저자: Kevin · 외국인
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ADP 고용보고서(9/3)와 금요일 비농업고용(NFP) 발표를 앞두고, ADP 6만 이상·NFP 6만 이상이 나오면 9월 금리인하(25bp)가 확정돼 상승 촉매가 된다고 주장. 최근 3개월 고용 증가는 월 3.2~3.5만명으로 낮고, 빈일자리가 실업자보다 많아진 점, 소매판매 실질 정체 등을 근거로 경기둔화 우려를 언급. 금리 방향은 하락 쪽으로 보며 부동산 사이클·주택건설주 관심 표명. 단기 변동성(장 막판 매도) 가능성도 언급.
다듬은 글
Here's what you got to write down for the next two days. First, ADP jobs report expecting 70,000 jobs uh for tomorrow. That's 5:15 a.m. We'll be live. We're looking for 70,000. My opinion is above 60. We're good. We want data kind of like we had this morning. data that's like okay, not horrible because we don't want to unpriced growth and priced in recession, but we don't really want hot data because that removes the odds of cuts.
Like this morning on job openings and labor turnover survey, I said look, anything with a seven handle is good. You just don't want it to be really hot. So the expectation is 7 about 4 million, we get about 7.2 million job openings. Perfect moon, baby. In fact, if you were watching live live within 30 seconds of that data coming out, I said, "This is bullish.
Bullish calls on the cues for the day. You got to get in before CNBC starts talking about it." And um let's just say it has been straight up since that data came out because the data came out right here at sort of the bottom of the morning right there. Straight up since then. Pretty awesome. But data, data, data, data.
We want the same thing to happen tomorrow with ADP. You if you come in at like 60k, you really confirm that rate cut for September, which is that sugar high that markets want. Right now, markets are pricing in a 75, sorry, 95.2% chance. Okay, just updated again. 95.6% chance of a rate cut September 17th.
with the FOMC. You get an ADP and jobs report that are slightly lower, but not so low that we're recessionary on pricing growth and not hot, we're good. A lot of people expect that this August jobs data is going to show some kind of rebound above trend. That's why the expectations are so high. Remember, payrolls the last 3 months have averaged about 32 to 35,000 jobs, which is really low.
Expectations right now are 75 on 80 uh sorry 80p is 70 and then 75 for non-farm payrolls Friday morning at 5:30 a.m. Pacific time. Mark your calendar for those things. Friday is also the expiration of bullish list which remember we've got seven more of the 10 stocks to buy getting released within the next few weeks.
So if you want to be get those 10 stocks to buy for the next 10 years my opinion not personalized financial advice of course. I don't know your situation. ose are the big numbers here. And what we want is a market reaction much like we got today. Recognize what happened today. Today the stock market rallied right after we got slightly soft data.
But in addition to that slightly soft data, we also got a plummet in yields, which was great because yesterday yields skyrocketed on the fears that Trump is going to have to issue basically a bunch of new bonds to fund the US government because he's going to have to repay all these tariffs, which isn't great.
But today, we get this slightly soft data. 10-year drops back to 4.23. We're still at shock territory of 61 on the 210 spread, which isn't great. And the Wall Street Journal's yapping about how consumers are basically starting to set up a recessionary cycle. And the way to avoid this is by making sure we get jobs to keep booming.
See, one thing that's also happened, and Zero Hedge is talking about this quite a bit, is we've just seen for the first time since April of 2021, a move in the labor market where all of a sudden we have more job vacancies than we have unemployed. Uh now that kind of movement is not great because typically we never enter in a recession when the labor market is constrained.
However, as your hedge here says as of this moment the labor market is no longer constrained. This is just in English a way of saying yo there are more people in land than there are openings. Real simple like that. Okay. So, it does set up concerns and this is why we really want to see these job data sets come in positive because look at this.
The Wall Street Journal is already starting to do this talk that I I don't love seeing. They say here, "Hey, Q2 numbers beat profit expectations. They beat because you've got managers who are cutting costs, forcing employees to use AI, and hiring less people while at the same time raising prices. That's great for company earnings and it's supporting company buybacks which could be contributing to an over, you know, 130 basis point extra boon to the S&P 500 over just the last few months because companies are trimming profits and using those extra profits to go buy their stock back.
But the problem with this is the risk that you end up creating some kind of down cycle. Uh this is where when we look at retail sales adjusted for inflation, they're basically flat. retail sales were really only going up because of inflation which isn't great. Uh so you know uh like we're we're not really seeing sales growth.
And the concern with this is what happens when you get into a cycle of a slowdown where all of a sudden people start having here like this person writes it here. Corporate efforts to trim their way to profit growth haven't led to deep business or consumer spending cuts yet. that often precede recessions, not yet.
But the fear is the longer this corporate spending cycle or cutting cycle rather goes on, the more likely we are to enter something akin to a downturn. For example, they basically get into as you reduce prices, people get laid off. When people get laid off, they have less money to spend. When they have less money to spend, earnings at companies go down, which lead companies to then lay off more.
This is the cycle of unemployment. This is not a surprise. Again, that's why I make the argument that the most important catalyst this month, not the Fed, not Beigebook or any kind of other crap data. Nobody cares. The most important data we have is coming out within the next 24 to 48 hours. And we hope that it's going to be a really good and solid catalyst.
Bullish catalyst. How can it be a bullish catalyst? again, please give us at least 60K on ADP tomorrow morning and 60K on the jobs report on Friday. If we can get at least that, we are going to guarantee rate cuts of 25 basis points and we're good. If we get something ridiculous, which we've seen this happen before, we basically have these like all of a sudden really low reads and and everybody freaks out and gets nervous and then all of a sudden out of nowhere we get this huge banger and we end up getting like 150,000 jobs or something wild.
This has happened twice before and there are murmurings on Wall Street that it could happen again. I have the chart right here. See, look at this. In 2024, we go really low, then we boom on payrolls. End of 24, we go really low, we boom. We go low, we boom. Here we go. 2025, we're low. Are we now going to boom again?
There is a hope that the answer to this question is yes, that we are going to boom again and we're going to get some kind of blowout number like 150,000 jobs, positive revisions, everything gets revised up. the people working for Trump don't want to get fired. So the numbers, you know, get biased up and you end up having hot reform.
The downside there is we'd be in a position where all of a sudden now we have to unpric 25 basis point cuts. Everything comes down to what's happening in uh the ADP report tomorrow at 5:15 a.m. and then of course the jobs report at 5:30 a.m. Friday. So mark your calendar for those. We'll be live streaming them.
Use coupon code bullish catalyst because if we beat these calls, man, I think all-time highs are coming and we're going to the moon and really excited about that. If we beat on these numbers, the 60k that Kevin wants. If we get something low like I mean, god forbid we get something negative, but imagine we get something even like anemic like 20,000 right on these numbers.
That's basically going to be indistinguishable from negative. That's very similar to what Waller's concern is. Waller's concern based on what he suggests is the weekly uh ADP data is that we're actually setting up for multiple rate cuts. He says we need to cut this month. Inflation will be lower from tariffs in six to seven months.
I don't know why he picked six, seven. Uh, and he has not been chosen for an interview yet with Bessant, which is a little bit of a sign that maybe he won't end up being the Fed chair and maybe they'll go for some other kneebending shill, but whatever. Bostic released a statement saying that whether we cut in September or not depends on the jobs report.
Obvious. See what the Fed is doing. They're basically saying, "Look, we're just going to punt this jobs report. This is why these jobs reports are so important." But I think everybody knows the trend is back to inflation target. Even uh the Fed um the Fed member Mosulum suggests that inflation should be back to 2% by the second half of 2026 which implies camp transitory 2.0 and that we should continue to see below trend growth which also suggests lower rates to prop up growth again which probably is why you've got Trump Jr.
and their partner company now 1789 Capital uh getting into potentially a $1 billion real estate fund to buy real estate in Bokeh and Palm Beach. Have Have you noticed what Trump is doing? Trump the real estate guy is trying to push rates lower while Trump Jr. is getting into and setting up a real estate fund in Bokeh and West Palm.
You see where we're going here? Warren Buffett's investing in pool. Dr. Horton, Lenar, the homebuilders, you've got mortgage companies starting to trend up. You kind of see we're going into a new cycle here. Everybody's still all in on like SAS and and AI, which is fine because there's a lot of money to be made there.
But if you're looking for the next cycle, the real estate cycle is very interesting. And that's why we'll probably have to end our bond fund raise soon for for house hack just because if the Fed starts really rapidly cutting rates, it doesn't make sense for us to pay out a 5% yield. Plus, you get 100% upside on the stock.
I mean, we're looking at it like, man, if we just go back to just issuing stock without yield instead of the convertibles that we're doing now, it's still a great deal in our opinion, you know, but right now, if you invest at houseack.com, you still get the 5% uh convertible uh plus all the upside in the stock.
Learn more over at houseack.com. Open to accredited nonacredited investors. Make sure to read the perspectus uh and the offering circular before investment. Every investment comes with risk. So, uh interesting. Also, Bank of England saying we're not in stagflation. The direction of rates is down. It's unclear how far that down is, but the direction is clearly down.
Little bit of talk on Trump punishing purchasers for Russian oil. Uh this comes at the, you know, moments after Putin talks about supplying over 100 billion cubic meters of natural gas to China via pipeline deals. Uh and really, I'd say the data this morning was just frankly good enough and we just don't really have a big payroll shock to worry about yet.
So we're in a bullish position, bullish catalyst, but do expect there to be some bullish catalyst nervousness going into the jobs data. Like usually what happens going into jobs data is you have some kind of sellown towards the end of the day because everybody gets nervous about jobs data at the beginning of the day and people with positioning that they have to trade, they can't trade in the pre-market right after the data.
So they just have to assume bad and then they they step back in if good, right? So, um, I'm very I I would be very bullish if we get a strong both ADP as a fact check on jobs and jobs report this week. Very exciting and and that's why, you know, our top 10 stocks to buy, seven of them are still coming up uh because they're, you know, they're going to be more dependent on the direction of our soft landing.
Can we repeat a 1995 style soft landing? Hopefully. Uh but keep in mind also the ADP report is a tool uh for fact-checking the government's data. Uh and I love that. So it's basically a private survey that gives us a little bit of a fact check on to what you know the the actual government is doing. So I like that.
And I believe the ADP the ADP might actually have a little bit more weight than the payrolls data this time around. We'll see. Uh in addition to this, you know, we were going through the ZIP earnings call. They still talk about the tempered hiring market and the dynamic market. They they kind of refuse to really talk about how bad the labor market is because they want to sound bullish for their stock, you know, Zip Reccruiter, which kind of makes sense.
Uh they do talk about how weirdly educational hiring was down year-over-year. Uh yeah, here it's actually we compared to the prior year down significantly in education. Usually healthcare and education are like your last, you know, rungs that are holding up the ladder of employment. Uh, and in the Jolts report today, we did actually get a little bit of weaker healthcare data, which was interesting.
We saw healthcare, where did I write it down? Let's see here. I'm pretty sure healthcare, healthcare, healthcare. Oh, where was it? Oh, yeah. The pullback was driven by health care, retail, leisure, and hospitality. And I wrote that's ironic because healthcare is such a boom. Keep in mind though, the Jolt's data is July data.
You know, it's kind of old news. Uh the Zip Recruiter earnings call here is from August 11th, which is a day after Lauren's birthday, and they're talking about, you know, weak in education. And they also talked about artificial like technology hiring being down 5%. Which I thought that was interesting because that's probably like they were saying, "Hey, yeah, if you want to see the impact of AI, look at technology, you know, look at the category most impacted by AI, look at technology." And they're kind of setting up like, "Look, it's going to be great." And then they go, and that was down 5% year-over-year.
And I'm like, "Oh, that's bad." Now, they they say we're not seeing a significant disruption or impact from AI in terms of jobs being posted, but I feel like they're a little broken here. I feel like like they're looking at this with rosecolored glasses, like 5% down on job postings in tech year-over-year.
That's bad. I don't know, man. I I I'm not the biggest fan of that. So, uh I I don't know. But all I know is we've got coupon code bullish catalyst over at meetke.com. get that Kevin membership, you get all 10 of the top 10 stocks to buy for the next 10 years. Obviously, not personalized financial advice, but you know, unique stocks that we're looking at that we're like, "Okay, yeah, these have a really good shot for that next cycle." You know, we want to think about what's next, not what's been.
We're not about what has been, we're about. Uh that is the goal. Uh and so, uh look also at some of the recent calls we've had on uh for example, Circle in the Alpha Report. We talked about this trending down to 120, folks. It not only broke down 120, it is now under 120. We also were bearish on coreweave.
Uh coreweave going back to 90 we said and sure enough, look at that. We reject the 105 line back down to 90. Both of those in the alpha report. Uh Iran has been another one we've been talking about on the channel, kicking butt. Uh and uh yeah, let's see what happens. We've got some other uh exciting calls as well in alpha, so we'll see what happens.
Do have a little bit of a sellown coming up towards the end of the day. Not uncommon with uh such big catalysts over the next 2 day.
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