저자: IsdomJuice · 한국인
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SK하이닉스 ADR(SKHY) 7/10 상장 예정. 상장으로 미국 투자자 접근성이 높아져 마이크론·샌디스크와 비교 평가가 가능해지고, 밸류에이션 갭 축소 및 패시브 자금 유입 기대. 다만 신주 발행(약 1,779만주, 4.5조원 조달)으로 희석 가능성과 과거 LG디스플레이 ADR 사례처럼 산업 사이클은 못 피한다는 리스크도 언급. 코스피는 삼성전자·SK하이닉스 쏠림과 과열 구조, 금리·환율 부담을 지적하며 메모리 조정 가능성에 주의. 장기적으로 SK하이닉스·삼성전자 보유가 낫다는 견해.
다듬은 글
If you had to buy just one stock in this world, which one should you buy? Then, without hesitation, SK Hynix would be the right choice. It’s just that even though it’s expensive, it doesn’t mean you have to go all-in on it . That is the most valuable thing right now . If I had to buy two, it would be SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics.
So, while it is true that the ratio of leading stocks to profit is overwhelming, these are companies listed on the KOSPI . The KOSPI needs to be healthy for them to be able to run. hello. This is Isdom Juice. Ah, SK Hynix is being listed in the U.S. via ADR . The ticker is SKHY . Trading starts on July 10th.
Memory semiconductors belong to a sector that is highly sought after by both retail investors and institutions in the US, but in reality, it is not easy to buy SK Hynix or Samsung Electronics in the US unless you are a large institution . You have no choice but to buy through DRAM ETFs, which is why so many classes are concentrated here.
That is also one of the reasons why there is more focus on Micron and SanDisk . yes. This is because, although Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are the leading companies in the memory semiconductor sector with much higher operating profits and revenue, they have not been able to receive such direct investment due to their presence in the Korean market .
So, today's topic is to logically consider how SK Hynix's underlying stock on the KOSPI might be affected if it lists on ADRs, and whether demand might be dispersed to Micron or SanDisk . Okay, first of all, we need to find out what ADR is, but it's not difficult. ADR is called an American Depositary Receipt .
You can think of it as depositing Korean stocks in a U.S. bank vault and splitting the receipt so that it can be bought and sold for dollars on the U.S. stock market . To use a restaurant analogy, the original branch in Korea is just too famous. So, New Yorkers want to come and eat, but they can't fly over to eat.
So, we are opening a branch in New York . It's the same great restaurant. The headquarters in Korea will be the main SK Hynix stock, and the newly listed SKhy will be the New York branch. The value is exactly the same. If you think about why companies do this, the primary reason is money. SK Hynix will issue new shares, totaling 17.79 million shares—approximately 2.5% of its existing stock—to raise up to 45 trillion won.
It has previously announced that this money will be used for facility investments, such as cluster packaging lines and EUV equipment . Next, there are advantages such as brand recognition and passive funds, which we will examine next. To summarize the key point, the moment it is officially listed on the U.S.
stock market, you can enter funds or ETFs that are designed to invest exclusively in the U.S. And since US retail traders will also be able to trade, what I'm actually curious about is this . So, the most pressing question will be whether, once it lists on the U.S. market, SK Hynix can receive a PR at the level of Micron, just like TSMC, which receives a PR of over 20 times its value .
SK Hynix's second-quarter operating profit. The consensus is set at around 62 trillion or 65 trillion. Compared to the previous year, it is an increase of 500 to 600 percent, with annual operating profit projected to be around 260 trillion won this year and around 370 trillion won next year . It has risen to a global top-class level.
If new NASDAQ ADR shares are issued here, an additional 45 trillion won will flow in . So, we experienced a semiconductor crash on Tuesday, didn't we? Micron's earnings once again proved that the AA cycle is alive, after the KOSPI market had slumped with no apparent reason, falling 9.95% and 99%. An unrealistic ending came out.
You will probably see this after some time has passed, so you are likely already aware, but sales increased by 346% in just one year. It was the most shocking part because it showed signs of being much worse than the guidance . Gross revenue ratio is 84.9%, and adjusted EPS is $25.11. It significantly exceeded the consensus for the best chair in history at $11 .
And they disclosed 16 SCAs. SCA can be called a Strategic Customer Agreement. The memory industry originally has something called LTA (Long-term Supply Agreement). So, we have to pay a higher multiple because of this long-term supply contract . The talk about needing to pay a higher PER is basically like a promise to supply volume over the years .
However, LTA usually sets the price to the market price. So, depending on the situation, the price goes down if it goes down, and goes up if it lasts a long time. So, we do promise the quantity, but we end up receiving it based on the market price at the time . However, SCA is the same in that it involves purchasing the volume over a certain period, but a minimum amount is required to be written in the contract.
So, even if market conditions are bad and it falls below a certain level, it is fixed that a minimum amount must be paid. So, there is a bit of guarantee, you know. So, you can consider it a contract that is much more binding and in which the seller holds the upper hand . In this way, we have secured sales worth $100 billion .
They stated that the supply shortage is expected to go on for over 27 years, and that the company itself is in a situation where it can only meet half of the demand, or about 2 minutes. The guidance for the next quarter is set at a total revenue rate of 86% . Now, given the current situation, if you look at the Reddit forum known as the Wall Street Battle, one of the most discussed stocks right now is Micron.
While SpaceX sucked up all the attention during its IPO earlier this year, it has now suddenly taken it all away. Micron is currently in first place. It is actually pretty similar to how Korean shows end . There are still people saying that a 10x forward is cheap, and others saying it is an excessive rise because it is still a memory cycle industry.
There were even screenshots posted confirming that the market cap had surpassed $1. Then, it is all the same when it comes to the peak . However, a notable point is that when news about the Hynix ADR came out, there was a reaction on the investment board asking, "What is an ADR? How do I buy this? Why isn't it showing up on the lobby node?" It is expected to attract a lot of attention when it is released on July 10th.
I view this as very important, and from the perspective of U.S. individual investors, the same applies to institutions . It is a well-known fact globally that memory semiconductors are currently leading the market, but even if you want to buy something, there is nothing available other than Micron. So, everyone who knew how strong Hynix is in HBM was aware of it, but they could n't buy it because it was a Korean stock; now, that is becoming possible.
Therefore, if Hynix enters the U.S. ADR market, U.S. investors will be able to compare Micron and Hynix side by side. So, could I get a slightly smaller multiple discount ? Or could I receive something similar ? We can't really know for sure, but we can look forward to it . So, one of the significant points of this ADR is that the mindset of U.S.
investors has shifted from "memory semiconductors mean Micron" to a comparative landscape where Micron is the better choice, alongside Hynix . And the same goes for SanDisk. In the US market, SanDisk was the only one when it came to NAND flash, but since Hynix also manufactures NAND, it is now possible to compare it side-by-side with SanDisk.
Let me talk about number 1 . yes. Kioxia is a subsidiary that Toshiba originally spun off, and it specializes in land flash. To be honest, it was a company of little significance. However, after listing in Tokyo at the end of 2024, the stock price jumped 60-fold. This year, it overtook Toyota to become the number one market capitalization in Japan .
Japan, the land of automobiles and Toyota, has become the number one memory company . Kioxia has also formalized its U.S. ADR plan . It is a bit late, but they say it will be done around next spring. If you want to buy Kioxia in Japan right now, it is sold in packs of 100. This Kioxia. So, since nearly 100 million won is required for a single transaction, it is practically difficult for individuals to trade .
Now, the 12-month forward PR of memory companies in the Korean market is about six, seven, or eight times. However, based on the offering price of CXMT, a Chinese memory manufacturer listing in Shanghai in July, the PR is 20 times. If it is 20 times, there is a 2.5 times difference . A company that makes DMs exactly the same.
It is a company that can only produce lower quality DM from the previous 9th generation, yet the price varies like this depending on where it is listed and which investors can buy it . If we narrow down the numbers a bit more today, SK Hynix's 12-month forward is about 7.8 times . Samsung Electronics is about 6.3 times 3 times .
But now, Micron is in a situation where it looks like it might increase tenfold . It is the same asset, and even though the Korean company has better quality, we are in a situation where Micron, listed in the U.S., is trading at a higher price than its Korean counterpart . So, if we look further ahead...
Excluding Tesla, the average forward for the US M7 is 24 times. Now that Hynix has entered the US market and been included in benchmarks like the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, if the stock tracks that index, passive funds will, by rule, buy Hynix . It's not that I want to buy it, but now I end up buying it because of Ji-soo.
So, one opinion is that upon seeing this, funds holding Micron might immediately incorporate Hynix, and the undervaluation relative to Micron could rapidly decrease. Looking at this from the opposite perspective, one might think that the demand to go out of one's way to exchange dollars for won to buy SK Hynix in the Korean market would decrease accordingly.
However, this could be a shelf-type trend, and since foreigners are already continuously selling, such demand could indeed enter this market . Now, if we look at the ADR base stock . Ultimately, you are bound to have the rights with the company. If branch prices rise and the main store's prices inevitably follow, if that price gap widens, arbitrage trading also occurs to profit from that difference.
So, if Hynix is revalued in the U.S., there is a possibility that that valuation will flow into our underlying stock on the KOSPI . You can view the fact that a certain Japanese expert evaluated Kisia as a regular item for arbitrage trading when it announced its ADR listing as part of the same context .
Now, if we look at the KOSPI... Yes, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix account for nearly half of the KOSPI's total capitalization. The KOSPI rose by about 100% this year, and 70% of that increase came from these two stocks . It is even more dramatic when looking at the records . On the day the Hospice hit an all-time high, there were 77 stocks that rose.
There were 826 declining stocks. Even though the index is rising so much, it means that stocks accounted for less than 10% of the gains . That is why there are so many people who feel a sense of alienation even while inside the market . The reason this is frightening is actually due to the amplification structure.
When foreigners buy KOSPI stocks, they increase their holdings in Samsung or SK Hynix; as those two rise, the KOSPI rises, and as the KOSPI rises, passive funds buy them again. With funds even joining in with 2x leverage ETFs, volatility increases dramatically. Furthermore, just as the market is amplified when rising, it is also amplified when falling.
Since the financial market has never had such a large market capitalization, you can view this as a situation facing systemic risk within a loop arising from such distortions. On top of this, the semi-annual rebalancing is compounding the situation, with pension funds attempting to sell, so you can see it as a combination of various factors .
So, as I mentioned, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix account for about half of the total KOSPI market . Based on the 12-month projected ranking, it accounts for 72% of the entire KOSPI . In a way, since Gear 2 is larger than the market capitalization weight, does that mean the market cap needs to grow up to 70%?
They are contributing so much that it makes you think... At least in terms of numbers, that is the case right now. In any case, the overall picture is currently very unhealthy, with even sound stocks plummeting. While this is a trend based on profits rather than a bubble, I think it can be understood as a distortion caused by the fact that those profits are record-breaking—far too large compared to the size of the market .
SanDisk is a grand company that spun off from Western Digital early last year, and its stock price has risen 44-fold since the spin-off. It has gone up 850% this year alone. It became the stock that rose the most in the SP 500. The minimum for 52 weeks was $40. The highest price reached $2,354 . Now, here, four companies are in the same memory supercycle.
And the listed market, the evaluated investors, and the investors investing in it were all different. However, once the ADR listing is completed, it becomes highly likely that the market will view it using the same standards. It leads to Job. Micron had an operating loss and negative margins a few years ago .
SanDisk was the company that made the USBs lying around in that drawer . To be honest, Kioxia was a company I had never heard of. However, companies like this suddenly skyrocketed based on their profits . But now, there is one reason why we shouldn't expect too much from Diablo, and there is a history.
In 2004, LG Display listed on the New York market as an ADR. We raised $1 billion. Since then, the LCD industry has fallen into a slump. The stock price and earnings collapsed together. It was listed at $15, but it is now $3.9 when I last checked. Now, this serves as a lesson that listing in the U.S.
does not guarantee protection against the industry cycle. Therefore, simply going there does not solve everything. Since memory semiconductors are the leader in the current industry cycle and SK Hynix is the leader among them, and because the Hynix ADR involves the issuance of new shares, there is also the aspect of existing shares being diluted unless the company subsequently buys back more than what it has already done.
Thus, it appears necessary to carefully consider the various full-blown circumstances . The goal now is for Hynix to narrow the premium gap with Micron through ADRs . Because the expectation that Micron will have a really long memory cycle has boosted its valuation, doubts about the substance and the substance of AI are completely disappearing.
yes. Macroeconomic indicators show that the 6-year and 10-year yields have dropped significantly, and in terms of actual data, inflation indicators came out in line with expectations. The PC data came out to be consistent, but from a market perspective, since expectations were high, people don't view it favorably, thinking, "Oh, we expected it to be high, so it turned out even higher." Just because it meets the requirements doesn't mean it's necessarily good; it actually needs to go down from this level.
Because it is the highest figure in three years. So this is definitely an objective figure. Since the U.S. is a nation of statistics, statistical values must be low; only then will the preference for risky assets grow and spread throughout the economy. In this situation, low price indicators must dispel concerns about inflation and the possibility of interest rate cuts.
Objective figures showing a decline must emerge before July, when SK Hynix is listed, or at the very least before August, for the Fed to be in a position to further delay its consideration of raising interest rates . The won-dollar exchange rate is still high right now. It is a situation where the market slump is becoming increasingly severe .
Last Tuesday, we experienced the memory sector, including SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, plummeting even without any significant negative news . Therefore, it is situated in a very sensitive structure and supply chain that fluctuates even with the slightest shock. Due to factors such as funds selling large-cap semiconductor stocks and single-stock ETFs by pension funds, end-of-year rebalancing, and supply and demand imbalances, sectors like semiconductor materials, parts, and equipment, robotics, defense, telecommunications equipment, and secondary batteries, as well as small and medium-sized growth stocks and even undervalued companies, are currently experiencing supply gaps and are unable to rise when they should .
The KOSDAQ has fallen 30% from its peak, marking a long bear market in 2022. I have brought it up to a level similar to back then. Since I have actually talked a lot about the Bando sector recently, it feels like I keep repeating similar things. However, because the market is all about memory—everything revolves around memory—you need to keep in mind that the current market is indeed a leading stock market .
It will be the same in the future . If you had to buy just one stock in this world, then what should you buy ? Then, without hesitation, SK Hynix would be the right choice. It’s just that even though it’s expensive, it doesn’t mean you have to go all-in on it. That is the most valuable thing right now.
If I had to buy two, it would be SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics. So, while it is true that the proportion of leading companies is overwhelming, these are companies listed on the KOSPI . The KOSPI needs to be healthy for them to be able to joke around . So, since a healthy market is the most important thing in the long term, I would like to hope that next week, even if the memory semiconductor market takes a slow break, it will become a market that cycles out overall . Yes, that's all for today . Become a happy and wealthy person . thank you
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