저자: DickBove · 외국인
요약 보기
JP모건 3분기 실적은 매출 304억 달러, 주당순이익 3.74달러로 예상을 웃돌았지만 주가는 약 2.7% 하락했다. 실적의 상당 부분은 팬데믹 기간 쌓아둔 대손충당금 환입에 기댄 것이며, Bove는 이것이 영업이익 증가가 부진한 사실을 가리는 회계적 착시라고 본다. 투자자들이 이 점을 인식하면서 은행주 전반이 약세를 보였다. 제이미 다이먼은 인플레이션이 더 올라갈 것이라고 인정했지만 은행 실적에 대한 우려는 드러내지 않았다. 금리 인상은 대출 마진을 키워 은행에 유리하다는 해석이다. 다만 Bove는 은행들이 시장점유율을 비은행 금융과 자본시장 기업에 빼앗기고 있다고 지적했다. 개별 은행 평가에서 Bove는 뱅크오브아메리카를 가장 주목할 만하다고 꼽았다. 최근 몇 년간 점유율을 잃어 경영진 25명 이상을 교체했고, 성장 회복 여부가 관건이다. 웰스파고는 대출 수요 약화, 마진 압박, 벌금과 소송 문제가 남아 있지만 향후 수년간 미국 최강 은행 중 하나로 부상할 것으로 봤다. 씨티그룹은 중국 리스크 등 해외 영업 부담 때문에 가장 약한 은행으로 평가하며 회피 대상으로 꼽았다. 골드먼삭스와 모건스탠리는 M&A 사업 호조로 실적이 크게 나올 것이라며 매수를 권했다. 당일 씨티그룹은 약 0.5% 하락했고 금융주 대부분이 약세였다. 출연자 Bove는 M&A 호황과 은행 점유율 문제를 근거로 골드먼삭스·모건스탠리 매수, 씨티그룹 회피를 주장했다.
다듬은 글
even though jp morgan beat on earnings which were reported this morning the stock is falling down about 2.7 percent yes they exceeded expectations big banks begin reporting third quarter results but the markets just don't love how they beat expectations okay so here's what happened jp morgan reporting 30.44 billion dollars in revenue 3.74 cents per share in eps and in essence a lot of the profits were propelled in great part by the release of reserves that had been put aside during the pandemic ceo jamie dimon got on the conference call sounded a very optimistic tone that the economy is still on a positive post pandemic trajectory i think we should look at the big picture here which i think is always important i mean two years ago we were facing covid virtually a great depression global pandemic and that's all in the back mirror which is good so by hopefully a year from now be no supply chain problem okay hopefully but guess what jamie dimon also said dick beauvais that he says inflation is definitely going higher although he's not worried about it for the bank let's get to you and what you saw in the bank's quarterly release numbers and we've got a whole bunch of other names too dick bovey of course with odeon capital thank you so much for being here so let's tackle jp morgan first dick okay basically uh what you said is exactly correct all year banks have been having a great deal of difficulty in increasing their operating earnings but what they've been able to do to obscure that fact is continue to reduce their loan loss reserves now in the beginning of the year investors were accepting the fact that they were doing this and did not hit the stocks but now investors are saying oh wait a minute you know we've been nine months into this year and these companies can't increase their operating earnings if they can't do that and they continue to play accounting games how much how much can they be worth and i think that that's one of the key reasons that this uh you know jp morgan number frightened most people in addition jamie dimon frightened most people he said three things number one he wouldn't commit to the fact that inflation would be transitory number two he said the base case for the economy even though he said it's going to be higher is not going to be as high as it was a few months ago and number three uh perhaps the worst thing he said was that he's on a 10-year program to allow the bank to meet the competition in the marketplace and what banks have been dealing with all year is not the fact that there's excess liquidity in the economy but the fact is that they're losing market share they're losing market share to the capital markets companies and they're losing market share to non-bank financials and therefore what jamie dimon projected today was a little bit of fear as to which jp morgan is going to be over the next 12 months and that's resulted in the selling why isn't he fearing inflation he said yes it'll go higher but ostensibly as inflation goes higher maybe the fed starts to raise rates that helps bank earnings obviously because they can charge more for lending they make more revenue but he also said people are still going to open bank accounts they're still going to be fine with inflation at least for the banking sector let us spin it forward to tomorrow we are getting a whole host of names wells fargo we've got citigroup on deck which ones in this panoply of names do you feel will do well and what are you concerned about with some of the other names okay just going back to inflation for a second remember banks make a fortune in inflationary periods i mean in the 1870s banks benefited enormously from inflation because their unit volume goes up and their their margins go up but in terms of the companies coming out the the one that i'm going to be looking most closely at is bank of america bank of america has been losing market share on a consistent basis now for a few years and and bank of america as a result has changed or turned over 25 top executives in the company to get the bank back on on the pace of trying to increase its share growing its business so if they're able to do that i think bank of america could be an extremely interesting company uh wells fargo is in i think uh the same position as most of the other banks out there it's dealing with the fact that loan volume is weak margins are under pressure and it's still facing all of these problems with uh you know uh fines and and problems with litigation but i think wells fargo will emerge as one of the strongest banks in america over the next few years citigroup is an international player and i don't like international banking at the present moment china being one of the big reasons you know for that i think that citigroup uh is is the weakest of all of the banks that i just mentioned and therefore that's one that i would tend to stay away from city down about half a percent most of the financials are lower today give me a one line on goldman they're reporting friday i love it i mean you got to buy goldman you got to buy morgan stanley you know they're going to show big numbers and they're going to show big numbers because merger and acquisition business which is their most profitable business soared in the quarter uh some said well jp morgan had a tripling uh in in even smaller companies jeffrey's tripled its money from m a and these companies are the leaders in m a so you got to be buying goldman and you've got to be buying morgan stanley dick always a pleasure thank you so much for coming on
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