저자: Kevin · 외국인
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증시는 8일 연속 상승했으나 고용 데이터 하향 수정(벤치마크 리비전 100만 명 안팎 추정) 우려가 크다. 연준은 중립금리 이하까지 완화가 필요할 수 있으며 시장은 이를 충분히 반영하지 않았다는 주장. 구인율·고용 선행지표 약화, AI 기반 감원, 기업이익 전망 하락, 파산 증가 등을 근거로 침체 가능성을 강조한다. 금리 하락(채권 랠리) 베팅을 언급하며 6월 말 이후 금 강세, 엔화 강세 캐리트레이드 위험도 제기한다. 발언자는 본인 포지션을 밝히지만 구체적 종목 방향은 제시하지 않는다.
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you are not going to want to miss the information we're talking about in this video because this is a total Game Changer and it's not what you're expecting probably at least see the market has rallied 8 days in a row had we closed green today we would have had nine straight green days in a row something that has not happened since a market rally in 2004 coming out of the do bub collapse well today the rally failed its ninth day and the questions we have now well come down to a lot of problems one what's this Bureau of Labor Statistics labor revision everyone's talking about are we going into a recession or are we in a recession where's Kevin on the bare bull scale I mean the Market's been going up the last eight days so surely he's going to flip-flop to Bull right well we're going to talk about that in this video is the market pricing in any quantitative easing or a stimulative Fed at all and will the Federal Reserve go with a 50 BP cut or frankly has the FED already gone too far we're going to talk about all of that and much more in this video and boy there's some big big things you want to take notes on on this one but first I have to get it out of the way like this stain on the jacket over here it'll wash away I've got this million dooll trade that I've built up and if you want to know exactly why I built it up and what it is actually two trades one part and another part both of them are equally worth over a million dollars and their trades for the second half of this year they consider them both Hedges and frankly a long-term investment they're not puts don't worry uh but anyway if you want to learn more about those and my strategies around those why I'm looking at these e've got a coupon code expiring this Friday for Jackson Hole so it's a special aotter Jackson Hole coupon code haven't pitched a coupon code in probably a couple weeks here one to two weeks something like that to all of you so just wanted to mention There's an opportunity coming up for Jackson Hole and that's it for the mention for now let's hop on to the content the research institute mizuo is nervous about employment they see slowing hiring soft household employment data softening payroll employment and Rising unemployment and their question now is how much is inflation going to weak and how much is the jobs Market going to weaken and their answer a lot and a lot and their critical takeaway in their article was that the Federal Reserve is priced right now for a quote decent easing cycle that would only take the Federal Reserve to the top of the neutral end of where the Federal Reserve rates might actually end up in the long term and this they say is actually somewhat problematic I want you to to see this I'm going to throw this up on screen right here this is a screenshot of what they're saying and I wrote on the left basically no stimulus priced in and I'm not talking about stimulus stimulus checks I'm talking about the fact that the FED is restrictive right now and the market is only pricing in the FED going to neutral well if the FED needs to go stimulative rates can fall a lot further than currently priced and and this in their opinion suggests that investors should continue to buy backups in Market rates now what the heck are those well backups and Market rates are basically a way of saying hey maybe you want to buy treasury bonds or something that's going to lock you into higher yields because if the FED needs to go to well frankly just neutral cool that's priced in but if they need to price in any amount of easing that hasn't been done yet and so on top of this fear about the employment cycle rolling over we've got big employment data tomorrow big employment data tomorrow that quite frankly is probably going to show the economy is a lot weaker than we had originally thought on Benchmark revisions this is what they're called Bureau of Labor Statistics Benchmark revisions they come out at 10:00 a.m.
on uh the morning of what do we got here Wednesday the 21st Mizu suggests we already have most of the information it's not going to be a huge surprise that the revision is going to be massively to the downside in other words we created way fewer jobs than we actually were told we created under the Biden Administration in the last year not a surprise and it's not designed to get political it's just the way it works except these revisions are probably going to be in the magnitude of 1991 or 2009 both recessionary periods Goldman Sachs thinks the number is going to come in around 600,000 to a million Mizu thinks the number will come in as high as 1.1 million in terms of a negative jobs revision so in other words you take the total bundle of all the jobs we created over the last year and now take out up to 1.1 million or nearly a 100,000 fewer jobs per month that would be in line with the weaker household survey it's why we keep seeing that spread between the payroll survey which asks bosses how many employees they have and the household survey which asks household how like do they have a job or not and and those surveys have kind of been widening suggesting there's something wrong with the data well these revisions might finally kill the charade at least for now now a lot of people think the gig is up or The Jig Is up and we're going to see some really bad potentially recession fear inducing numbers at 7:00 a.m.
California time tomorrow or 10 a.m. it's interesting it gives you 30 minutes of trading right before that or 10 a.m. uh Eastern Time Goldman though doesn't actually think it'll be that bad bad because Goldman thinks the downward revision will be overstated mostly because it might not count all of the work authorized illegal immigrants now adding to jobs though I think most Americans are going to listen to what Goldman said and they're going to say bro if we're now relying on illegals with work authorization to prop up our economy then our economy truly is effed but anyway mizuo says that this report tomorrow is likely to contribute to a downside yield and curve steepening risk now I can't give any guarantees I have no idea what's going to happen but I've got a big trade going on this and that's uh my million dooll trade so we'll see which way it goes if you want to see what it is make sure you join uh before tomorrow when that release comes out could just go to meetkevin.com if you need a bundle coupon email us at uh staff meetkevin.com this isn't like a YOLO trade either where it's like oh yeah it's like a Friday call option or some YOLO that's going to go to zero this is like this is my opinion a real trade but anyway since there is one more employment report for before Jackson Hole on Friday mizuo thinks that the Federal Reserve is actually going to leave the door open to aggressive easing from the fed this kind of aligns with what ever core isi suggests which is that we might see a Fed suggest a 50 basis point cut in the September meeting especially since the September meeting is also a signaling meeting where we get the summary of economic projections where they could give us a 25 or 50 and potentially talk doish about the market to really Drive yields down quickly and aggressively it's a big trade in that you should be seeing it loud and clearly but anyway something to watch though is the layoff rate okay the layoff rate is right now still under one now don't worry I know that doesn't really mean anything to you right now so I'm going to give you history historically the layoff rate sits around 1 .2 with full employment that's your layoff rate if hiring keeps falling though and then all of a sudden you get a normalization of the layoff rate in other words hiring Falls and the layoff rate Rises just back to normal Mizu thinks you could see the unemployment rate move sharply higher which would move you into a recession notice everything even though we've had a good week here with lagging data unemployment claims you know University of Michigan sentiment PPI CPI export prices who cares right all of this lagging data the leading indicators like job openings we're going to talk about and some of the other things you'll see in this video they're actually weakening they make me more bearish and there's a reason I haven't made an economic video in four or five days because I've been reading and studying this every single day to put this video together to just give you a calm put together perspective that's hopefully balanced I I know some of this sounds negative initially to start with but we're going to balance it because this I'll show you why this could be wrong as well but anyway Mizu says that if the labor market weakens it would be reasonable to assume that the Federal Reserve is going to need to add stimulus that is they're going to take rates below 3% we're not going to be neutral we're going to go way below that and the Market's not currently pricing that in especially since when you have the basically jobs added level sitting around 990,000 you're kind of looking at periods historically that align with either recessions or really soft labor markets it's also worth noting that the job openings rate that a lot of people talk about which I will show you a picture of right here because I keep seeing it on X people keep posting these job openings rates and they say oh the last two recessions started with 8 and6 job Seekers per jobs per per Seeker basically in other words you had way fewer openings than you had workers well right now we're sitting at like 1.2 so people are like see we're not in a recession yet but there's a problem with this chart Publications like I can't remember which one it was it was either Robo bank or TS Lombard they've suggested that the job openings rate may be artificially High because companies just forget to take down their old and stale listings and the web portals actually incentivize people not to take down the listings because the longer those listings are forgotten the more profit those companies get and the job listing websites are already getting smoked because we have such a soft labor market right now so they're like no no no please don't cancel your listing we need the money so in other words this line could already be in a recessionary level and and we just don't know or see it yet because you know a we don't want to and and B well frankly we use the internet ironically to find jobs a lot more today than we did yes again ironically then in the dot bubble and in 08 everybody's got an app now to find a job we didn't even have an app store uh in I mean in 2008 the app store for Apple came out in 2009 I remember it was in the summer of 2009 is is hanging out at Lauren's house anyway uh this this really suggests a downside bias to this chart on top of that you've got BCA research that currently thinks we could be pricing in a yearend recession listen to this ahead of recessions firms usually reduce the pace of hiring before they start firing the jol's hiring rate is now well below pre-pandemic levels see that's a leading indicator hires tabulated by these various different firms were down 43% in the first 7 months of the year relative to the same period a year ago folks a 43% decline from a year ago on top of that the job opening rate today is flat from its post-pandemic peak of 7.4 to 4.9% our Global investment strategy team highlights the current pace of decline in the job openings level at this current Pace rather the economy will reach the I'm just going to translate this to English the bad point in the beaver curve and at that point Rising unemployment will trigger a negative feedback loop self-fulfilling culminating in a recession now just like in super plain English here when people start firing they start firing fast and it's no surprise that Muhammad Allan is now suggesting that expectations of losing one's job is currently at record high levels according to the New York fed survey going back to 2014 Now it only goes back to 2014 so I don't actually think that one's like super super useful but something else that is super super useful my opinion is considering that well wait a minute what could actually be contributing to layoffs that has started occurring over the last year oh what's this Dennis on X brutal company's marketing team begins using AI company realizes it doesn't need the entire marketing team 75% of team gets laid off these I call them AI enabled layoffs where basically what you have are companies that start saying okay we're not really growing revenues as fast so but we need to show our investors growth so let's grow EPS in order to grow EPS what are we going to do let's just just lay people off because then our earnings will look higher from our existing book of business now we'll talk about revenues flattening in just a moment that part's still coming but it shows you that uhoh yeah if you get a self-fulfilling loop it's likely that the productivity enhancements we've gotten from AI could actually make companies more interested in laying off other people more rapidly it's not good all right so then Mizu on inflation now this is a really really interesting one so this is a special little chart they put together here and I want you to see this red arrow right here this red arrow points at the green line the red arrow suggests that Trend inflation actually started declining around the end of 2021 now this is actually crazy because it suggests that if Trend inflation was going down then it basically means we had these weird little Transit hits as to why inflation went up in 2021 and 2022 rather than sort of a long-term Trend this is critical because a lot of people believe we're just going to have a second wave of inflation we're basically screwed but the reality is if we end up having lower Trend inflation and all this stuff was truly transitory then people are probably really misposition positioning themselves and they should be positioning themselves for uh a recession and for deflation not for demand inflation is right here where the Green Arrow is and you can see that demand inflation sits at just under 1% uh the left bar left side is is just under the 1% there uh but usually we sit slightly under the 0% line this means that when that blue line continues to normalize we might actually see pce inflation closer to 1% than 2% this is according to Mizu I'm not making this up this means the Federal Reserve might actually have already overdone it inflation might end up closer to 1% and we'll be right back at flexible average inflation targeting where the fed's trying to get inflation back up again and then we get to 0% interest rates QE and we're right back to the bubble cycle except a bunch of people lost all their money in the stock market crashed on the way down to that cut to zero I gu I I don't want to be a bear because I I feel like I'm like talking down people's portfolios or whatever and people are like oh no it's bad it's like well as long as you don't stick your head in the sand you know have an opinion on it it's important uh but you know all of this is also consistent with what TS Lombard is seeing with European inflation as well suggesting that shipping rates appear to have peaked insurance rates appear to have peaked disinflation in core Goods has probably reached a bottom but it's probably going to stay around there the services uh inflation has probably peaked out we weaker commodity costs all these things basically leading to fading inflationary concerns on top of that what you're seeing is well quite frankly earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies plummeting yeah not good look at the white line the white line is the stock price chart of the S&P 500 the Orange Line are earnings per share projections which are plummeting so why is the stock market still going up as projections are plummeting fomo well I mean that's just a theory I I I don't know with certainty but that's what some are thinking uh anyway uh you know these these issues in total are problematic already everything we've talked about but I'm just going to add a few more things in here startup failures have surged by more than 60% in the past year on top of that we have the highest level of bankruptcies since Q2 2017 and the highest quantity of chapter 11 filings since 2011 in the last 13 years that's not good either oops wrong button over there that's not good either so if only people were potentially starting to prepare I mean In fairness we did get good news good news on Israel Israel and Iran seem to have cooled their Jets quite literally a deal with Hamas maybe more imminent in strikes uh we do have uh very low hedging happening right now that could be explaining why the market Skyrocket over the last eight days put call ratios are at the lowest we've seen since July of 2021 suggesting that a lot of what we've recently seen has been a bit of a short squeeze and central banks are starting to stockpile gold which might be why gold is over $2500 which also kind of makes sense because frankly if rates are going to get cut people think that the value of the dollar which I think will fall about 10% very soon or more uh will you know currencies will lose value and gold might preserve its value or if there's a recession actually go up substantially in value these these are all bad right I hate to say this so now on top of all of this we did have a foreshadowing of this a August 5th crash and I hate saying that because it's kind of like oh my gosh like there was a warning sign tell me what that warning sign is so we can watch for new flareups Yeah we actually covered it here on YouTube it was the spike in the sofa rate that's the standard overnight uh rate so for funding rate and uh it spiked in earlier in July and uh and it sort of you I remember making a YouTube video on this and I was like hm this signals liquidity stress and potentially something bad that's about to happen and then we had August 5th so now I mean I didn't know exactly what was going to happen then obviously uh but now it's like hm okay now you got my attention to the sofa raate I'm going to pay attention to this a little bit more now something else that's also not great is the US dollar now equals roughly as many Japanese Yen as it did on August 5th and hedge funds seem to be more interested in going bullish the Yen which means as we get rate cuts the dollar goes down the Yen gets bought by hedge funds which I kid you not that's literally what's happening right now see look hedge funds have finally turned net bullish on the Japanese Yen so the Yen gets bought so Yen goes up dollar gets sold dollar goes down what gets worse the potential carry trade yeah so you you could potentially be setting up yet another carry trade disaster I I it's just H all of this in net is just not good now I'm going to do a quick summary of this uh and then I'm going to leave you with some closing thoughts here because this is a lot of information to take in I understand that and uh my goal is just to simplify this as much as possible uh I do want to quickly say that you do have Goldman Sachs that gives you a little bit of an alternative view I'm sorry it was Deutsche Bank not Goldman Sachs Deutsche Bank says companies are waiting and seeing that yes their customers are delaying orders or pushing out or deferring orders they're not abandoning or canceling those orders and Deutsche Bank doesn't see signs of a recession yet so this kind of your flip side argument that things are just normalizing that this is all just part of the the noise and part for the course and and you would expect all of this noise and a normalization that's fine and it's entirely possible that this could just be normalization but let's just say to me things feel a lot worse than normalization so what are some of my bottom lines on all of this well first of all maybe check out that stocks and sight course and even though I can't guarantee you you're going to make money on every single trade or idea at least you know where my head is so when you hear or see data like this you could look around and say okay well how is Kevin positioning how are other people positioning and then decide for yourself do I want to do the opposite of Kevin do I want to do something similar to that or something different but take some inspiration from it's none of this personalized Financial advice it's just designed to give perspective so bottom line I'm a 2.9 on the bare bull scale and honestly it kind of starting to lean down not up I know it sucks to be a bear when markets are going up but and I mean last week's data was nice but the anchor here is still heavily in recessionary water mostly thanks to declining leading indicators on jobs declining growth Revenue expectations we've seen those turn flat AI enabled job firings to boost DPS and plummeting job openings and higher rates when the joblessness hits it'll hit fast first slowly and then all at once the faster the Federal Reserve can react great but remember when the FED hit us with interest rate increases there was a lag what do you think there's going to be on the way down another lag good luck I love you all and I wish you the best
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