저자: 염정인/박주환 · 한국인
요약 보기
레버리지 ETF는 일간 수익률을 추종하므로 변동성이 큰 장세에서 장기 복리 수익이 배수에 비례하지 않고 크게 훼손된다. 1배 기준 -10%/+10% 예시에서 1배는 -1%, 3배는 약 -9% 손실이 나는 식으로 설명. 반도체 3배 레버리지 ETF는 1년 수익이 1배 ETF(약 18%)보다 낮을 수 있음(예: 3배 음수 기록). 레버리지는 단기 추세 매매에 적합하고 장기 보유에는 부적합하다고 주장. 대안으로 반도체 설계·파운드리·메모리·장비 대표 기업에 투자하는 ACE 글로벌반도체TOP+ ETF를 소개. 연금은 장기투자가 중요해 레버리지 상품 사용을 제외하라고 조언.
다듬은 글
Looking at the comments, people say that long-term investment in leveraged ETFs is bad. Please tell me the exact reason. Especially now, Koreans use leverage a lot, you know. So, representative examples include Tiki Cupid or the well-known SXL. However, in the case of the stock, there are times when its long-term performance is surprisingly lower than even a semiconductor 1x leveraged ETF .
Hello. This is Yeom Jeong-in from ACF. yes . hello. This is Park Ju-hwan. Did you check all the comments just because you said you were checking them all? Ah, I'm making time to watch it whenever I can. Uh, were there any comments among them that stood out like this ? One of the questions investors ask most frequently is whether they should invest in leveraged ETFs for the long term anymore.
Perhaps because they had heard a lot about this, they did ask quite a few questions related to that . yes that's right. Looking at the comments, people say that long-term investment in leveraged ETFs is bad. Please tell me the exact reason . I don't really understand this. We have seen a few questions and comments like these.
So, I actually left a comment for the players under the comments while working overtime yesterday . We plan to cover this next time, so please keep it in mind . I left a bit of that here, so I think it would be good for us to talk a little about leverage today . Especially since people in our country use leverage a lot these days.
So, since you have invested heavily in products such as Tiki Queue, SUXL (known as SOSL), and even TMF, I think it would be good to give you some examples of these products . yes . I suppose it’s a widely accepted theory that everyone in Korea keeps a beast in their heart, and honestly, I’ve used that quite a bit myself.
yes . As you mentioned, since semiconductor stocks have been gaining some attention recently, it seems that those who want to invest in semiconductors but feel their "beast heart is too weak" for 1x leverage are also turning a lot of interest to the famous 3x leverage products . And now, instead of leveraged investment, it would be good to take another look at what alternative investments can be made.
To put it simply in principle, leveraged ETFs track the daily return by two or three times. Shall we look at the key points here? Wouldn't it be two or three times? Ajo. The key point here is that you follow it day by day. Many people assume that if you use triple leverage, the returns will triple proportionally over a year.
However, I would like to point out that because we close positions and lock in profits every single day, the returns do not follow that proportional pattern at all. The greater the volatility, the more likely cumulative returns are to drop, but since this is hard to grasp just by words, I would appreciate it if you could give me an example using numbers .
For example, let's assume you invested 10,000 won in a 1x ETF. Then, if it drops by 10% on the first day and rises by 10% on the second day, since it dropped by 10% on the first day, 10,000 won would become 9,000 won. And now, if it rises by another 10% on the second day, since 10% of 9,000 won is 900 won, it will become 9,900 won by the end of the second day .
So, after two days, a loss of about 100 won will occur . Now, on the other hand, let's assume you invested in a triple ETF. If you invested 10,000 won, on the first day it would be -30% and become 7,000 won . Now, on the second day, if it goes up by 10%, since the leverage is three times, it becomes 7,000 won + 30%, so it will end at 9,100 won with an additional 2,100 won.
So, if we compare these two days, the one-fold one will only result in a loss of 100 won, but the three- fold one will result in a loss of 900 won, so I think we can confirm that there is almost a one-fold difference. If the overall period is long and the market is consolidating, such losses can accumulate when using leverage.
Therefore, you should keep in mind that it is more advantageous to invest with leverage when the market is moving in a direction that is either completely downward or completely upward . Up and down, up and down—such obstacles actually eat up a lot . So, I actually looked up the "Sok" graph yesterday, which we have been talking about and which Koreans love so much .
The semiconductor industry has actually been really good over the past few years . However, in the case of the stock, there are times when its long-term performance is surprisingly lower than even a semiconductor 1x leveraged ETF . It's a bit shocking. In a way, it seems like the return on investment would naturally be better with Sebi, but if we look at the one-year return as of September 30th...
In fact, you can see that the one inside recorded a negative return, while the 1x one actually recorded a return of about 18%. So, since the amplitude is very large anyway, as a result, if the multiplier over the past period is 18%, then... if you multiply that by 3, and do 18 * 3, how much is it? It is 56.
Oh no. It is 46. Ah, it's 56. It's 56. yes. I think it will be around that much . no. Since this is tripled every single day rather than over a period of three, you might not achieve the rate of return you are expecting. And I think you can see through the graph that you could actually end up losing more money .
yes . As you mentioned, while there are many good companies in the semiconductor sector, the volatility is already high. Therefore, if you invest by tripling the amplitude every day like this, the volatility could act almost like a bomb . If you want to invest in short-term trends, leveraged projection is a good option.
However, I am telling you that the product is not very suitable for long-term use . However, despite that, there will be some people who say they want to achieve a slightly higher level of performance than just the standard level. In that case, instead of this leveraged investment, it would be good to choose a product that yields better returns over the long term.
Is there anything you would like to recommend regarding that ? Recently, many products that fully capture the growth of companies or sectors are being introduced, and we also have an ETF called Ace Global Semiconductor Topper Plus. So, I think it would be good to sweep through this and compare them to have a discussion .
Ah, Mr. President, you have just given us some great advice, but in reality, strategies that reflect the trends of the times will continue to change. However, there are many cases where a single good product incorporating that strategy generates significantly superior returns in the long run compared to leverage.
One of them is the product that former Deputy General Manager Park just mentioned . First of all, we have divided the semiconductor sector into four areas: design, foundry, memory, and semiconductor equipment. You can view this as an ETF that invests heavily in leading companies selected from each of these areas.
However, we did not simply choose companies based on their market capitalization weight; instead, we selected companies that can reflect the structural growth of the AI era. You can understand this product as a portfolio designed to fully capture the long-term growth structures of companies and sectors, rather than being swayed by volatility.
Actually, the rate of return over the past three years has been much better than the actual performance. In any case, since this product was designed to reflect as much as possible the structural nature of the semiconductor market, where only the top-tier companies are bound to succeed, if you view this market more favorably and wish to generate higher returns than the standard 1x leverage, I think it would be good to wrap up today by noting that there is also a way to choose a strategic product like this, rather than opting for 3x or 2x leverage .
You can view this as the difference between a triple ETF, which is highly volatile day by day, and a strategic ETF that tracks corporate earnings or structural growth. Those looking to time short-term gains might consider investing in this, while those with a long-term perspective who wish to fully capitalize on the growth of the AI or semiconductor industries might want to consider investing in our Global Semiconductor TAFO ETF mentioned earlier .
I recently made a leveraged investment in the U.S., and I heard the news that there is a 5-to-1 merger. So, regarding what this 5-to-1 merger means and why it is done, the reason for the merger is that, in fact, with 3x leverage, if it drops by more than 33%, the decline exceeds 100%. So, I think they probably did that as a means to prevent that, by merging them to prevent a significant number of them from being abolished.
Today, I shared a real-life example to explain why long-term investment in leveraged ETFs is risky, something many of you have been very curious about . And now, as a concrete alternative, I have briefly explained our strategic ETF, the Global Po ETF . yes . So, the Leverage product is n't actually a bad product.
It's just that the use is a bit different. Right ? Now, Manager, as you briefly mentioned earlier, you were upset that you can't do leveraged investments in the pension fund . That's right . Please forget about that. Since long-term investment is the number one virtue of pensions now, please forget about that for now.
yes . Actually, that is why I think using products at the right time or for the right purpose is really important. So, if you leave us with some questions next time, we will do our best to incorporate them into our explanations . I would appreciate it if you could triple the leverage for subscribing, liking, and turning on notifications . I will see you again next time. thank you yes . thank you TF
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