저자: Kevin · 외국인
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RFK Jr.의 트럼프 캠프 합류 가능성이 부각되며 폴리마켓 등 베팅 시장에서 트럼프 승률이 상승했다는 점을 짚고, 해리스의 초기 상승 탄력이 둔화되는 흐름을 분석한다. 트럼프 측 정책적 장점(인프라, 군비 전용)과 RFK 입각 가능성을 논하며, 달러는 단기 반등 후 금리 인하로 약세 전환을 전망한다. 비트코인은 트럼프 승률 상승과 연동돼 단기 반등 요인으로 언급된다.
다듬은 글
holy smokes City Bank is freaking out at the potential that RFK could end up joining Donald Trump and potentially even get a seat in the Trump cabinet now I'm going to show the docks in just a moment but I quickly want to give you like a quick summary here of some sentiments that are going on I'm going to start with the more right leaning sentiment and then I'm going to give a little bit more of the left leaning sentiment so the right leaning sentiment is that the Obamas are here to help uh k Harris instill hope in the Democratic campaign and the Democratic party really has a history of doing this you look at someone like Jimmy Carter who promised more honest politics in 1976 or Bill Clinton who was literally the man from Hope Arkansas that was one of his campaign pitches he was born in Hope Arkansas and that was it anyway Obama promised hope and change you can believe in and then of course people are like H okay we got it now we got Trump you know 8 years later uh and you know then the frustr you know this this again it's purposefully I'm trying to give sort of the right perspective here the right leaning perspective with Harris people are very frustrated that she's basically just appointed and she's in without a primary contest and her speeches are scripted it's the teleprompter it's hey I used to not like fracking but now I'm open to it and I used to be for a single-payer healthcare system but now I'm not I'm different today and yeah I'm a prosecutor so that means I could be tough on crime and tough on the border and so they're really trying to take all of their weaknesses and kind of flip them around but people are like well wait where are the details it's cool to say that but we got to see some of the details even the $225,000 down payment assistant policy people like hey uh for all first-time home buyers is it like uh tax credit is it straight up stimulus money uh you know what are the the resale requirements on the property how long do you have to be a first-time home buyer for I say that because some first-time home buyer programs let you use them if you just haven't bought a home and don't currently own a home within the last you know three years or whatever anyway so uh and and then of course people on the right are frustrated that there hasn't really been a real interview yet uh with kamla Harris other than sort of scripted events and so people are a little frustrated by that uh they suggest that kamla Harris is experiencing a sugar high and that uh you know she's coming out of the gate with announcement and hope and cheer but now it's time to get into the nitty-gritty and get into the details now the left leaning position is that well you know Trump is an erratic uh insurrectionist who's impulsive and self-interested and what a bare minimum needs to happen is Democrats need to win a majority in the house or or just keep it in the Senate so they can block any kind of one party legislating like another tax cut and jobs act which frankly it seems like a lot of people kind of really like the tax cutting jobs act but okay whatever uh and uh then you also have this sort of branding from the left that's oh you know Trump is just trying to make his Rich boys richer and I mean they do have an interesting point that yes Trump is probably seen as more Pro crypto more Pro investment Community more Pro wealthier individual potentially especially since right now about 1/4th of his fundraising comes from the Securities and investment industry probably a lot of crypto folks in there that's over a 100 20ish million bucks already in 2016 they gave like oneth of that less than $21 million so kind of interesting kind of interesting there these sort of disparities here and the differences and really we're at the point in this early first kind of 35 days of the Harris campaign where Harris has started kind of polling ahead in some of the predicted numbers and in some polls again people are suggesting first of all don't believe the polls they're all ragged and nonsense which is true some polls have been found to oversample Democrats and you get a Harris Lead You could also honestly manipulate the betting markets if you have enough dalah Halas because you can kind of buy up the order book but anyway take a look what happened today and then we're going to talk about what city said regarding RFK because what you're about to see could be because of the RFK announcement look at this this is a flip Donald Trump back in the lead on poly markets betting odds with an 84.8 million bet and a 52% chance versus KLA Harris at 77 million this is after the news that RFK might on Friday announce that he's joining the Trump camp this will be a big game changer note over here on predicted we still have kamla in the lead at 53- 50 Trump but we've got this narrowing that you could see over the last uh seven days here if you go out to the 90day Chart you could see kamla Harris really had a nice wedge here over Donald Trump again this is just last kind of 30 days here people calling it The Sugar High new candidate trying to Brand herself as not having baggage and new ideas hope change whatever but it's detail time right and now after this RFK talk we're starting to see a a narrowing of that spread in fact if you go down to the 24-hour market you could see it's extremely tight just three cents apart now again after that RFK talk now some of that is likely due to the fact that rfk's sort of solo odds if we check him on here uh which they kind of drag along the bottom over here so you don't really see much of a move over here but you could see his two cents basically goes right back down it's a little harder to pit that you know his PO votes over here or the three cents here or whatever went over to Trump but we expect that's what recently happened here now why do we expect that well let's take a look at this City Bank article because it seems like city is jumping up and down over this one so are you ready for this let's go on over now I I know some of you don't like this microphone I'm working on the positioning and I'm working on uh the sound quality okay last time some of y'all are like Kevin it's too it's too muffled you sound like crap and I I don't know I think some people like Kevin there's a mic in your face like what's with all the dudes worried about the big cylindrical object you know beaming into my mouth I don't I don't know anyway so Nicole Shanahan by the way she's donated a crapload of money to the RF K campaign I think she's personally into the RFK campaign for like $15 million and you got to have a lot of money to be able to donate $15 million to a campaign because if you lose it's like man you don't want to be bankrupt uh anyway so take a look at this this is from City bank and they suggest that RFK Jr has been pulling around 5% that is significant and could be enough to tilt all the swing States in the favor of trump now that's a really really big claim here I mean this is this is like freakout level huge claim if you could get those independent voters which obviously not all of the supporters were going to go for Trump that were RFK fans after all some people are RFK fans because they don't want Trump and then they don't want a Democrat uh but they would have been okay with RFK as a Democrat if he still were still there but he would have gotten primary so that's why he's independent now but anyway this idea that RFK could potentially jump onto the Trump campaign and then move maybe even call it 3% of that vote over well if you move 3% of the vote over in the betting markets what do you have well let's look at it uh oh that's Bill Amman I meant to go oh that's the wrong button sorry there uh you've got uh now all of a sudden you got Trump tied on predict it Trump way ahead on poly market and if you go to the real clear uh politics betting average or sort of poll average right now we could see that kamla Harris has a lead over Trump of 1.5% that would basically go to a 1.5 percentage point lead for Trump and mind you it's it's not really the popular vote that you need you just need the swing States so this is a GameChanger uh take from City Bank here that suggests joining forces with Trump which which Donald Trump did suggest mind you back um I think it was in July June or July uh suggested that hey you know maybe you could be part of our campaign or our Administration in the future or whatever apparently the markets are really excited about that potential because they're seeing Oh My Gosh RFK could be the solution to slam dunking the swing States and boom you get a trump presidency which then you have a lot of people who are saying oh smokes if we get that well then what we're going to end up with is a market that might actually start rallying again in fact you had a stock market that had a little bit of heart palpitations when kamla was first uh selected it was almost like you were un pricing Trump and now you've had a little bit of a rally back the last you know nineish days roughly uh and and people are suggesting oh we're we're pricing back in some more Trump odds but anyway let's keep going with this city piece and this microphone come on some I know some of you like it leave some support for the new microphone it's German it must be good then right all right anyway so uh we noted that we could be approaching Peak Harris and an official decision from RFK to join Trump would further support this right and now keep in mind one of the reasons you might say something like PE haris is because the initial Euphoria of a candidate announcing is great but then people start questioning the details of your policy plans like what what are you actually going to do about the Border that's different because RFK for example you know some people and I wrote these notes on the right over here some people say oh that's that antivaxer guy but RFK actually has some pretty decent ideas and solid ideas and when you listen to him you're like man okay yeah maybe this guy isn't as crazy as as sort of his reputation that precedes him implies he is and those who support him really support him uh they may follow his endorsement because frankly think about it this way you might hate Trump but if you say all right RFK is definitely out but he has a chance to get in a seat of government through the Trump Administration well now you have to ask yourself would you rather have RFK in government or not and if Trump is the conduit to get your guy in government great I personally think and I didn't read this anywhere I just want to be clear this is my opinion I personally think you should put RFK in something that's less public not too much of like a speaking role I I'm just trying to be blunt it I I don't think he's the best for the a speaking role but put him as like the head of the Department of Transportation or DHS or something you know Department of Homeland Security and put him in charge of uh infrastructure or border reforms both of those by the way he stands for he stands for rebuilding infrastructure rebuilding the middle class he's actually one of the candidates who's a fan of diverting some you know he's not trying to say like oh let's make America not safe but diverting some of the excessive sort of in the opinion of some military spending for other efforts like Ukraine or Israel or whatever divert some of that and just take some of that money and start spending on infrastructure in the United States which frankly is a frustration of a lot of people people are like why why are we spending so much money on these other countries when we have our own problems at home now obviously the counterargument to that is oh well it's for National Security a weak Russia is a strong United States blah blah blah blah blah whatever right uh this is of course then where you can kind of combine the argument and say oh well if you know if Trump were President we wouldn't have had a new war and then we would have had to spend the new money and we could have spent the money on the infrastructure plan now Donald Trump did have an infrastructure proposal back when he was a president the first time it didn't pass well it didn't well it actually never came to the table because I think Co hit you know they focused on the tax cut and jobs act by midterms you already lost uh the the the sweep power that you had in Congress you lost control of of uh all three branches and then of course Co hit and not try to make excuses I'm just trying to acknowledge that you know Trump did run on infrastructure and we got smaller infrastructure plans Stone XL Pipeline Water Act billions of dollars for various different initiatives but not that big sort of sweeping sweeping reform I think this might be an opportunity for Trump to say look no wars were started on my watch we're going to make sure that doesn't happen again and the money we save will be able to put into infrastructure and guess what RFK is going to lead that division uh or or you know lead the infrastructure spending and make sure that we make America great again whatever right that's sort of an argument that you could take uh if you're thinking about this and uh and I actually agree with City here that really if you combine forces with RFK I think you almost have to guarantee the guy a cabinet role because what you don't want is Trump coming across as like a user because you know people aren't going to put that past Trump let's just be real uh even if you like the guy you're going to agree like if if Trump can win with RFK and then not use him if he didn't need him in the C in in the administration he'll just dump him but if Trump makes the promise he doesn't want to come across as a liar although I know plenty of people already think he is or convinced he is whatever but the point is Trump should make that promise upfront because I think it would actually give him more of a guarantee that those RFK voters are going to turn out for Trump if that's what Trump wants I actually do think that this potentially hurts the Harris Camp because what you're doing is you're taking somebody who was a Democrat and you're basically showing the Centrist ISM of a you know RFK Trump and advanced ticket essentially I shouldn't be saying ticket because a Cabinet member is not on the ticket but you know what I mean uh Coalition we'll call it right uh and you do have Harris moving closer to the center as well she's trying to get away from the defund the police and some of the more woke politics because everybody's trying to win this election on centrism now of course there is a risk that you know RFK is just going to be branded as the antia guy now in Trump's Administration look he's much further to the right blah blah blah blah blah of course they're going to say that but I don't think you're trying to convince that audience anyway like they're already going to not vote for Trump anyway so uh right now take a look at this there two options we're looking at this is what Nicole mentioned and one is staying in the race forming that new party but we run the risk of kamla Harris and walse uh becoming uh uh basically the the the nominee or the president rather president-elect because we draw votes from Trump right you're taking votes away from Trump by doing your own thing or we combine forces with Trump now uh you've got a city group here who thinks they might be able to get 5% in National polls which would set them up for federal funding in future elections but that might not be worth it if RFK could guarantee something inside of that Trump campaign and uh and and and City Bank turns this into sort of an economic POV and argues that uh the dollar will actually rise on this strong dollar under this Trump news I kind of think it's more likely that the dollar will weaken maybe not necessarily on the news maybe it'll go up on that news but I actually think it'll weaken in the longer term because rates are going to down I think they're going to go down faster than other people project and I think Trump actually prefers a weak dollar because he sees it as making the United States more competitive for other companies buying stuff from the US rather than us buying stuff from you know an artificially cheap let's say China because they're uh you know weak purposefully weakening their Chinese Yuan whatever so uh anyway should RFK actually join Trump we expect to see a tactical boost in the USD right so it could fade over time so they see that as an election trade but I will say it's very interesting here they seem convinced that uh Donald Trump will basically win all the swing States if he partners with uh with RFK and uh honestly it um it seems like it's getting a lot of attention and and the betting markets are already starting to try to price it in so could happen here and honestly I was wondering I'm like why did Bitcoin Spike you know like a couple thousand bucks today I think it could be because of this you know people are starting to analyze and say oh this actually might increase the odds of trump uh and then you get the Bitcoin trade that comes back a little bit so as soon as you got KLA Bitcoin actually started selling down which I covered on the day Biden dropped out I'm like oh my gosh this could be bad for Bitcoin in the short term because you have to unpriced Trump a little bit just to be clear about that Biden didn't have a chance so it was like a slam dunk that Trump was going to win so when you put anyone else in the position whether it was a cone or comma or whatever or Nome you would have seen Bitcoin go down my expectation so uh anyway uh one other thing to remember is that this week is Jackson whole week very very important I'll have another video prepping you for that but we did make a coupon code at meetkevin.com Jackson Hole so if you want to see my positioning we're making a a new channel that'll show you all of my open positions uh exactly you know the uh the the name the security the the expiration date if it's a contract whatever so that way you could look in one place and just go okay what's Kevin's positioning right now you'll be able to see that uh so we're going to make that a little easier uh along with uh some of the larger trades that I've got going on uh separating those out away from sort of like YOLO option like YOLO swing trades or whatever and showing you look here's where we have fundamental hedge fund style trades like you know I've got a couple multi-million dollar bets going uh each of them over a million dollars uh in different sectors that I think uh those are big hedge style trades that I really believe in and we'll separate those from sort of long-term Investments and then like a YOLO like oh I think it's you know we're going to bet this on earnings or whatever so that way there's a lot of ease and transparency uh a lot of folks have been uh really excited about that so you could join that and see that as well just uh go to meet kevin.com before the Jackson hle Symposium which it was less than 40 hours away now so check it out over at meet.com
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