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well my boy Ross Gerber is back at it again making headlines last time it was for wanting to challenge the Tesla board of directors and run for a seat on the board at Tesla this time around it's ooh not being spun as the best news that Ross Gerber has gotten himself into Ross Gerber visited if only you knew Dan Oda danodad is a dude who's run this technology company a legacy style technology company that's created software that has been used by the likes of the government and in Adas software and essentially runs a company that provides software that competes to some extent with Tesla's full self-driving him Daniel Dodd has made it his mission to be critical of FSD and Elon Musk in Tesla even though allegedly he owns an original Tesla Roadster though it's worth noting the original Tesla Roadster which I also once owned doesn't have any FSD it's just a dressed up Lotus Elise with a battery bag in it so what do we have with Dano Dodd and Ross Gerber and did we just get another price uh a downgrade from another Wall Street Bank a yes in fact we'll talk about both Morgan Stanley's downgrade for Tesla and Goldman Sachs downgrade for Tesla in just a moment but first ah we have to look at something that unfortunately is not so great and now I'm going to give my commentary on this and my suspicions on this I live approximately 40 minutes away from where this incident occurred so when I feel better I will visit this uh area and conduct my own sort of research and investigation into this uh but I will tell you upon first viewing this clip I was uh very disappointed uh in uh in um well I'll I'll give you my commentary after I play it um so let's uh go ahead and play this clip which is unfortunate because I want to say that I truly believe in my heart Ross Gerber went to visit Dan or Dodd to show Dan odaw the light the show danodad how Greatful self-driving has become and how far it's gone the problem is and this is what happens when you enter the the uh the pig pen so to speak you know when when they say what's the saying when you wrestle with pigs you get muddy or you get poop all over yourself this isn't to say that anybody's vague particularly it's just to say when you wrestle with haters you know you say one thing wrong and 99 things correctly oh people will only Elevate the one thing that was wrong and Ross Gerber had a sit-down interview with this gentleman I think people should listen to it he spent an hour driving on FSD in Santa Barbara in almost a perfect manner with the exception of this one clip and this one clip is the only thing the internet cares about of course it has because that's how the internet works uh but anyway anybody who actually uses FSD knows whole well that FSD is not perfect you have to pay attention especially at those Edge case scenarios if you are a Tesla owner you know where those edge cases are I get onto certain highways I'm like ah the car makes me a little uncomfortable here I take over I get to certain intersections I'm like oh I'm going to take over in these areas the more people feel uncomfortable in those areas though ironically the less the car is able to train itself in those areas but then again people don't want to actually crash right so anyway I'm going to show a clip which doesn't look very good there is context missing though substantial context missing from this clip when you see it uh and I think it's worth actually seeing another clip before this just to sort of a preview and and my response to uh Omar on uh Twitter he's always posting uh excellent commentary on uh on Tesla and uh that was right here he says yesterday I had to take over to prevent my Tesla from running a red light due to a weirdly angled traffic light it responded to the wrong light basically over here on the right the light turns green and the car starts moving uh for uh Omar's interaction there it is right here but he's actually got uh a red there it is this one versus this one uh anyway I commented right here I said humans make this mistake daily ever sit in a left turn excuse me ever sit in a left turn and see the right slash straight Lanes hit the gas when the left turns green if you're a driver you know that feeling you've probably done it yourself because humans do that all the time and so what I wrote is FSD will eventually not make that mistake but humans will always make that mistake that's why full self-driving is seen as at least two and a half if not ten times as safe as a human driver without any Adas so with that said and with the prefaces out of the way uh and yes you can't remove all of your biases everybody knows that everybody knows I'm a Tesla investor uh Tesla's uh you know it's it's in my fund it's exposed personally in all of that right but I always like to look at things objectively and I have to say when I first watched this video I was very disappointed but I'll show some context afterwards so let's go ahead and start well we're not really starting anymore but let's get into the actual clippity doodly here no she's not a real deadhead she's never seen the Dead all right here we go we're gonna get killed by this guy it's on FSD now in real life I would not wait for this all right I disengaged yeah Ross took over that it hesitated then it decided to go buy it and then it was like no this is a problem but um oh there we go that was you breaking I break uh I wasn't gonna wait and find out because I saw the two cars going at each other so I wasn't gonna test that one okay so that was obviously not a very good look now we can break this down right here there's been a lot of speculation around this before Oh my gosh I'm sorry before we break this down you need to see context the context that was very very important that is highly missing from this video highly missing for this video and you should not go a second further without this context is this look at where the stop sign is actually positioned the stop sign is actually positioned about 20 feet at least a car length if not 25 feet from the stop line the problem with this and I will tell you in these old neighborhoods especially in Santa Barbara this is a problem the problem with this is I'm going to use this star to simulate uh a driver okay uh coming from the other side a normal driver a normal driver sees nobody at the stop line which is right here right and what does a normal driver do they cut that line everyone cuts the freaking line on a left turn that's humans everybody does that I'm not making excuses just saying that's what humans do you're supposed to drive out and then make your left but people don't do that okay people don't do this because it takes more effort they're just going to eat okay so understanding that about humans is very important one two understanding the distance of this stop sign from the actual stop line very important next what else is very important to understand after uh uh we pass this this vehicle here uh that uh Ross dodged after we passed this vehicle you could see Ross takeover and then he adjusts the wheel right here by scrolling up this is a way of telling the car to go faster right and Ross doesn't live in this area so he doesn't know about this stop sign coming up Dan probably does there you go you can see autopilot getting engaged and uh the car set it looks like it's set to a little bit faster than where we're going now yep yep yep yep in fact if you look very closely right here you can see the 38 then you'll see Ross's thumb roll up pushes it to 40.
the number on the right of the actual speed limit is or the speed the car is going is the top speed you're trying to set the car at so you can see it got set to 40. he let's go that leads the car to accelerate what frustrated me is that the car should not be accelerating here this was a problem for Tesla I did not like this when I saw it even before the stop sign I looked at this and I said no no no no no the car should not be accelerating here the car does this it happens sometimes and I admit that as an FSD driver I am acutely aware of that and I am acutely aware that in Curves in turns Tesla will often turn late in certain areas now don't take that out of context it will not always turn late often in certain areas it will just repeatedly make the same mistake right and it gets better and better and better I'll give you an example there's a lemon Factory and then a railroad track and then a sharp turn the recommended speed limit for that turn is 30 miles an hour three years ago my car would take that at 55 and then not until after the turn and it was like basically out of its Lane realize it screwed up today it slows to about 42 doesn't leave the lane anymore that's pretty much more clear that's a lot closer to a human driver I'd probably take that turn in about 38.
so it's still a little on edge but it's gotten substantially better so if 38 is ideal it used to do 50 and now it's at 42. it's getting better but if this stuff takes time right obviously it takes time but I will say when I first watched this video I cringed because I'm like no the car should not be accelerating here and this is not in my opinion and I don't know but there are a lot of people speculating on the internet that are saying oh well Ross's foot is on the gas pedal uh and they're taking screenshots of Ross's foot or whatever I don't believe that uh I believe that not to say that he's accelerating uh I believe that to say that a lot of FSD drivers leave their foot where the car is acting so if the car is driving you hover your foot over the gas the reason people do that is a lot of people put their feet just flat on the floor but that's not in my opinion as deal because it actually slows your reaction speed to get to the break I mean just imagine it for a second wheel if your foot's hovering over the gas it's a lot easier for you to step on the brake and move over because you don't have to lift your foot and then hit the brake you just move over and step right it's like it's one motion as opposed to two motions well think about it a stomp is like a lift and a step whereas the the move over and break is kind of like one Fell Swoop right so a lot of FSD drivers actually do hover their feet over whatever the action of the vehicle is or is supposed to be at that time so like if I'm coming up to or red light I take my foot off the gas I hover it over the brake so that way if the car were to screw up or whatever I break the point you're still paying attention to some extent right uh it takes the whole point of FSD at least at this point in my opinion with how few disengagement it has now disengagements it has now the whole point is to take some a lot of that stress off of driving and really to be an assistant to be a partner uh to your driving eventually it'll just completely take over uh and to many regards it already has but anyway then uh so I don't I don't think Ross is hitting the gas here this is the car accelerating so you see this right here going from 33 and up this is the car accelerating now Ross actually and this in my opinion is why Ross is not accelerating is he feels the car is going fast he feels the car going fast here he knows he's coming up on a stop sign and the car is accelerating watch Ross scroll down on this wheel you're actually going to see that 40 the limit for the car go down to about 38.37 there's the scroll down takes it he actually takes it down to about 35.
now we see the stop side and you'll see Ross grabbed the wheel a little more firmly there with his right hand where whereas previously he wasn't holding now he's like uh oh I might have to take over I'm gonna hold the wheel here keep in mind there's the stop line about 25 feet after the stop sign now remember what I said about when people turn they cut that line I promise you this car is cutting that line at least from what I see that car is positioned almost perfectly to cut right over that s and the T of this now it's hard to tell perfectly but that car is not expecting a car to be at the stop line if if Ross were at that stop line that car uh would have come out straight much more than it did look at the gap between this vehicle and this vehicle these vehicles see where this car stopped on the other side right see the car on the far side stopped right these cars should have virtually no gap between them there is there's almost enough of a gap between those cars that you could fit a third car in between those two left turning cars and to picture that for a moment on a narrow intersection like this there should be no Gap because everybody should be taking the turn appropriately let me draw that for you really quickly so if I draw the intersection like this oh my gosh this reminds me of police explorer days um if we're gonna go from uh this Lane and there's assuming there's a car at the stop sign we actually make the correct bow let's use Aura purple here we should be having some kind of turn like this and then you should be able to have another car at the same time do some kind of turn like this right there shouldn't be much of a gap uh between those two vehicles right here this shouldn't be much of a gap but because that white SUV took more of a this approach and then you kind of see them like course correct here because they see Ross come up you actually get this this look look at this they turned more and then they kind of straighten early and actually turn their wheels to the right see Wheels turned left turn their wheels to the to the right a little bit to avoid Ross because they were cutting them off worth noting now am I oh oh sorry I uh was supposed to switch back here yeah yeah look look at the wheels turn here with the wheels are ready to cut the the line off and then you could see the car's Wheels turn somewhat to the right and straightened out there so is this an excuse for FSD no FSD screwed up it went to that stop sign too fast absolutely a screw-up it should not have approached the stop sign that quickly absolutely not I can't forgive what the FSD did there even though that stop line is 25 feet behind that stop sign that was a mistake the car went too fast I believe it would have stopped but I would have taken over as well so fair takeover the car was going too fast Ross realized it as well that's why he scrolled the wheel back and slowed down but unfortunately the Optics of this the Optics of that clip do not show you all of the context now we need to get into Morgan Stanley we need to get into the Goldman Sachs uh um uh downgrades but but first uh It's Quickly worth looking at some of the drama Ross says I will ask you nicely once to remove and discontinue false advertising that includes my image and likeness without my permission thanks real Dano Dodd Daniel Dodge should have gotten a release signed by Ross before uh uh before putting this out there but uh anyway so um Dano Dodd replies then what will you do ask me not nicely or will you demand a cage match anyway Daniel Dot's going off on Twitter uh he's you know screaming this video confirms Tesla full self-driving runs a stop sign your quick reaction saved us remember the problem with the stop sign is the stop line is not visible in the video uh and so it's a great opportunity for everybody to sort of bag on on Tesla here uh and it's unfortunately for Ross making the mainstream news uh I think the Daily Mail was covering this uh with FSD uh and and some other mainstream agencies news agencies were uh blaming this this you know FSD failure or whatever so expect more drama about this uh again uh with context I think it's a little bit more understanding but I personally think the card which is going too fast uh that's my take so um so what else do we have here uh Steve Steve no no like and then I want to get into this this commentary here specifically about the the downgrades but no Steve of course you're going to course correct slightly into the right but the point is they they would have it's not like they swerve to the right you know they they were cutting off that stops I don't think there's a question they didn't see a vehicle there so of course they didn't leave enough room that SUV I'm not saying the SUVs at fault here I'm just saying it was a contributor to why the video looked the way it did uh that's it uh the Tesla does not acknowledge where the stop sign is and you have to know that about the software for example say somebody here says when Tesla passed the stop sign uh stop sign ahead it should have slowed down I agree with you I don't actually think it it fully pays attention to the signs as much as it should just like it doesn't pay attention to the recommended speed in a turn slides uh uh at least I don't think it does not my experience um so I agree with you but Teslas are looking for the Stop line and that's that's probably a problem and and I agree with you it was going too fast there so don't get me wrong I agree with you I agree with you that Tesla is going too fast and then I want to make that clear now let's get into some of these downgrades so uh last week we had a Morgan Stanley downgrade and uh going into today we are getting a uh Goldman Sachs downgrade let's start with Goldman Sachs g-sax g-sax right here is inviting you they're not but I'm pretending they are to check out the beautiful sexith an expiration of the sexy coupon code on Friday prices will be going up because I'm releasing more lectures this weekend and so we'll have a big coupon exploration again my goal is always to just continue rewarding uh the uh the here Tesla downgrade to neutral with stock now better reflecting on positive long-term View so usually what happens is these analysts frequently I shouldn't maybe say usually but frequently the stock goes up everybody upgrades the stock the stock starts ticking down they all downgrade to neutral stock goes down longer they all go bearish it seems like they follow price action I don't know if it's the chicken or the egg but let's look at what they're saying because it actually isn't that bearish we think the market is now giving the stock more credit for longer term opportunities uh we think there has been less price discounting from Tesla than investors feared for Q2 and vehicle inventory seem to be falling faster in Q2 than expected in fact I do want to say my Tesla referral code when you go to uh metcaven.com Tesla it's jumped like 20 it was like it was like 98 oh more than that it was like 98 and now it's at 127 Tesla referrals so I think I made like 30 Tesla referrals in the last I don't know 30 days it's kind of nuts I could buy some more Tesla short shorts or you could get like some Tesla models which check this out speaking of model I have not shown this off yet look what came in the mail I didn't pay for this uh I I would I bet this was expensive but um this was given to me by the person who sold me my plane and uh it's a really cool gift it is a uh custom uh model of the exact plane and the exact I can't really get my camera to focus on it exact plane and exact paint scheme of my plane how cool is that it's even got my future new tail number on it 69 for PP hey cool I love this thing my kids are like Daddy let me play with it I'm like no this is my toy plane mostly because Max tangent quick tangent Max takes the planes and he's like look daddy holy no uh anyway okay so where were we uh no we still expect pricing to decline in the second half of 2023 is supply and demand come into more of a balance uh it says Goldman Sachs but we are seeing more of an inventory cell through in Q2 and less pricing pain than we expected is uh what Goldman is suggesting here uh they do suggest that the charging Network and FSD will be limited near-term contributors to earnings per share but more long-term beneficiaries uh for the stock and they suggest that Tesla is well positioned for long-term growth I always think it's crazy that when you have these these companies these analysts are like oh this is a company that's that's positioned for long-term growth and then they downgrade the stock it's crazy uh anyway uh third generation platform oh right these are the next catalysts right so they touch on uh gen 3 your your uh 50 vehicle cost reduction trying to get to that 25 000 car the Cyber truck oh my gosh have you seen the Cyber truck uh videos that have been circulating if you haven't seen the Cyber truck videos you're about to see the Cyber truck videos because they're showing the Cyber truck with the freaking rear wheel rotating and I'm like I thought that was gonna be clickbait not only moves like 10 but this is like straight up warthog if anybody played Halo and I'm talking all the original I'm talking OG okay I'm like Halo one Combat Evolved baby the enemy has captured Captain keys and they're holding him important enemy girl whatever anyway the warthog's wheels turn in the back to help you make a turn and uh this was remarkable to me just watch the back wheel turn slightly as they make this tight turn it's like oh my gosh see the back wheels turning out as the front wheel is turning right to tighten the turn radius it's amazing amazing so uh anyway back to where we were uh Goldman Sachs EPS for this next cycle not good it's only a 275.
the market has Tesla at 350 right now uh and then you get to about roughly in line so these are in line this is very low very very low and they acknowledge that I mean they well they say slightly below I'm like uh no like 15 to 20 below it's not slightly in my opinion but whatever they believe that Q2 deliveries are doing well tracking uh for 445 to 450 uh the Tesla cars are awesome they have efficiency uh this this opening the charging network is just gonna actually help Tesla not only expand the pie of charging Revenue but create more charging stations they did say that part of the reason for their downgrade sorry uh was that AMD and Nvidia are now trading for 42 and 55 times uh the next 12 months earnings and Tesla's sitting at 93 times I think if you use the correct EPS it's not that bad but yes all of these companies have gotten significantly more expensive they were all under a 1.5 Peg when I bought the crap out of them at the end of last year now they're all above a two Peg again Peg is PE divided by growth anyway expected growth so what about Morgan Stanley well Morgan Stanley's got a piece too but Morgan Stanley's always got a piece um is that inappropriate anyway uh so I just need to find it oh oopsies I put it on my other iPad I have it I'll have it in just one second so oh here we go so the Morgan Stanley uh downgrade was a last week end of last week it's right here so they have a price target of 250 they are moving to an equal weight their bulk case is actually 450.
450 on the bull case 90 bucks for the bear case uh so then we have I did not see this 111 percent year-to-date rally coming it says Morgan Stanley uh while the team has defended Tesla as an overweight rating they didn't expect this we are not trying to call the end of the Tesla rally uh uh so in other words they're just trying to say like we're not trying to be the Bears here okay uh they actually call it a must-owned stock in any EV portfolio quite frankly I think it should be a must-stone stock in any portfolio let me be clear for The Regulators watching I respect you this is not personalized Financial advice this is this is bad Market commentary anyway um some investors may feel inclined to play the positive momentum we believe the stock upside from here must come uh despite our view of continued downside SKU uh uh basically they're saying look you've got you've got some near-term technical risks for the stock probably contributing to their their uh downgrade but longer term uh in their bullish scenario it's it's you have to you have to own it uh and of course they talk about uh you know TBD how the autonomous section of AI uh for Tesla FSD will play out but take a look at this this I thought was interesting despite the recent rally we expect material negative revisions for Tesla consensus earnings forecast and continue to expect a long-term trend of price decreases and average price declines at Tesla driven by intensifying competition with Chinese EV players and slowing Consumer Auto purchases so Goldman said this as well and what does Kevin say this isn't to say that Kevin knows everything I definitely don't I'm just saying I think Tesla will go free cash flow negative and might have to raise money okay I've said it before I'll say it again it doesn't make me a bear but I do think there's a there's a risk that there will be an offering uh of either shares convertibles uh some new debt financing they've got way too many gigafactories building at the same time right now with even more announcements coming uh I I you know you got the expansion of Nevada Northeast Mexico Berlin Texas it's um it's going to be very expensive anyway so they're questioning uh have we gone through the the worst of it for Tesla do we still have some potential headwinds I think we absolutely have headwinds I actually think though that those are the remaining headwinds so I I want to be clear if if Tesla is uh let's say um all right you ready for this um let's say over here this is like a a nasty swampy nasty mosquito-filled Marsh okay and uh and the Beautiful the beautiful Heavenly maiden and the sexy valley is over here this way in that direction over there you know we're probably we're probably like right there and uh and there's still a bog monster right here at the bog monster is like come into my pit uh so in other words you still have to get through this this short-term negativity uh which could be what I just said an offering negative free cash flow a margin decline uh these are all short term we know that Tesla is going to survive this obviously we highly expect that like we know that Tesla will make it here past the bog monster we know Tesla's going to make it there we just don't know what that this this transition is like is it like this is it like we're gonna skip over the bog monster we're gonna go through the bog monster or we're gonna get bogged and then come back who knows uh but but once once we get through that you know the light's already there it's just a matter of getting through that my take stay away from the bog monster don't yell at me if there's a short-term correction but of course if it rallies it was completely am I doing just like uh when we convinced Elon to advertise and started the longest Tesla rally ever patting myself on the back I did that I'm taking all credit for it screw you Okay so uh the rise of Chinese ovms uh look China's entire economy is slowing down so you know I do think there's a risk factor in China uh there there there's there's a real risk in China and Tesla does sell a lot of vehicles in China uh although uh we know that the Giga Shanghai is is a big export Market it'd still be nice to sell them locally uh it'll it'll keep margins propped up and so you do have some risks over here uh okay cool uh so what else we have here Tesla has been losing share in China since the peak of 2020.
I I I I I I oh losing share to who wait I'm sorry we have to fix the grammar losing share to whom uh and that would actually be yd remember folks okay if the answer is to him then it's whom if it is to he then it is who sorry uh anyway yeah I mean byd is is obviously your killer over there mostly because the hybrids are incredibly affordable uh byd's pure EV sales were declining relative to Tesla and q1 but their hybrids are just so affordable and with the crushed economy over there it it for some people just doesn't make the sense to make that leap to Pure EV right now we think that Tesla might have been caught up in the Ava AI multiple premium given the recent wave of Interest surrounding technology and excuse me where's the talk about Tesla being willing to advertise and that being the Catalyst what is this um this is like this is like chat GPT trying to convince uh me the other day that Chris Hanson was the person who convinced Elon Musk to advertise I I chatted back to it I'm like WTF Chris Hanson wasn't even there and it's like oh my apologies it was actually YouTuber Kevin pafrath oh my God anyway bear case here we've been we they include uh Tesla Mobility at zero dollars bear case is only 5.5 million units by 2030.
5.5 million units is like my expectation for like 2020 and a little earlier than that a few years earlier than that uh base case for them is actually 7.9 million units by 2030. and uh then then they actually give them 10 million units by uh 2030 on the bull case uh although you'll get some like Elon aiming for 20.
uh million units we shall see that cyber truck might be a big hit I'm excited about it I mean the more I see about the Cyber truck the more excited I get about it that's for sure so um yeah uh that uh that's what I've got for uh for the Tesla update uh I'm gonna go uh play with my pee pee now here I go look at that I'm gonna end up dropping it uh it'll shatter them actually I think this is made out of carbon fiber you know what else was made out of carbon fiber oh if you need life insurance just go to metcavin.com life where you can Apple pay and Android pay and sign up within as little as five minutes that's a paid promotion just like how I'm recording this video with stream yard met kevin.com stream yard you want 12 free stocks go to medkevan.com free officer free all paid promotions link down below
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