that you can track your total performance market prices currency movements and okay so that's the thing I do that automatically bring in trades into it some comes from the broker automatically I don't do it manually so it's pretty easy and it it gives you a true and total performance of your portfolio so as I said I put a link to the in the description to that if you want to check that out you can also sign up for free of course see that sign up for free and just check it out there's some free features there if you and but and you can take up the offer if you want to later so but do use that referral Link in the description okay let's get back to this this this is the bare case downgrading Tesla due to lack of near term near-term catalyst and was talking about that there's nothing really in the near to him it's all story it's all in the future oh you have to believe in what elon's saying that that will come through Elon actually said in the court don't own Tesla stock and yes you believe in robot taxes and in FSD that it's going to come through so let's see what Nelson has got to say here what did you think of what you saw and you heard from the call and and also from the report um did it change your price Target or your rating on Tesla yeah no question it was a disappointing earnings release they missed by 10 sense uh you know and this is the four straight quarter that they've missed so um you know in the aftermath of the earnings released we've actually downgraded the stock from a buy to a hold uh our 12-month price Target is now $240 and the stock has really had a impressive rebound since their last earnings release in April the stock was up almost 70% so the taret is still above what it is now I think it's down was only down 7.34% here it went down 12% not sure what it is what the actual price is right now as I speak but it that's not not too low there but shortterm no short-term Catalyst and so um you know in in light of that and also what we think is a lack of near-term catalysts here with the robo taxi day uh having been delayed a couple months until October there's really not much in the way of of near-term development we we don't think in the story and so we felt it was appropriate uh to move to a hold and we will you know revisit that rating in October we're going to get to okay so thinking about near term catalyst we've got the 10th of the 10th that the the robotex reveal it's going to be interesting to see how the market reacts to that and there won't be any Revenue coming from that straight away it'll be more on this is what it is this is what's going to happen and there'll be a longer wait so that could be a catalyst in terms of the story as Dan IMS was talking about but not for actual numbers not for the fundamental so quarter after quarter we're going to see we we may see some lackluster financials but this by the way this is not Financial advice this just general entertainment and education purposes here you need to se your own Financial advice and do your own work and Tesla of course it's very divisive so it's not a recommendation to buy or sell at all needless to say get to the the road ahead for Tesla in just a minute uh going use that pun one more time but Garett on a serious note um our data team working overtime I want to show you a chart when it looks at the gross Auto margin for Tesla um the slide that we've seen in Gross Auto margin how concerning is that if you're a Tesla investor I mean really margin that's really where they have the advantage over other automakers it it is concerning and it's a reflection of uh EV pricing that has come down so much over the past year and a half um and also the recent launch of the Cyber truck anytime you launch a new model especially a kind of a niche product like the Cyber truck that's more difficult to mass produce than say the model 3 or the model y you know that's really going to weigh on margins overall and so you know they they indicate it's true was it was it a mistake to produce the Cyber truck when they did should they have been going for this cheaper model say 25k I mean there reports here byd in China is bringing out pretty cheap models and should Tesla have done that first Tes byd is selling a lot of course is 100% tariffs in the US so they can't really sell there even but one of them was I think $111,000 for an SUV equivalent but even in double even with 100% tarff that's cheap but it's hard to it's equivalent would they have to change it for the US market they all all these kinds of things but having said that did was it a mistake to produce cyber truck even though it's people some people think it's an iconic vehicle some people hate it a lot of celebrities are buying it is a good from that point of view but not necessarily for the fundamentals just yet how and how will it ramp up how they will they ramp up to be a lot or is it a kind of Niche product indicate on the call they haven't yet hit the point of profitability on the Cyber truck they're continuing to ramp that up and so that's really weight on margins but you know long term we still like the story uh you know we think there's significant significant margin expansion uh potential over time as they sell more full self-driving subscriptions and as they continue to improve uh their product there and so you know importantly software sales are extremely high margin unlike automap manufacturing which is very low margin business and so over time that's going to be a creative to their margins yeah okay so getting to the software obviously software gross margin for software is huge if you look at some of the the SAS software companies if they can do that become more software FSD that that is a kind of line of sight to much better margins and much better profitability rather than just selling Autos the metal Benders notoriously low margins so what do you think let me know in the comments about you know if do you think that what's going to happen to Tesla in the short term or and in the long term let me know in the comments I might be making another video on Tesla today over at the art of value Channel leave a link in the description to the art of value if you're not subscribed over there but do subscribe here and drop us a like if you've got value out of this video it's a new channel to help help the algorithm to to find to find this Channel and also do don't forget to check out share site there for that special offer and I'm going to put a link on screen to what YouTube thinks that you should watch next now and a subscription link to this channel so go and see that video now if you want to and thanks to everybody for watching and I'll see you in the next one
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