Alibaba Stock: Super Investor Michael Burry Just Won Big in China

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마이클 배리가 알리바바·JD닷컴 등 중국 주식을 보유해 최근 큰 수익을 냈다고 소개. 13F 기준 알리바바 약 17.5%, JD 약 10%(비중 추정). 중국 정부 부양책 기대와 증시 급등 후 단기 조정 상황을 전달. 과거 매수 시점과 수익률을 설명하고, 향후 방향은 확실치 않다고 정리. 'Goldman 15~20% 추가 상승 가능성' 등 외부 전망을 인용하되 진행자 본인의 방향 예측은 명확하지 않음.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. hi stock investors JJ here welcome back well Michael Barry of big short Fame made a killing in The Big Short by shorting the US housing market we've all seen the film super investor Michael bur here is now taking a big bit on Chinese stocks a few in particular and he's been winning big recently with the rise in the Chinese stock market we'll take a look at those stocks we'll take a look at the Rises and maybe what's going to happen next we'll have a look at the Outlook things that have been happening in the macro there in the stock market so let's get into it so this is Michael bur's portfolio here and this is from a portfol where we can see his overseas International stocks as well and data Roma which a lot of people use you can't see this biggest one British American Tobacco is actually has largest position at 17.57% of the portfolio and next of course is Ali barara 17.53% of the portfolio really it's only 11.2 million which is fairly small really so you'd have to think that he's got a lot of cash actually he's not fully invested which probably shows his thinking about the US market so he's got some in other countries but the US market a lot of people are saying it's fairly expensive the the multiples are creeping up there everything suddenly seems more expensive than it did even a few months ago with AI roaring and other stocks starting to creep up as well but I digress let's get back into this so Alibaba is his biggest holding here in the Chinese market and then we go down and we've he's got buy do as well 6.5 so that's 10% of the portfolio or his assets there that are actually invested right now and next right under that is jd.com at 10.15% about the same amount there so those are the stocks three fairly decent bets in terms of percentages in the Chinese market there and how have they been doing if you've been taking notice if you've been watching the previous videos on this channel I talked about David teer and how he was pounding the table for Chinese stocks in the last couple of weeks he's been bding that's that's another video we're going to focus on Michael bur here so this is dat Roma here as I said so you can see here this only shows his US Stocks here but these Chinese stocks are listed on the US market K we can see here his activity which is the interesting part over the past few quarters we can see in Q2 Q3 hasn't come out be super interesting to see what he's done in the third quarter of anything he might just be sitting on it writing it if he sold them before this big run up that would be disappointing for him and perhaps for us as viewers watching him work do his magic not always magic everybody makes mistakes but we can see here in Q2 by do he added he added 87.5 7% to that position there and barber he added 24% there and he's bought a lot which which aren't on the US market and there well a few bought a few I doesn't say a lot but he's actually been selling a few he tends not to hold things for a very long time so it makes you wonder when he's going to get out of the Chinese market he's a deep value investor so buys things that are super cheap waits till they rise he doesn't really wait till they're overvalued he seems to get out when things around what he thinks a fair value or maybe a bit more if you you might know you might remember he was in GameStop before that turned into a meme stock he bought that super cheap it went up to a reasonable level it went up Way Beyond that and but he did make money from that JD look at that he reduced 3.56% and in the quarter before that we can see in terms of Chinese stocks JD he added 80% to that there Alibaba 66 so quite significant in q1 2024 and this is before this big runup well before it it was obviously as a deep value getting in before the runup and has to be said we've had plenty of time in the Chinese market for things to turn around a lot of people think it just it wouldn't turn around and bu do was this buy the first buy there for Buu and Q 1224 let's go down to the quarter before that and see the activity he he was in JD added another 60% to their 75,000 shares Alibaba added 50% 25,000 shares and if we go down to the quarter before that we can see where he started to buy Alibaba there in Q3 2023 and also jd.com in Q3 2023 so he was well before this big runup getting in early and let's turn to what's been happening in the market with these stocks his Holdings we can see if year to date we can see alibaba's up 44% so he has been winning he's been winning big but mainly as you might know in the past month or so it's been pretty big news David terer talking about it as it said pounding the table on it just in the last couple of weeks he's been in before the this previous quarter as well Buu is actually down for the year still 9.78 and JD's up 57% for the year and if we go back just a month we can see that alibaba's up 32.2% B's up 27.2% and JD's up 65.2% Michael bar will have done well in the past month the question is is he going to hold them or is he going to sell them we'll have to see what happens or we'll have to wait till the next filings come out for this quarter and we we'll see what happens now if you're getting value out of this episode so far i' really appreciate it if you managed to smash and if you're new here do consider subscribing as well now looking at the Chinese market overall this caught my eye about what's been happening recently this is actually a New York Times article I'm not going to wait young Chinese jump into stock frenzy so the Chinese government's been adding stimulus it's been getting people hyped up even though the economy is bad getting people into the stock market by the sound of it if this is correct despite the risks of investing at a volatile time investors see the recent stock rally as a rare opportunity to make money when China's economy is sluggish and this article outlines some of the things that have been happening there young people in China have jumped into stock trading in the past two weeks notice I said stock trading not necessarily investing since Beijing took its most aggressive steps yet to revive economic growth and persuade consumers to start spending so this bigs the question is it going to continue is the stimulus going to continue is the stock market going to continue it has pulled back if we just look recently this week what's been happening it's actually down it's had a breather taken is it a breather or is this the rally over there Arguments for both sides some people think that that's it it's not going to happen but if we look what's happening just in the past few days in the past hours actually China Finance Minister plans briefing as investors seek stimulus Ministry of Finance will strengthen fiscal policy notice says economists expect fiscal package worth up to 3 trillion one we'll have to see if if that happens but that's the current news Chinese stocks paired losses as the offshore Yan strengthened on the announcement as investors speculated they speculated again trading speculating there's a lot of that that does go on the Chinese market as I understand it the nation May unveil fiscal stimulus at the briefing that's coming up that optimism faded however as Traders reassess the strength of any measures policy makers will make so this is just day-to-day staff investing this longterm is it going to continue David terer thinks that it's going to continue that this is just the start of the Chinese market let's look at some of the commentary quickly and see what they've been saying Chinese stocks Goldman Sachs sees potential for 15 to 20% further gains so David Tas sees more than that what sort of reaction are we expecting from Asian equities given that we didn't get that sort of major stimulus that we were expecting yeah so uh yesterday obviously was a very significant can pull back but I think we have to remember that that came in the context of the market being up 38% from the low on September 11th so we had a a huge yeah we saw that we see that it's been deep closed in the China market and it's it's gone up so quickly there had to be a pullback question is is is this thought of something a bigger pullback or is this not David T said that he was going to double down on his positions if it did pull back and wonder we'll have to see wait until this fting to see if he actually does that huge run and a lot of expectation built up about easing and in conversations with with investors over the past few days in the runup to the ndrc meeting yesterday there were some overly inflated expectations about first of all what might be announced and then the magnitude of what might be announced so what was indicated in various press Rumors in in in in the media uh around the time that Chi Jin ping and then Lee Chung were were making announcements on fiscal was about call it 2 to 3 trillion remund B of stimulus expectations then inflated to up to 10 trillion which was wildly overly optimistic and so I think there were a number of you might call them tourist investors who were unaware that the ndrc meeting was never one that was going to have those sorts of announcements and we have the finance ministry meeting coming up when you see the Ministry of Finance which is where fiscal stuff would be announced number one and number two it's the national people's Congress standing committee meeting end of this month or early okay this is on Reddit posted Here China finance ministry schedules October 12th uh press briefing on fiscal policy and economic growth so have to see what happens at that there there is expectations as he said for that and so that's the macro we don't want to get too far into the macro because these are just day-to-day week toe of things but there's expectations that they will keep the stimulus going if you remember what happened in the US from 2020 you know when the pandemic came along there was massive stimulus and the and the stock market did rocket but as I've joked compared to the US even just in the past few weeks China's saying hold my beer in terms of stimulus in terms of the stock market uh the jump in the stock market was deep lows there's no doubt about that some of these stocks have been trading super low single digit multiples as David terer outlined so we'll have to see what happens in the coming days and weeks and I will keep you informed in the meantime I've just launched memberships on the art of value Channel I put a link in the pin comment and the description so you can check this out if you hit the link and you'll find out what it's all about but basically you get priority comment the other channels growing exponentially so priority comments on there on the art of value Channel Early Access to videos on there members only live streams and videos access to that photos and status updates and member shoutouts now the price of it is just the price of a cup of coffee I wanted to make it not expensive there'll be a mix of the two channels a lot of content that go in there just for members if you are subscribed to both channels you maybe think about doing membership there if you enjoy this today do subscribe to this channel this is relatively new channel I'm going to put a link on screen to one of those David taer videos talking about ali Bara going through that if you haven't seen that already thanks again and I'll see you in the next one