저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
마이크론 주가가 한 달간 27% 하락했지만 실적은 매출 415억 달러(전년 대비 4배 이상), 영업이익률 80.4%로 급증 중이다. 2026년 공급 부족이 2027년 이후까지 이어질 전망이며, 데이터센터 투자 확대와 교체 수요가 새로운 수요원이다. 선행 PER 5.3배로 저평가, DCF 적정가 1,487달러 대비 현재 주가 820달러는 크게 저평가됐다고 판단하며 '매수 기회'로 본다.
다듬은 글
마이크론 주가 급락 원인과 분석
Micron shares have fallen more than 27% in the last month, and I want to reconsider this company. Let's look at their latest results. Let's review the forecasts and compare them to the current valuation, now that the stock price is lower, to determine whether this is still a profitable buying opportunity.
2026년 주가 급등 배경
. Micron's stock price performance in 2026 was simply insane. They fell by 27% in the last month, but if we look at the year-to-date figures, they are still up more than 187 %. I am encouraged by Micron's improving fundamentals. The share price did not rise due to excessive enthusiasm. The stock price has risen because the company's sales, profits, and cash flow are growing rapidly.
분기 매출 415억 달러, 4배 성장
Last quarter, Micron reported revenue of $41.5 billion. This is more than 4 times the $9.3 billion the company reported in the same quarter last year. The management team said it believes that their multi-year strategic agreements with customers will significantly enhance the stability and predictability of Micron's strong financial results.
장기 계약과 가격 하한선
In other words, they expect the good times to continue because they have entered into long-term contracts. The management team explained in more detail during a conference call with Wall Street analysts that even at the prices they signed under these strategic deals, the lower bounds of these prices would still deliver profitability well above any level of the company's previous peak cycle .
영업이익과 영업이익률 급증
In other words, they negotiated these long-term agreements, and in these agreements, they stipulated a price range for their customers. They said it would be at least that amount, and possibly more, depending on market conditions. The management team told investors that even at the lower end of the price range in these client deals, the profitability level would still be significantly higher than the company's previous peak profitability figures .
영업이익률 80.4%의 의미
Speaking of profitability, this company has never been more profitable. Operating income rose to $33.3 billion last quarter. That's about 15 times more than the $2.2 billion they reported in the same quarter last year. So, are you starting to see a trend here? The company's stock price rose, but revenue and profits rose even more.
가격 상승과 산업 공급 부족
Operating margin at 80.4% increased almost 4 times from 23.3%. Moreover, with an operating profit margin of 80.4%, it is the most profitable company among those I analyze, and I cover over 100, closer to 200 companies. There is no other company that reports an operating profit margin above 80.4%. Of course, the big and quite legitimate concern for investors is how long can these “good times” last?
2028년 이후 공급 증가 전망
Micron generates this revenue and profit growth through higher prices for its products. The semiconductor industry, and especially the memory and storage sector , is known for its wild price fluctuations. The company noted that the industry will remain in a supply deficit until the end of 2026 and, likely, even beyond 2027.
설비투자와 신규 공장 계획
But starting in 2028, we will see a significant increase in the supply of memory and storage devices, which could affect prices across the industry. Micron itself is investing in a significant expansion of production. In the third quarter of 2026, they invested $7.1 billion in capital expenditures, mostly to expand production capacity.
4분기 가이던스 매출 500억 달러
They are launching new facilities in 2027, and are also preparing new capacities for the period from 2028 to 2030. Additionally, the company is investing in next-generation technologies that promise to improve the performance of its memory and storage systems. For the fourth quarter of 2026, Micron forecasts $50 billion in revenue with a gross margin of about 86%.
AI 변화에 대한 투자자 불안
This is approximately 25% sequential growth compared to the previous quarter, and gross margin will increase from 84.6% to 86%. So , next quarter, Micron expects to continue its successful period: revenue will grow by 25% per quarter, and in annual terms - by a much larger amount with a profitability of about 86%.
선행 PER 5.3배의 저평가
It is logical to assume that operating profitability will gradually increase compared to the indicators of the last completed quarter . Despite all this, investors are becoming increasingly nervous about Micron due to the rapidly changing dynamics surrounding artificial intelligence. The industry is moving so fast that it's hard for investors to feel confident.
DCF 적정주가와 잉여현금흐름 전망
It seems like every day, from one corner of the world or another, there are reports of innovations that threaten one sector of the industry or another. Micron shares have fallen more than 27% in the past month, but the valuation still remains relatively low. Micron trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of just 5.3.
데이터센터 수요와 교체 주기
Total 5.3. That's cheaper than valuing companies like Verizon or AT&T, which have zero growth expectations for the foreseeable future and forever. While Micron may be a cyclical company with ups and downs, the long-term growth trend for this company is higher. Additionally, I calculated the fair value of Micron using my discounted cash flow model, which indicates a price of $1,487 per share.
결론: 세대에 한 번의 매수 기회
This suggests that the stock is significantly undervalued at a price of $820. I predict that Micron will generate $49 billion in free cash flow in 2026, rising to $116 billion in 2027, and then even more—to $147 billion in 2028, before declining in 2029 to $125 billion. From that point on, I predict significant growth, and in 2035 the company's free cash flow will reach $397 billion.
So, within this discounted cash flow estimate, I foresee significant growth for Micron. And that's because I see structural changes in the demand for memory and data storage. Companies, namely just five companies , will collectively spend an estimated $800 billion in 2026. That's up from an estimated $500 billion last year, and estimates for 2027 suggest data center spending will reach a trillion dollars.
Now, growth is likely to continue into 2028, and since then, there will be many trillions of dollars worth of new data centers added over the previous five or six years. These data centers and the components within them will require constant updating and modernization. So Micron will feel the demand for the replacement cycle from these data centers and the customers who operate them.
This is a completely new source of demand for Micron, while previously the data center market may have accounted for less than 10% of total demand for Micron. So, to answer the question I posed in the title, I believe this drop, crash, or decline—whatever you want to call it—in Micron stock is a buying opportunity.
This may even be a once-in-a- generation buying opportunity. I rated this as a buying opportunity with high confidence and updated this rating on July 28, 2026. By the way, if you want to access these earnings reports that I highlight and provide, you can access them through a channel membership at the investor level or above.
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