What Fed vice chair JUST Said on Double-Dip Recession

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연준 부의장 클라리다 발언을 인용해 자산매입 축소는 '실질적 진전' 전까지 유지되며 금리는 2023~2024년까지 저금리 유지 신호라고 해석. 이중 침체(double-dip) 가능성은 낮다는 연준 입장을 전하고, 백신 기대로 경제 낙관 전망. 진행자는 연준의 긴급대출 권한 제한 시 다음 폭락이 더 깊어질 수 있다고 경고. 영상 내 특정 종목 매매 추천은 없음.

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※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. hey everyone meet kevin here if you're like me then you want to know what the federal reserve thinks about the next potential market crash coming or not coming or when's it going to come or when's it not going to come we want to know this so we can prepare this is why it's such a hot topic on youtube because we want to know if a market crash is coming we want to get ready so we could go grab a cup of coffee go grab some sparkling water and go shopping for some deals it entirely makes sense so let's go ahead and listen to uh richard clarida the vice chair of the federal reserve he's going to give us some insights now he's going to start by talking about what it means in terms of when they're going to slow down their purchases aka when are they going to stop printing money when you hear asset purchases just think okay and so we're going to get his first indication on when they're going to slow down with that then he's going to talk about double dip recession and his expectations for that now if you want to build wealth make sure to use the holiday coupon code linked down below for the courses on stocks and real estate and making money with youtube videos remember you can get that holiday sale going on take advantage of it all right folks here we go i think the big question out of the fed meeting this week that hopefully you can clarify is what does substantial progress look like on your goals so that you would consider pairing back the asset purchases well sarah you know i think the chair said it uh very well substantial progress means we want to make substantial progress to reducing unemployment and moving inflation back close to our uh two percent uh goal uh the coronavirus uh dug a deep hole for the economy the recovery so far has been robust there's a way to go um and so substantial progress obviously we'll come into view as we get closer uh but that's a ways away so right now the focus is on providing the support the economy needs to get us through uh this tough stretch okay so tough stretch coming up there's still going to be print and money for the foreseeable future i think it's funny that you know when they say oh we're going to wait to stop printing money until there's been substantial progress towards you know a recovery uh well you know basically what they're saying is uh we're just gonna keep printing money until we have no idea when we can't tell you because we don't know we're just gonna keep printing money that's why he said we're gonna keep printing money until that progress comes in view aka it ain't yet we're gonna keep printing but i guess it does feel a little ambiguous mr vice chair why not set specific markers so that it is actual guidance well sarah we set specific markers uh for uh interest rates at our september meeting and we think that it's appropriate with regards to the asset purchase program to put down markers in terms of substantial progress as we've indicated and again our communication our sep projections as we get closer to that point uh it'll become clear we think right now this is the best way to communicate our goal to really provide the support the economy needs right now okay pause right there for a second he said a lot of things there basically he said yo sarah we told you we're going to keep interest rates low until 2023 and 2024.

02. i used a bunch of acronyms like scp which stands for summary of economic projections but the bottom line is we told you we're going to keep rates low until 2023 to 2024 because that's exactly what they told us in their sep so he's kind of reiterating hey look the goal is to keep rates low i'll go ahead and pull up the scp really quick just so that way if you haven't seen that before you can get a quick look at what that looks like here you go here's a realistic example what you really want to do is you want to take a screenshot of this right here here let me there pose for your screenshot take a screenshot of this they're literally telling you what their projections are for the gdp for the unemployment rate for inflation these are their estimates uh and and you can you know you can dive deep into this if you care to like oh these are our this is our dot plot for what we think interest rates is are going to be going forward and this is our distribution of participants projections for change in real gdp basically what i showed you in that first picture there where i told you to take a screenshot that's their summary of economic projections okay i'm getting the jargon out of the way what do you freaking think about a double dip recession all right can you get to that already no there was some surprise and maybe a little disappointment that the federal reserve didn't go even farther perhaps increase the weighted average maturity focus on the long end of the curve why did you decide not to do those things which would have been considered stimulative stimulative at a tough time well sarah we think we are providing very ample support for the economy with the combination of our guidance and these purchases which are at a very very robust pace 120 billion uh a month we think that the interest sensitive sectors in the economy autos durable goods business investment are all responding to low rates the contact incentive service sector obviously is going is being hampered by the virus and we think that the current constellation of policy is exactly where we want it to be chair powell also indicated sarah at the press conference that of course in future meetings we're going to be assessing the situation and there are things that we could do with regards to the maturity of our portfolio but right now we like the setting of where policy is and we think it is providing very important support to the economy okay so basically we're happy with our money printing right now we're doing good money printing double dip please one of the worries is the near term and we've seen it already deteriorate retail sales jobless claims how likely is it that we could be looking at a double dip recession well sarah i certainly hope we don't have a double dip and i don't think we will have a doubled up but you are correct the surge in hospitalizations and new cases is clearly uh impacting the economy we're seeing it in some of the data that you've referenced as we've said we could have a rough couple of months in the data but on the other side of this of course we've gotten very very positive news on multiple vaccines that are not only safe but effective indeed this week we began to have those vaccinations deployed that makes me individually very optimistic about the economy as we get into 2021 indeed i and most of our most of my colleagues revised up our outlook for the economy uh over the medium term over the next several years notwithstanding we acknowledge what could be a rough a couple of of months because of the increase in cases that's actually big right here right this is kind of echoing what we heard federal reserve chairman jerome powell say uh you know when he had a speech on wednesday where jerome powell was like this could be the start of a new bull run i mean drone powell is like real estate crash nope stock crash nope p e ratios for stocks not a problem because rates are low housing prices high not a problem because rates are low and part of me is like wait seriously like jerome powell are you just trying to like prop up the market like are you just blowing smoke man well then when i kind of do some calculations and i'm like ah crap wait a minute the economist says 25 of all currency that is in circulation today was created by central banks in 2020 to prop up the markets and rates are at ridiculously record lows it's hard to even say record lows anymore because it's like we keep hitting new lows anyway when you combine those two things it's like i mean i guess it kind of makes sense it still feels rough to pay some of the prices like tesla 675 post split i remember being nervous about paying 675 for tesla pre-split you know it does feel weird but now we got richard clarita echoing again hey you know basically reiterating what jerome powell says and his buddies are like no we actually think look we're going to go through some crap here in the next few months with with deaths and the virus and waiting for the vaccine but beyond that we got good data coming out on the other side is our expectation and and uh we don't see a double dip recession coming yeah i mean i'd love to go shopping for deals again but uh you know it kind of makes me feel like maybe we're not going to see that and we have to adjust to this this new sort of long-term normal i mean part of me sits here wondering like am i going to be looking back and me having filmed this video in 2024 and look back to 2020 and thought damn i should have just gone like all in you know i don't know i don't know well the other factor there of course is fiscal stimulus and i know that you and fedshare powell and so many other economists have called for congress to do something they're discussing it the latest hiccup is actually a new provision introduced by pat toomey republican senator from pennsylvania who actually wants to include a provision that would not let the fed revive its emergency credit lending facilities would that be a mistake well sarah obviously i'm aware that those conversations and negotiations are are ongoing on capital r on capitol hill i'm not a party to them so i won't have uh anything to say on that beyond what we have already said that secretary mnuchin as treasury secretary has indicated uh that the treasury would like the programs to to end as of december 31st and for the fed to return the unused treasury investment the cares act appropriations and we will we will do that but beyond that i don't have anything more for you on the current discussions on capitol hill well leave the discussions aside for a second would it be dangerous if the federal reserve legally were not allowed to revive those credit facilities in the case she's good she's asking the same question from the opposite direction remember this these 13 three facilities have to do with those five federal reserve lending facilities that's what's holding up stimulus right now i hate these programs the programs were stupid uh they were totally underused i mean heavy heavily underused uh you know the municipal credit facility was barely used the in fact here i got it right here look at this this is the municipal liquidity facility only point two percent was used the main street lending program we had six billion out of six hundred used that's one percent we had eighteen percent usage at the um secondary mortgage corporate credit facility which was like uh the corporate bailout the stock market bailout zero used in primary 3.8 used for the term asset-backed securities loan facility like these facilities had such little use relative to the money that was available for them now i'm not saying that they weren't useful but gosh just stopped talking about these these facilities that the economy and the markets would need them well we have said and we do believe that the 133 facilities which are only really triggered in what are called unusual and exigent circumstances in the legislation were very important provided very important support to the economy so there's no doubt that the 13 three facilities were very uh valuable and certain i'm gonna quickly say he's he's not wrong and and i i should have said this up front but the programs had more of an impact in that because they existed the market had confidence so they were really like symbols like we're here and then the market function normally again the fed is worried that if they don't have that ability to go we're here that in the next crash they're gonna have to wait for congress to act and that could actually potentially lead to a deeper market crash because think about the fed when they acted at the beginning of march in 2020 they came out like instantly they came out on a sunday i think it was like march 6th or 7th or something like that uh it was the sunday the first week in march it was a sunday and they dropped rights to xero they talked about backstopping the market they did a lot to say hey we're gonna help the markets right away there is a risk that if the current congressional negotiations basically take this power away to create these emergency lending facilities with the treasury department before congress even acts that potentially we could have a deeper market crash in the future so he pretty much ends it on that note but i want to ask you if the federal reserve doesn't have those lending powers in the future is it possible that when that next recession comes around we could see a deeper crash a deeper recession because the fed won't be able to you know emergency lend their way out in the same way that they were able to this time is that going to be a problem do you believe him when he says we're not going to see a double dip recession when do you think the market's going to crash again personally i'm on what i call catalyst hunt i'm like okay so we got some uncertainty maybe coming up for january 5th on the election you know maybe there'll be some riots on january 6 but you know what else i'm running out of negative catalysts here to to say there's a crash coming so uh i guess that just means it's time to go all in at all-time highs i don't know it always feels like it's always all-time highs anyway mail me for that bundle coupon code or just use the holiday coupon code down below which will expire the night of christmas d