저자: 모하메드엘-에리언 · 외국인
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글로벌 경제 약화 지속 속에 ECB·연준 정책 효과에 대한 우려가 크며, 시장은 당분간 변동성이 큰 전술적 대응이 필요하다는 진단. 중앙은행 정책: ECB가 자산규모 확대와 마이너스 금리 심화를 추진할 가능성이 높다고 봄. 일본은행 마이너스 금리 사례처럼 정책 효과가 역전되는 '유효성 한계' 지점이 위험하다고 지적. 마이너스 금리는 현금 선호를 높여 통화량을 수축시키고, 금리 인상은 달러를 강화하지만 과도하면 역효과 가능. 시장 전망: 중앙은행 개입이 역효과를 내면 변동성이 재차 확대될 수 있음. 투자자는 전략적 장기 투자와 별개로 전술적 대응이 필요하며, ±10% 수준의 큰 등락에 대비해 반등 시 매도, 과도한 하락 시 매수 전략 제시. 경기 및 중국: 미국 경제는 점진적으로 개선 중이나 세계 경제 둔화로 완전한 디커플링은 어렵다고 봄. 중국 1분기 무역지표가 25% 이상 급감해 우려, 중국 당국의 대응 방향은 아직 불명확. 중국 공산체제의 장기 성장 한계를 언급하며 중국 집착에 반대. 미국 대선: 대선 결과 불확실성이 가격 결정을 어렵게 만드는 요인이며, 향후 예비선거 진행에 따라 명확성이 높아질 것으로 전망.
다듬은 글
investors around the world are looking to tomorrow's European Central Bank Meeting joining us right now is Alliance chief economic adviser Muhammad L Aran Mohammad good to see you wonderful to be here yes so tomorrow the ECB meeting and then next week you've got a Federal Reserve meeting tomorrow will probably be the big event for markets yes I think so yes what are you expecting I expect they will do more I think I think they will expand their balance sheet operations they may even push interest rates more negative and that is a really risky move but most importantly is how close are they from being effective to being ineffective we've seen the bank of Japan cross that line and the global system can't afford to have another big Central Bank cross that line so if they cross that line that do you think that would be a big negative for markets do we continue what we saw earlier in the year yeah if they cross that line if we get the same perverse reaction that we got when the bank of Japan took interest rates negative remember they expected the currency to depreciate it appreciated they expected the stock market to Rally it sold off if we get a perverse reaction because people say I don't think central bank can do it anymore then this will add another bout of volatility at a time when the global economy continues to weaken yeah yeah you know it's interesting to me when you drive interest rates negative you actually encourage people to hold more cash which in Japan you can't get a safe these days because they're just sold out they're wow is that right that's so interesting and and and um and so what's fascinating is that actually and you and I understand this monetary policy stuff but that actually makes the money supply contract as more people move into Cash whereas in the United States when we're raising rates we actually have M2 accelerating so it it's sort of amazing you would think driving rates negative well we're raising rates makes the dollar strengthen but it can actually be the opposite we've seen it in Japan if you rely on an imperfect instrument and you go too far then you get the collateral damage of using something that's not well suited for the task at hand and that's what's happened we've we've relied on central banks for too long and markets have thought central banks are their best friends forever well we're finding out you know it's pretty hard to be a best friend forever Mohamed what about the crazy idea that central banks just do nothing that they just back off and say particularly with the signs that what they're trying to do isn't working and the markets don't trust it any longer you know a central bank is like a doctor it will never abandon his or her patient so this notion that the central banks will suddenly say I don't have the perfect medication so I'm walking away they don't do that that's not in their nature so they'll continue to try and do something the critical thing is the handoff a handoff to a more comprehensive policy approach that unleashes growth that's what's needed characterize where we are right now in that regard in terms of growth I was feeling recently that sentiment had begun to change that we're seeing some better numbers do you think the broad macro story is getting better so I think in the United States it is getting better gradually the problem is you cannot be a good house in a bad neighborhood and the neighborhood the global economy continues to weaken the numbers out of China earlier this week the trade numbers were scary they were scary down more than 25% correct some of it is seasonal but this economy continues to slow slow down and the Chinese authorities haven't figured out yet what they need to do so we are a good house but we cannot be totally decoupled from the neighborhood I you know I would I would partly agree with that but it but you know China is a communist country it doesn't have the rule of law doesn't have democracy no communist country has ever been successful at long-term growth and and I think China's getting close to the end so why are we so focused on China well we shouldn't be um I I I would change it the opposite way if your neighbor wants to drink himself to death unless your seven-year-old daughter sees it happen all on the front lawn your your house is fine and so so the bottom line is is that I've never believed that foreign Japan collapsed they were the number two economy in the world and the US had a great 1990 so this idea that they can take us down or the world down I'm not but they have been right I mean that's been a big focus in fear they've caused fear last year oil prices came down we needed all the pipeline railroads I mean pumps everything we needed and all that stopped and now we're growing again and so I think last year was a story of collapsing oil drilling this year is a sto story where that no longer pulls us down would you put new money to work in in equities today right now no I think you have to be more tactical I think we will continue to have volatility and the hardest thing for investors is how do you be tactical when you want to be strategic and what this Market is telling you is we're going to have massive plus and minus 10% swings and if you want to make money this year you're going to have to have a tactical element in addition to your strategic element what does that mean Mohammad it means that you're going to have to fade rallies and then you're going to have the courage to step in when things clearly have overshot is the election going to be do you think the presidential election becomes a catalyst for for markets I think it becomes a contributor to price movement so far my sense is markets don't know how to price it there are so many potential outcomes this has been such a surprising season that markets simply don't know how to price it do you price a broker convention do you what what do you price so markets are waiting for clarity and we're going to have more clarity in the next couple of weeks as these primaries continue yeah it's it's really been an uncertain period of syst pretty amazing Muhammad great to have your inside thank congratulations on the book Thank you very much Muhammad L Aran
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