저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
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7월 고용지표가 약세로 나타나며 미국 경제 둔화 신호가 뚜렷하다는 주장. 1분기 GDP 2% 미만, 실업률 상승(Sahm rule 근접), 장단기 금리 역전 및 통화량 둔화를 근거로 든다. 시니어 진행자는 침체 가능성을 90%라 보지는 않으나 연준이 9월 금리인하에 나서야 한다고 주장. 소매주(스타벅스, 나이키) 실적 둔화도 언급. 주식은 아직 상승 추세이며 성장주가 가치주를 압도한다고 평가.
다듬은 글
hi stock investors JJ here welcome back well today I'm going to react to Jeremy seagull Professor Jeremy seagull from Warton and he is saying we are in a slowing economy sees data here and he's got some some implications for that or some suggestions that the FED should do as you know talking about rates let's get into just get straight into what Jeremy seek was saying today you what is your take after this jobs report and the Market's reaction to it yeah you know I think it was a pretty weak report um uh you know when you look look at the details I the jobs report came out and unemployment rate is rising know the headline number beat the revision was beat the details were we're not good we are in a slowing economy uh you know the FED at the beginning of the year last December said that GDP growth this year was going to exceed 2% well we got first quarter that's under 2% and although we're all enthusiastic thinking oh this quarter looks like three then it like two now most of the experts including Atlanta fed and and all the other Banks think it's under two I think it's really time for fed po chairman po to really tea up in the July meeting a cut uh in September okay so he wants a cut he wants the first red cut that to be in September and theyve you know they've been waiting the fed's been waiting there there's been no reason to cut so far even though the market at the beginning of the year said there'll be six rate Cuts or people were suggesting predicting six rate Cuts throughout the year that hasn't happened now they're talking we were talking maybe November December and Jeremy seagull here is saying he's seeing signs of a slowing economy and we have seen in those past earnings just in the recent earnings can retail Brands retail companies have it have definitely seen slowing numbers and we've seen some some big write Downs of the or Draw Downs of the stock price we've seen Starbucks and Nike in particular these retail Brands go and have a look if you want to see the stock prices have been plummeting and others have been coming in Weak and so the FED will be seeing that not just the stock market what stocks have been doing but the the company results themselves that's the important thing it's a voting machine the market but a weighing machine in terms of the results it' be interesting to see Tesla numbers that have come out in J in Late July here so Jeremy seagull thinking there should be a r cut soon that that they should Tee It Up did he say in July and then actually do it in September so rate Cuts coming in so that and of course the election coming up so that changes things in terms of what people look at as well um and maybe another one in November um uh I think inflation is definitely under control in and I don't want to see this slowing economy turn into something worse oh that that's the risk right that as you lay it out that the job market talking about something worse being recession they're slipping into recession which you know a lot of a lot of economists many economists predicted to be one in 2023 it never happened and it's sort of been this goldilock Zone but is it starting to happen now I mean the fed's purpose of raising rat was to slow the economy so the infl inflation bring inflation down and everybody thought there would a recession hasn't happened yet but could it be on the horizon now even Market half the Mandate right let's not forget half the Mandate about employment the job market doesn't get away from the FED just when they think they've got it right yeah absolutely you know there's an economist Claudia Sam sahm who many years ago had had a rule that she uh investigated that when the uh unemployment rate Rises a half percentage point and that was on a thre Monon moving average basis the probability of a recession was well over 90% well guess what uh with today's report we just moved to 1 half% over the low that we hit um uh earlier this year so I'm not saying there's a recet and I don't think it's anywhere near 90% I'm just saying that the FED has to take some of these indicators including the inverted yield curve into account including the slow growth of the money supply which although the inverted yield curve remembering if you don't know that usually quite often there's a recession that happens after Inver y curve I think it's been two years since that it's usually within two years I think it's around two years since that first happened and so that was an indicator and that is a big reason I think why economists thought there would be a recession which they've managed to hold off and Jeremy said was not saying there will be a recession here he's saying that the If the Fed doesn't act there could be because he sees slowing numbers has sto shrinking is not growing fast enough to I think support a strong GDP economy so although I think stocks are still in an uptrend and and the grow stocks still are are certainly walloping the value stocks I think um I think pal has to take note I I feel like you're suggesting that no cut in September means recession on the table no cut in September means this Market might be in trouble uh potentially yes so yeah if they don't cut he's saying if they don't cut rates he wants them to cut rates soon that's the that's the gist of this whole thing he's calling for a rate cut sooner rather than later September which isn't that soon but it's as soon as you know in terms of how fast they move uh and again you know I'm looking at the future listen next next week we get the CPI that's certainly going to be very important we have jobless claims you know I I I like to see them under 240 they've just been tickling that 240 level a break a breakout uh on that why not be preemptive uh the commod market has is under control all the others are under being preemptive he's I mean Fed chair pal said they want to wait there's no reason to go to be preemptive like this they want to see they want to see the numbers and the it's not instant though if they change the rates these you know what's happening now is probably happening because of what they did they've been raising rates and that was quite a long time ago now takes quite a long time for these things to filter through control as you know Scott we' talked so long about the fact that they use realistic shelter cost in their CPI they would be much lower than what they have now um I think he can afford to bring us a more normal Fed funds rate and relationship to those long rates which do see as we saw today a potential slowdown okay so what do you think of that let me know in the comments you agree with Professor SEO here the professor that they should start to cut rates as early as September rather than later on in the year based on what what we're seeing now and also if you I'm going to put a link on the screen now to to a video that YouTube thinks that you should watch next so go see that now if you want to and also subscribe to the channel we're relatively new here posting regularly my reactions to these Daily News of the stock market and economic events so do subscribe if you want to thanks to everybody for watching and I'll see you in the next one
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