저자: Kevin · 외국인
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트럼프 행정부의 주택 국가비상사태 선언 가능성을 언급하며 주택 공급 확대(건축 규제 표준화)가 필요하다고 주장. 주택주 강세와 워런 버핏의 홈빌더 매수를 근거로 제시. 본인 회사 하우스핵의 AI 제품과 전환사채 공모를 홍보하고, 주택 공급 부족으로 부동산 가격 상승 및 부자 유리 구조를 전망. 정책 효과는 최소 4년 이상 걸린다고 봄.
다듬은 글
Well, Donald Trump is considering a national emergency on housing. We've got to talk about what that means and what areas of the country could potentially benefit and when people might actually benefit from any kind of Trump declared housing emergency. Keep in mind, housing stocks lately have been doing pretty well.
Part of this has to do, in my opinion, with Warren Buffett increasing his allocation to home builders and Pool, which is a pool supply company for distributors who allow contractors to buy pavers, pool pumps, and equipment, implying potentially a refinancing or housing boom coming. That in the minds of of course of Warren Buffett, at least based on what we can imply based on his recent purchases.
But if you look at markets like what we see today, you can actually see housing stocks doing quite well. Uh you've got, you know, Fanny May, Freddy Mack continue to boom. Uh and the boom has been going on since election on the hope uh since even just right before the election under the hopes that these companies will go private.
These are quasi governmental entities right now and they collect a lot of money from servicing and uh interest on Fanny Freddy guaranteed loans, home loans, your typical 30-year conventional loans. Uh and a lot of those profits right now go to the Treasury Department, which a lot of people expect will transition to public shareholders should they go private.
Sure if Donald Trump wants to give up on that revenue, though, but anyway, uh it's nice Treasury revenue, right? Uh but you can see pool stock up on the day 3%. Lenar's up 2%. Dr. Horton's 1.8, Lowe's is up 1.1, Home Depot's up 1.1. This is while a lot of software companies and maybe even some crypto plays not doing so well.
Salesforce down five, right? AMD slipping. Uh you've got uh Palanteer, I mean basically flat. Tesla up a quarter, you know? So a little bit of a mixed day, but you really got some enthusiasm around housing. Now, could that have to do with Donald Trump's enthusiasm for a national housing emergency? Well, Besset says that they may end up declaring a national housing emergency this fall.
Now, what's remarkable about this is when I and we're going to go through the details about this, but if you remember when I ran for governor in 2021, I had a 20point plan. One of my 20point plans was to deploy the National Guard in California to end the homeless crisis. And I had a complete plan in terms of how we were going to utilize the National Guard to build not only the shelters and the mental health services that homeless folks needs, but to make sure that nobody's sleeping on our streets.
And we would deploy the National Guard to make sure our streets are safe and we could have tourism in California. Interestingly, that's exactly what Donald Trump is now doing in areas not only like LA, but also Washington DC and potentially now utilizing the military to help immigration and customs enforcement deployment into Chicago.
So, very similar, but another item on my 20point plan is somebody from a real estate background with a real estate startup, houseack.com. You can invest in it. Learn more at houseack.com. This video is not solicitation. But in 2021 in my 20point plan, I said that what we really needed was to address the massive housing shortage that we have.
And the way to do that is by streamlining, building, permitting, and building more homes. It's currently estimated that over the next 7 years, we are going to build or have a housing shortage rather. So, we're not going to build enough. We're gonna have a housing shortage of an additional 5.2 million homes.
That's a massive housing shortage. That's likely just going to make homes more expensive. And I'm not talking about more expensive because rates are coming down because inflation is normalizing or if there's a recession, rates will come down rapidly, which will probably boost asset prices up. Basically, the rich will get richer, right?
the people with real estate assets that they could turn around and refinance to invest in more pools or furniture or whatever they're spending money in and they're remodeling or whatever, they're the ones who are going to get richer. Everybody who doesn't have access to housing gets left behind. It's usually how it works.
The rich get richer in America. That's a feature of capitalism. It's great if you're rich, sucks if you're not. You really got to get on the train of building wealth, right? This is, by the way, what we teach in the courses on building your wealth at me.com. But you already know that we've got coupon code
catalyst expiring this Friday. But what actually matters is that we have such a housing shortage and one of the issues you have the reasons you have such a housing shortage and we identified this in 2021 is because you have such complicated building procedures. Why is it that if I want to build a home in San Diego or Newport Beach or uh Hermosa or Ventura or Santa Barbara, I have to go through five different building departments with totally different plans, different energy requirements, different rules, different regulations, different what I can and can't do, different setbacks, when the reality is they're all basically in Southern California.
They've got essentially the same climate. They're going to use the same windows and furnaces and roofs. They're going to use the same products. Maybe we're gonna have slight differences for design elements. But what we really need is a standard for regions of building permits so that not every damn city has stupid overlays.
Like why can I add one ADU in Ventura, but I can add three ADUs in Kenoga Park? It doesn't make sense. Well, take a look at what Scott Besson is saying Trump might do. Bessant says, "We're trying to figure out what we can do, and we don't want to step into the business of states, counties, and munis.
We may declare a national housing emergency in the fall." Besson declined to list any specifics, but he suggested the administration officials are working directly at studying ways to standardize local building and zoning codes and decrease closing costs. Let's freaking go. This is exactly what politicians should do.
Now, you know me, my goal on this channel is to piss everybody off. Why the hell else would I be wearing a Luigi's uh tank top here? You know, Luigi tank top with a festual jacket. It is solely to piss people off. And short shorts. Short shorts. Okay. Who Who does this? Who does this? Okay, I'm telling you the goal is to piss people off.
vest tool jacket. Very nice, very functional. I got a lot of pockets, pouches. I can put stuff in here. You know, it's great. But then we got short short, okay? It's just designed to piss you off. So, it's the same thing with politics. I'm going to on Trump and then I'm also going to tell you what he's doing right.
And this right here is something that they're doing right. This is exactly what should be done. And frankly, my goal when I ran for governor was that if I didn't make it, which I didn't make it, obviously. I don't know. Blame the short shorts. Obviously didn't make it. Uh, you know, it could also be, you know, just my my choice of style.
I don't know what it is, but my goal was if I didn't make it that people would take the ideas that we came up with and actually implement them in the best ways possible. And I think this is fantastic because this is exactly what I ran for governor on. We have these policies as videos on my channel. So it's not like I'm making this up with hindsight 2020.
Like we were one of the first people to mention this and here we are now four years later and like politicians are picking this up which is great. This is fantastic. We need this. Now what does this potentially mean in the longer term? Well, it's going to take a long time. First of all, to standardize the building process and then actually get building, it's going to take four years.
It's going to take probably two years, even if you declared the national housing emergency, it'll take two years to actually come up with some kind of, you know, streamlining of building codes and then it'll take another two years on top of that to actually build. So, you're talking about at least four years before this makes a difference.
But this is what should be done. So between now and four years, housing is still going to get more expensive. It's still going to suck in harder to build areas. Understand this duality. In 2020 and 2023, when we were exploring where to invest for house hack, we correctly identified that the places not to invest in were Texas and Florida in 2022 and 2023 or in Airbnb markets because they were overbuilding.
And sure enough, that's what happened. Overbuilding has led to price declines in those areas. But that's what humans want. People want cheaper housing. So if you want cheaper housing, you should be in areas like Texas or Florida where it's easier to build. And those areas will probably win even more under some kind of standardized building codes.
Now, if you want more expensive housing, which is exactly what you want if you are an investor in housing, if you're an investor in housing and you own housing, uh, and and you're providing rental property, you want to invest in areas where the politicians are dumb, where they don't understand how to generate more housing.
Places like California, ironically, great places to invest for real estate because they're so dumb and they have all these complicated policies that make it so hard to have more housing and so housing just gets more expensive. So, this is great. Now, one of the downsides of Donald Trump's actions here is that he generally uses emergency declarations as opposed to sending legislation to Congress.
The problem with that is you end up getting held up in courts. So, like best case scenario, even if they do this, it'll take four years. If you end up having courts that push this back even more, it's going to make it even worse. It's going to take even longer. But who knows? There's also this possibility of, you know, maybe some kind of emergency action for like tax credits for builders, but that was more of a Kla Harris plan.
Uh, so I think a lot of people think that this emergency action will have to do with Fanny Freddy, which is possible, but uh I think it'll like I don't think they want to get rid of this revenue. I think it's more likely that they're going to want to promote building and it's good for real estate stocks.
Even though fundamentally Open Door is a bad stock, in our alpha report, we called out this rally coming to Open Door since it was in the 60 cent range. It's now almost up 10x from there. you would have that analysis and by entries and exit uh uh you know point outs if you're part of the alpha report which remember you get every single morning if you use coupon code
foolish catalyst over at mekevin.com you get lifetime access you also get access to all the u property management courses the real estate sales courses the real estate investing courses the stock investing courses the trumpics tax benefit courses we've got a lot of new lectures coming out by the way probably at the end of this month for renovation what renovations to do, what not to do, what products to use, what not to use.
We're doing a big update on that course along with the tax benefit Trump course. So, that'll uh that'll have a lot of new lectures as well. That's all coming out later this month. We'll have uh probably at least two price increases before those lectures come out, just because we're adding more value for existing members as usual, just constantly adding more value for existing members in add membership over at meetc.com.
And then keep in mind, you know, one of the reasons I pay attention to all this real estate stuff as well is because, you know, obviously we have a real estate startup. We've got, you know, somewhere around 76ish million dollars in assets, maybe more now. Uh we just had a seven figure money raised month in August.
Uh we raised another over six figures in just the last 48 hours. I think that's because people want to diversify to real estate. They're like, "All right, stock market's at all-time highs here. I can invest into a real estate company at, you know, what I think is a reasonable valuation. Uh, a buck 40 a share, which is roughly somewhere around 1.5 or 1.5 times our asset, you know, book value basically.
Uh, but that depends on how you value book value. So, you got to really just kind of like look and understand the financials. Don't take my word for it. Just read all the paperwork on it. Uh but uh you know there we think there's like no valuation premium to what we're doing with artificial intelligence which we expect to have a limited release for people in the meet Kevin uh membership.
Uh we'll do some kind of limited AI release beta in the fourth quarter for our real estate AI software. That'll be huge for identifying deals and valuation features. We're coming to that as well which is great. It's basically our wedge finder that we can license across the country to other people because you know there's no shortage of deals.
It's a shortage of people identifying the deals which our AI will help with and then there's a shortage of capital to buy the deals. But if you have capital buy the deals, you just need a little bit of boost. You know, use you could spend a little bit of money on AI and and probably make a lot of money.
That's the goal, right? It's kind of like the Palunteer strategy. Like we want people to use our AI and make a hundred grand and you know maybe they spend $2,000 on us to make a hundred grand like that's a win for us and it's a win for you. You know we license software and hopefully you make go big big big money.
We don't know if it how much that'll scale or if people will like it but that's sort of our vision. So if every customer can pay us to license our AI software that's great. Uh, and so, you know, we're using our machine learning that we've built out and combining that now with LLMs. Uh, and you know, we've hit a breakthrough recently in in our AI ratings and it's incredible what what we're able to pull off.
But, uh, I mean, we're going hard on this and it's great because, you know, we don't see AI as part of our valuation. We see us as a housing company that buys fixer uppers and rents them out. uh and uh the AI is like this icing on the cake that you don't pay in my opinion any valuation premium for right now.
That'll probably change in the future once we actually release the product unless the product flops. Obviously, there's like I say, there's a risk with everything. But I I couldn't be more excited about it. But then again, I'm biased. You know, I'm the CEO. So, uh but anyway, that's just sort of where my mindset is.
But yeah, I mean, when it comes to Trump, I mean, this is what we're paying attention to. We're watching these sort of policies and uh and I recognize how long it's going to take for them to pull this off, but I'm going to be watching very closely what their plans are with building because you know how side also develops and then like all of this is related, right?
Like we use our AI to find wedge deals, to find below market value deals, and we buy and hold the stuff, but we also develop our properties. You know, we add accessory dwelling units or we build from land. And so, you know, if they streamline building permitting processes, that's great because then we can build like Lenor Dr.
Horton or whatever. So, it's fun. It's uh I really like real estate. You know, me, I'm a real estate guy uh and uh I love construction. I love real estate and and we hope we can keep crushing it. But uh housing, baby. Housing and real estate. Uh so let's see what some of you have in in um in California, real estate taxes could be more than your mortgage pay.
I don't think you realize that California actually has some of the best property tax laws ever. See, to most people, they say stuff like this and they have no clue what they're talking about. And it's okay. I'm not trying to make fun of you. I'm just trying to say you have no clue what you're talking about.
If you go to Texas, you're going to pay somewhere around 2.4% of your purchase value on property taxes. And very common as well in Florida. Let's not even get started with insurance costs in Florida. I could still get reasonable insurance rates in California. And thanks to Proposition 13, I am limited at paying property taxes at 1% of the value of the acquisition price of the property, able to go up no more than CPI per year.
You know what that means? That means when you buy real estate, your property taxes stay here as your property values go up exponentially. Your pro like or or your property value goes up exponentially over time. Uh especially if you appropriately use leverage, which House Act doesn't right now. We don't use any bank leverage right now.
We got zero bank leverage at all. No debt other than, you know, some convertible bonds. Um, the property taxes go up linearly, but not necessarily because if there's ever a point where values go down, you can actually put a request in to the assessor's office. I've done it before successfully. It's great.
You send a request to the assessor's office for a decrease in your property tax valuation by providing them comps. You basically just do a market analysis. You send them the comps. you're like, "Yo, property value went down." They'll lower your property taxes. Then when prices rebound, which they always do, especially in low build areas, your property taxes are now assessed to the lower value despite the value going back up.
And they can't catch up because they're limited. They are ceiling by law how much they can increase your property taxes. Like there's so many like when you actually know the game. You know how to make money in real estate. Uh and and we'll just leave it at that. That's That's enough of that. But when I Sometimes I see people say these things like, "Man, you're just wrong." Uh anyway, Kevin, what is the offer ending?
I got 30K, but I want to buy 60,000 more of house. The It depends really what the Fed does, right? Like we're offering a 5% yield right now on top of upside in the stock until the until it converts obviously because it's a convertible offering. you know, you get 5%. It's paid out to you on a monthly basis through conversion.
But the thing is when you look at, you know, if the Fed comes in, like if the Fed panics this September and they're like, we're cutting rates 50 or 100 basis points, it might make sense to end our offering. So, I don't know if we're going to. It kind of depends on like if the Fed does something crazy and, you know, Waller gets them to cut like 200 basis points in the next three or four months, you know, I'm going to be having a meeting with the board.
I'm going to be like, "Hey, why are we paying this much?" I mean, the board will probably call me be like, "Kevin, why are we paying so much yield when the Fed just cut rates a bunch?" So, we're kind of just waiting and seeing what the Fed's going to be up to. That's that's my opinion. Uh, and so we'll see.
Uh, you know, that's that's a big deal. Uh, you know, I I don't see competition. I see your comments here about competition for what we're doing. I don't see competition at all for what we're doing with AI. uh you know we're not we're not a data analytics platform we're we're a wedge deal uh AI product that's very different uh than than data we don't do da d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d da analytics.
Somebody here says one and a quarter of the purchase price. One and a quarter of the purchase price is usually what people use as a ballpark for estimating uh your property taxes because property taxes are limited at 1% in California, but we add a quarter for the local assessments and it just gives you a quick ballpark.
I live in Germany. Can I invest in House Act? Yes. Uh we've got people from Japan, China, uh the Middle East, the UAE, Canada, the UK, Sweden, you know, we've got investors from from all across the world. Uh and uh it's kind of cool. So, um live in Germany. Thanks, Kevin. I'm from Taiwan and I took your courses since co times.
I've literally watched every live stream you've had since Dr. Prof. That's awesome. That's so cool. I want to visit. That's really cool. Uh anyway, thanks for saying that. That's really coo.
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