저자: Kevin · 외국인
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영국 중앙은행의 예상보다 높은 근원인플레이션 발표로 미국도 인플레 재가속 우려가 커졌고, 연준의 매파적 발언과 시장의 금리 인상 반영 확대로 주가가 조정받는 상황. 저자는 장기 약세 전환은 아니며 단기 변동성과 피보나치 되돌림을 예상. 소프트웨어 AI 기대는 과열 우려, 반도체는 상대적으로 긍정적이나 실적 확인 필요. 헤지 비용과 시장 협소성(상위 7개 종목 쏠림)도 지적.
다듬은 글
so why are markets falling well one of the big reasons today has to do with actually the bank of England so last week we saw the bank of England report a wonderfully juicy inflation data uh that came in substantially higher than expected the biggest problem with the bank of England was specifically that core inflation had risen substantially and unexpectedly it was already only moving up uh or sorry only trending down slowly which isn't great but the surprise move up is leading markets in even America to start questioning uh-oh is there a potential risk that we could see core inflation in the United States research and yes there is that risk so far there are not leading indicators of that in America but absolutely there is that risk the bank of England is is dealing with a lot more inflation across the board than what to America is with the inflation roughly twice what our inflation levels are but take a look at the chart here of core inflation and what you're going to find is this chart goes back just over 30 years and this chart really shows you how while we peaked out on core inflation and we started trending down on core inflation what ended up happening on the right side we got this explosion of core inflation again off to the right this led the bank of England to just raise rates to five percent their terminal uh sort of equivalent of the FED funds rate they move this up 50 basis points instead of the expected 25.
there was only a 30 expectation that the FED uh in England which is the Bank of England would raise rates 50 basis points we got 50. even with only a 30 basis point expectation here in America we would have probably gotten some kind of Nikki leaks a heads up warning about this uh however now what you're getting is an expectation that rates are going to go from five percent uh all the way up to potentially six or six and a quarter percent in England as they fight inflation that's substantially higher than ours consider their headline inflation rate is 8.7 and their core inflation rate which strips out the more volatile food and energies uh up at 7.1 percent kind of scary not something that the bank of England should look at likely lately now when you look at differences between the United States and the bank of England the bank of England's inflation expectation rates are also substantially higher than ours their inflation expectation rates while they've come down from about six and a quarter percent for forward-looking inflation expectations have only come down to just above 5.6 percent this isn't really enough to convince any kind of pause in England let alone write Cuts in fact you're going in the opposite direction in England and it's somewhat of a concern because again people in America are even wondering is there a risk that could happen here as well and yeah again absolutely the risk is that could happen in America and that is not something markets are pricing in remotely right now the largest risk we face in America right now seems to be that oh maybe rates will go up another quarter or two quarters so half a percentage point that isn't something that is even fully being priced in right now though of course yesterday we had a drum Powell who reiterated the summary of economic projections of the fomc meeting last week and unfortunately that was reiterating hawkishness whether that was through some form of pact with the Hawks over at the fed or Jerome Powell is one of the Hawks doesn't really matter dronepal reiterated eh if the economy keeps booming essentially the way it is we could be looking at one to two more raid hikes and this could be him keeping his optionality open or uh the economy is doing substantially better here than it is uh elsewhere it's also possible right now the Market's expectations of fed terminal rate are 5.29 which usually what you'll do is you'll look at the difference between where we are now five and the upper bound five and a quarter and you'll say okay well if we're going to be in that range we should be at some kind of terminal rate expectation of 5.125 we're sitting at 5.29 so that's really a way of the market telling you probably pricing in at least one more hike since we're at least half of that more than that 5.125 so at least one more uh priced in right now if we look at the world interest rate uh probability uh what we'll find is we're actually now getting a sort of newly molded shape of the curve that shows a terminal rate in America coming closer to November look at this so this chart keeps evolving it seems like on a weekly basis we get a new version of this chart a new manipulation of what what we should actually expect remember that if we go back to March we were expecting 175 basis points of cuts by the end of the year markets have completely removed that risk now what's really remarkable or I mean the benefit of a potential rate cut right it was removed by markets we're not expecting rate Cuts now until at least January at least according to the world interest rate probability chart here instead we're looking at this could potentially be a pause here in July followed by maybe a rate hike in September and November and potentially uh well I mean this is not necessarily to say that the FED would actually hike in November and then cut in December while it looks that way and it's definitely possible it's just a way of the markets assigning probability saying well we think we'll probably be at a 5.25 cap by December how we arrive there is is a little distorted by the the way these bar charts are created but anyway what's fascinating is as we moved from March to now here in you know June about what three months and a week after the banking crisis what we've actually seen happen is we've seen these terminal rate expectations move up and we've seen rate Cuts get unpriced and the market went basically straight up so why then is the market falling well I think it has a lot more to do with two real fears one fear being oh my gosh if core inflation can Skyrocket like it just did in England then maybe that could happen in America as well if that happens the fed's not going to be talking about one or two more rate hikes they're going to be talking about one or two more percentage points which basically would be four to eight more rate hikes if we had that sort of disanchoring of inflation here in America that is which we don't and again no leading indicators of that now but who knows maybe there were plenty of leading indicators as sort of a Black Swan in England as well although they're not as easy to identify even now more importantly is this fear of okay well if the Market's already run this much maybe now it's time to begin hedging and that is some of what uh talk you've seen over the last uh probably about 10 days really pick up a lot especially after last week's Opex and part of that could be contributing to some of the pullback that we're seeing now is that hey maybe now it's officially a good time to start hedging and uh stop contributing to sort of the bull run if you will take a look at uh What uh we had from this is from Goldman Sachs just uh Tuesday morning Tuesday morning before the red actually started coming into the market these kind of discussion pieces were starting to get more normal that is hey look there's a limit to how high we think the S P 500 can realistically go this year are we really going to hit all-time new highs by the end of the year it seems like uh seems a little bit of a like a stretch right and so Goldman Sachs gave the s p maybe another three percent run by the end of the year and while recent data is indicating that this inflation is underway maybe maybe we've over extended a little bit especially with uh forward EPs and price to earnings looking a little bit historically stretched for example if you break this down into five particular reasons uh you can see here positioning is no longer a Tailwind for the US this would be uh maybe not necessarily based on uh the the shares or the level of underweight or overweight people actually are but rather this positioning of hey um we're becoming bullish right it's the sentiment positioning and then you've got equities already pricing in optimistic economic growth that is definitely happening especially in the software space in my opinion where you're getting these these beliefs that artificial intelligence is going to lead to this massive amount of profit for software I I'm not convinced of that I I do think the chip investments will continue to do very very well but I'm not convinced of those software Investments Equity valuations elevated versus history In fairness this does compare to a trailing p e ratio though which generally isn't the best idea since of course we've had lower earnings over the last uh 12 months the narrow Market breadth or rally is is another way I mean the narrow Market rally is one way of saying breadth has been very very narrow that's basically in English hey man uh hook them out of the S P 500 there are only seven stocks that are basically carrying ninety percent of the returns so you're getting more of this concern that uh wait a minute uh we're starting to get a little crowded on the bowl side you know it was just what maybe Friday or so that I was making jokes about how uh you know it's starting to it's starting to feel like if the Bears are coming to flip over to the Bulls is it time to become a bear again now I I don't actually think it's time to uh be you know longer term bearish here uh but I would expect some form of short-term volatility much like what we've gotten honestly I expected this volatility a lot earlier so I was wrong about that I thought the volatility would have come much sooner than now as we've talked about regularly here at Nike Swoosh in a volatile format right a volatile Nike Swoosh now I'll show you where we sit with the with the TA right now a quick reminder June 30th write it down price is going up once again going through adding a bunch of value uh we're actually going through all of the old lectures and what we're doing is we're adding sort of spliced in lectures which is really cool about that we've done this in the past before and so you kind of get Kevin over the the time frames which is really neat because we can look at okay here's strategies that work in various different markets so it's really really neat and the new lectures are going to be really incredible so stay tuned for those those will be fun but anyway Let's uh and check those links out down below and of course email staff at meet kevin.com if you'd like to bundle up so look at the uh NASDAQ here the NASDAQ really got rejected in your 78 tier here by the on the Fibonacci levels this is probably quite frankly to be expected I mean first of all it's very very normal in this sort of space of the volatile Nike Swoosh for us to have a rejection on the fibs in fact we've basically always gone back to the prior FIB levels and with the exception of the bottom one here which I suppose you could argue we got rejected before we ever really broke out um consistently we got rejected so I suppose maybe not even without the without that uh exception as you can see we get rejected here what we try to break through three times couldn't hold it come back down to the lower FIB finally break through get rejected back down to the lower fit we break through we magnet to the bottom I like calling it the magnet we magnet to the lower FIB uh we don't actually break all the way through again which is nice uh but then once once we're done magneting we break through again and then we have this smaller pullback breakthrough smaller pullback breakthrough now now we're getting that rejection over here at 373 which honestly like if you just look at the year we've had so far even though it hasn't felt terribly volatile it's very very normal for you to get rejected on these technical levels I mean especially if you look at a stock like Tesla just from a technical basis this is let's just put it straight ridiculous and when we look at a trend we we are also getting actually you know what we could probably go let's see here let's let's do a quick Trend here let's grab here uh all right yeah there we go come on weebs oh you know when you do it on a on a MacBook it's kind of funny because it doesn't necessarily implicate all your pushes there we go oh look at this this is actually really interesting so if I draw somewhat of a lower support here and what I was grabbing is trying to get this trend right here this is a support this uh this trend that you had in March you're kind of getting rejected at exactly that level almost look at that you can't break through here and uh we're ending the days getting rejected by these average candlesticks obviously yesterday was red and today's Red so these candles will really start coming down uh on on this um uh average Candlestick view but but anyway this is this is reasonable you would expect some kind of retracement it's just not normal otherwise uh even uh in the software plays right you look at a C3 AI uh you're starting to get you know I mean yesterday you had a down 9.6 day so so some of this is is expected uh now uh with that said is is this like is it time to sell is it time to run away uh you know those questions have been coming up uh is it time to hedge I mean hedging for most I would say uh individual investors uh can and going into longer Bull Run periods be quite expensive if you're in an era like uh 2010 to 2020 quite frankly hedging's very very expensive because you're you're hedging maybe like an election or uh the European sovereign debt crisis or or these smaller events but it's really costing you uh returns over a longer period of time obviously we're just now coming out of the pain of 2022 and it's still questionable as to are we going to go into recession or not so of course there's more of a reason to potentially hedge now than there was uh during that decade of 2010 to 2012 2020.
that said has has anything fundamentally really changed no but that can also be said for the upside right I mean yeah we've been on more of a trend of disinflation wage growth is falling inflation expectations are stable to the low side there are 2.17 right now sure maybe we'll get another raid hike or two but really that bank of England shock is is creating a lot of fear right now that hey what if that could happen in America well then you would want to be aptly hedged if that could happen in America which obviously would be quite concerning to see inflation disancher the way it did in uh in England so that said we also haven't gotten earnings to really substantiate this artificial intelligence hope even for the chip sector as much as I'm bullish on the chip sector versus software it's worth considering these orders are going to take a long freaking time to come in uh and and to actually fulfill it's one thing to say hey we've got an artificial intelligence boom and and Intel's like yay we're going to spend 30 billion dollars in Germany and 25 billion dollars in Israel great but you have to also remember who's going to pay for that well the government might pay 30 to 40 percent of it but otherwise Intel has to pay for it out of well their cash flow and these are very very expensive much like with Tesla has said in the past I'll say it again Tesla might have to raise money because they are spending a lot and I don't I'm not convinced that they're going to be free cash flow positive uh going into this next quarter and so the next quarter's earnings are going to start becoming a catalyst for short-term trading and short-term hedging so I think when you put all of these pieces of the puzzle together uh we're not really concerned about okay is it another 25 or 50 maybe a little bit I think we're much more concerned about D anchored inflation we're much more concerned about uh maybe too much of a pull forward for this artificial intelligence productivity boom whether that's through chips or software or otherwise and concerned about this lack of breath this this shallowness that we've gotten in uh in the market as well as the fact that hey had retracements this could be another retracement so personally for me I look at this and I say as long as I'm not seeing fundamental red flags that we're getting a Paul volcker coming our way which to some extent maybe the bank of England is I'm not horribly concerned about writing a Fibonacci retracement here it's more of a okay let the retracement play out that probably becomes somewhat of a by the dip opportunity if you're optimistic on inflation and optimistic on our ability to avoid a recession obviously if you're pessimistic it's great because now you know this might give you an opportunity to profit a little bit on shorts or Hedges so those are those are my thoughts on basically exactly for this to really take through earnings to to play out which to some extent if you start getting retracement now maybe you sort of pre-punish Q2 earnings that's happened in previous Cycles before where the pain comes right before earnings and then all of a sudden companies report earnings and people like that's not that bad and then you get this sort of new energy uh into a rally and that could push potentially push you to the next level so again obviously who knows I mean we're trying to make educated guesses on what's happening but that's really what they are because that's the beauty about the stock market we don't have all the answer] foreign
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