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ey and today we'll look at daily charts and try to answer the question can stocks go higher from here first up we'll first on spy we can see friday we were down 1.64 but we have been printing some very bullish looking candles on the daily chart even though we are getting rejected from this negatively sloping 50 ema we still do have price action that has been closing above the 20 simple moving average and our 20 simple moving average is starting to flatten out also keep in mind that the 5 ema and the 13 ema have been positively sloping and did cross over the 20 simple moving average so without a doubt the bears are losing that strong downtrend and the bulls are starting to gain some traction so when we try to answer the question whether or not spy can go higher from here we need to watch two very critical support levels that we're very close to and the first one will be at spy 408 as long as we're above spy 408 the bulls are still in full control because that was the breakout from the daily high and the bulls are holding that level as support as we can clearly see there are wicks below that level as buyers are stepping in and buying the dip below support now if we do see price action breaking through 408 that will be a win for the bears but the bulls will have one last support level that they will try to defend right around spy 402 if the bulls lose that support level the bears are going to try to drive spy all the way back down to retest the lows at 381 but the higher low situation for the bulls will be defending spy right around 393-394 so just to recap in a bullish scenario we need to see some type of pullback that makes a higher low which means the low needs to be higher than the previous low down here right around 389 or the daily low right around 381 and then the bulls need to drive price all the way back above the previous high wherever that ends up being so in this situation if this is going to be the pullback and we're getting a bullish scenario we'll see a higher low followed by a higher high which means we'll break out of the previous high which is currently spy 418.
now there's no guarantee this has to happen and that's why we wait for the price action to confirm it and in the bearish scenario we're going to slice right down through all of these support levels either retest the lows at 381 or make a brand new lowetz by 376 or 370 but i do not think it is time to see this price action i think we will see spy going to higher prices before we start to see any pullback remember the stock market doesn't care what i think so you still need to watch the price action at these levels so use spy 408 and 402 as your critical support and start getting a lot more cautious of a re-test of the 390s or 380s if we lose those support zones now the bullish breakout will be a close above the 50 ema and breaking out above 420 and then we will very likely see a test of this resistance level the bears are waiting out at 4 30 and i do think the bears are going to feast one final time even in the bullish scenario so in the bullish scenario if we got all the way up to spy 430 you're still going to get a very decent sized pullback from that level as the bears feast one final time and then if we are going back into a bull market we should see a very impulsive rally off of that low and then we can start rallying back up towards by 450 to 460 which will come in the later half of summer so keep in mind even in a bullish scenario you are looking for a very significant pullback from any of these resistance zones before we can say the bear trend is over so do not be getting overly bullish as we start climbing into these resistance zones either use it as an opportunity to lock in some profits or just get a little more neutral until we see that higher low then once we get the higher low and we start to see bullish price action then you can start getting a lot more bullish on this market but as i continue to tell you treat every rally as a counter trend rally in a bear market which means you should be expecting lower highs and lower lows until the bulls develop a bull trend on the nasdaq 100 triple queues on friday we were down 2.6 percent and the triple q's came right back to support at 306 which is going to be critical support for the bulls if the bulls are still out there buying the dip we should see the support level at 306 holding up for a retest of resistance at 318 and then above 318 you're looking for the bears hiding out at 3 30.
now if the bulls lose support at 306 they still have the gap though of support at 301 and our 20 simple moving average at 300 so those will be your critical support zones that the bulls need to defend if we lose that support we're likely coming down to re-test the low at 285 or make a brand new low at 276.8 or 269.5 so in the bullish scenario we'll get a higher low and we won't actually reach those downside price targets but you can't rule them out as long as we have this bear market with the bear trend until the bulls can prove it by forming a bull trend and making higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart so we'll know very soon and we know the critical price action levels to pay attention to so from here just let the price action do all the talking and make sure you're prepared for either scenario and you will do just fine in this market on the dow jones we were down just over one percent on friday and that dow jones is still looking relatively bullish as it starts to look like it's forming a bull flag just below the 50 ema and that critical resistance at 333 the next bullish breakout will be a break above 333 and then you're looking for a retest of the critical resistance at 340 and above 340 we should get rid of the bear trend and go back into a bull trend and very likely close that gap at 3 47.
so your two most critical resistance levels in the dow jones are at 333 and 340 with the very critical support levels to the downside at 326 and 322. as long as the bulls can hold this support there is the possibility of a higher low before a higher high otherwise if we break below 322 you're looking for a re-test of the lows at 310 and 308.
so watch these very critical support levels and let the price action tell you which scenario it favors and then just make sure your trade plan is structured around any scenario these are very clearly defined risk levels to either be a bullet support or be a bear at resistance and make sure you don't get chopped up and whip sawed in between critical levels on the russell 2000 iwm etf we were down 0.9 on friday and the small caps continue to look relatively stronger because we do have higher highs and higher lows you could very clearly see that the previous low around 170 did cultivate a higher low right around 175 and we did break out to a new daily high above 183 currently trading around 187 so the bulls are forming higher highs and higher lows on iwm so the next bullish breakout of confirmation will be the close above 191.5 and then we should see continuation of this bull trend don't expect the bears to just roll over and give up easily so watch for a strong stand from the bears right around the 190s and the critical support for the bulls to hold will be at 183 179 and the previous low at 175.
if the bears can drive price all the way down below 175 look for the gap close at 165.7 to be the next downside price target on the rk etf we were down 5.41 on friday but we still have price action closing above the 20 simple moving average but we are still in a very strong bear market another break below the 20 simple moving average should bring us down to re-test the low at 39 and then the previous low right around 37.
we still have a valid price target while we're in this bear market all the way down here at 33.7 with the next bullish breakout being a close back above 50 and then 52. do not get bullish on this etf until we start getting daily closes above 52 just trade it off of these levels or just ignore it until we get the bullish breakout on the vix we were up 0.36 percent on friday and we continue to see the vix making new lows right around this support zone at 24 to 25 and if we get the daily close below 24 that will be a bullish signal keep in mind the vix is at a relatively strong support zone so we could still see another spike in volatility from this support which could bring the vix all the way back up to the high 20s or possibly even 30 and we're very likely getting the continuation of the bear market with the next leg lower if we do see the vic spike above 30.
so know these critical levels and get a lot more bullish if the vix starts closing below 24 but be cautious at support while the vix could start seeing another spike and we could get more volatility in this market on bitcoin we're currently trading right around 30 000 and bitcoin is still holding up above this support zone right around 28 to 29 000 after we did get that very strong bullish impulse but we did find resistance right around 32 000 so the rejection from 32 000 sent us back down to support and if we lose the support zone right around 28 000 you're looking for a retest of the low at 25 000 and if we break below 25 000 we should see that support level once again at bitcoin levels of 20 000.
i don't expect bitcoin to break below 28 000 but remember the stock market does not care what i think so you still can't rule it out completely until we get the bullish breakout all the way back above 40 000. from here i continue to expect bitcoin to retest resistance at 37 000 so look for the next bullish breakout on a close above 32 000 and that should be a relatively quick trip to 37 000 once we get that bullish breakout on nvidia stock we were down 4.45 on friday and nvidia is still very likely trying to test resistance right around 200 or that critical resistance at 210 and we can see a lot of bullish price action lately with price action closing above the 5 ema and price action back over the 20 simple moving average which is now starting to flatten out it could be very possible that nvidia already saw the bottom off of this double bottom right around 161 and it's getting ready to go on a very strong rally which we will know on the bullish breakout above 210 that we're very likely coming up here to fill these gaps if we get rejected from 200 or 210 you're looking for the critical support level at 179 to hold up and if we break down below 179 we'll very likely come down to retest the low at 161.
on tesla stock we were down 9.22 on friday and it still looks like tesla needs to come down and retest the low at 620 or make a brand new low right around 571. we're back below the 20 simple moving average and we still do have a bear trend so you cannot get bullish on tesla until we get the bullish breakout above at least 828 and we're getting a lot more bullish if we can get back above 900.
so remember it's a downtrend until it's not and there's still valid downside price targets on tesla at 570 or a retest of low at 620 even though we still do have support at 700 that we need to pay attention to if we get a bounce off 700 and a bullish breakout above about 776 that will be a bullish breakout for a re-test of the 50 ema which is currently right around 8.28 so we'll be getting a lot more bullish if we can get back over that 50 ema but for the time being respect the downtrend and we could be heading back down towards 620.
on apple stock we were down 3.86 on friday and apple is very close to closing this gap right around 144 so that could be a support level that i would be paying attention to if we close the gap and continue lower you're looking for support right around 142 and if we break below all of that support in the 140s you're looking for a retest of the low at 137 or a brand new low with a price target down here at 130.
you can't rule out the possibility that this will be a higher low so the next bullish breakout and the bullish confirmation will be the close above 150 and then we should start trending up towards the 160s or that gap fill up there at 174. so as soon as apple starts closing above 150 that will be a lot more bullish but we can't just assume it's going to happen so wait for the price action to confirm it on the financial sector we were down 1.44 and the financial sector is getting rejected from our resistance trendline and the 50 ema and may be coming down here to close the gap or re-test support before the next bullish leg higher so watch the next bullish breakout on a breakout above the 50 ema the industrial sector was down 0.39 percent and we see the industrial sector getting very close to re-testing the 50 ema and it will be a bullish breakout if we do close above that level the healthcare sector was down 1.17 on friday coming back down to retest support at the 20 sample moving average so it will be bullish if we find buyers at that level and balance and breakout back over the 50 ema we will be looking for a bull trend the energy sector was up 1.32 percent and the next bullish breakout will be a close above 90.5 with the next valid price target all the way up there at 99.6 but that's not a valid price target until we get the bullish rake out so watch downside critical support right around 85 and as long as we're above 85 and we have the bull trend it's still possible the energy sector is trying to go higher so jumping back over the s p 500 know the bullish scenario and the bearish scenario very well at these very critical levels and then just let the price action do all of the talking and stay objective if you're patient and disciplined in the market and you're trading at these critical zones you should be doing just fine in all of this volatility we're very close to knowing if we're going down for another bearish leg lower or we're breaking the bear trend and going back into a temporary bull trend the price action will tell us everything we need to know from here so we just need to observe at these critical levels and have a trade plan to act accordingly also don't forget that i trade alerts chat ideas to you
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