저자: LarryFink · 외국인
요약 보기
비트코인을 디지털 금 및 인플레이션·통화가치 하락 헤지 수단으로 재평가하며 장기 투자 가치를 언급. 미국 재정적자 확대(36조달러)와 성장률 3% 달성 필요성, 사적 자본 활성화 필요성 강조. 자막 기준 가격 방향 예측은 명시되지 않음.
다듬은 글
There's a lot of legitimacy with Bitcoin. You own Bitcoin because you're frightened of your security in your country. You own Bitcoin because you're frightened of the debasement of your currency. I was on a panel in Washington with Jamie Diamond and I piled on and said Bitcoin is the currency for money launderers and thieves.
So, I did say that in 2017. I actually went on a journey and I talked to a lot of people who were true believers and I became a believer, you know, not like it's going to be a currency, but I believe that there's a role for it like like digital gold. Most of Black Rockck's business is based on long- termism.
And I always raise a question, why would anybody invest in a 20 or 30 year outcome unless you're you believe the 20 or 30 year outcome is going to be good? Because if you didn't believe in the over a 20 30 year horizon that you're going to that those long-term investments would be better, you would keep all your money in a bank account or in a mattress.
The CEO of Black Rockck, Larry Frink, shares his prediction for Bitcoin and crypto investors in 2025 and why there's a tsunami of capital about to pour into the crypto market. He highlights the role of Bitcoin as a digital alternative to gold, serving as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation.
Frink emphasizes that Bitcoin is not tied to any specific currency, making it an international asset that investors need. Think emphasizes their Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs and believes that Black Rockck's track record speaks for itself, demonstrating the company's dedication to responsible and long-term investment strategies.
Vin sees the digitization of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency as a force that can revolutionize finance and democratize investment by tokenizing assets and securities including Bitcoin. He believes that the cost of investing can be significantly reduced, making it more accessible for a broader range of investors.
Let's get right into the latest interview with Larry Frink as he gives his prediction for Bitcoin and cryptocurrency in 2025. You have the whole intersection of crypto and what role can bitcoin play but it's attainable if we unlock private capital. Yeah. What what we cannot rely on federal spending as much and that's the irony.
If we unlock private capital when the you know we have 12 trillion dollars sitting in money market funds. If we unlocked um private capital and we and we lifted the uncertainty to have more certainty of where we're going, I I think there's some great opportunities for investors long-term, great opportunities to invest in America, to build America.
Um, but if we if we don't unlock private capital, if we don't allow a streamlining of permitting so we have better understanding of the length of time it takes to put the shovel in the ground and building things. Um, if we don't start focusing on more public private types of financing vehicles, we're not going to grow at 3%.
Flat out we're not going to grow at 3%. And the last thing I would just say talking about the deficits, we will never grow out of our deficit problem if we think we have to cut spending. The the reality is we we need to unlock uh growth opportunities. Uh because as you said, Greg, the interest payments of our deficits are just going to be overwhelming.
And we've we've been cutting back entitlements already. Um and so these are some of the big big fiscal issues that we're facing and um we need to have that conversation. I I I think we're not taking advantage of all the private capital. If we get more savers and this is true for Europe, for Japan, for all parts of the world, if we get more savers investing in the growth of their economy, their country, you know, to me,
this is your drop in piece. This is what you're saying in the you know, I believe when you keep your money u in a deposit or in a the bond market, you're a creditor. We need we need our savers to be long-term believers in our economy, in our great companies. We need to show them why the compounding of return is so beneficial for them and the outcome over a long period of time.
Let's be clear, over the last 40 years, pessimism has not worked. And we're right with pessimism right now. And I don't think there's any any changes. Over a short period of times, pessimism may work in in a substantial way, but over a long cycle, if you if you believe in the entrepreneurialism of this country, which I do, the fundamentals of our educational system, um, we're the model of the world.
And in I had a conversation with a with a leader of another country last night. Um, and we talked about what differentiates the United States from Europe and other places is our capital markets. And more and more countries are trying to emulate even capital. Well, the Europeans must do it. And if the Europeans don't create a a more solid banking union and a more solid uh um capital markets union, the enthusiasm that we are seeing in Europe is probably going to be um misguided.
I I had a I I had a trip to um to my European offices a few weeks back and quite frankly, the Europeans were quite frightened. They were frightened of, you know, their partners, the United States, and where this may go. But what I was probably the most surprised, they were frightened because we're a US-based company.
That is Black Rockck changing, too? And I said, we're not we we are going to be the same firm yet we were 37 years ago that we were going to be in the next five years. And it was just a a wakeup call even for me, and I think I'm pretty well experienced in this stuff. Again, when there's great moments of uncertainty, even your top leaders need to be led.
They need to be they need to be conf you know, you need to confirm who you are and what are the what are the responsibilities of us as an organization. And that's just a wakeup call. There's our views that economic activity was going to be driven more and more through the capital markets, less through banking system.
And if you think about our growth, our growth was really a function of the growth of the capital markets um and the globalization of of markets. Um and through that fundamental backdrop, we we believed in each and every country as they grow their capital markets um then we could play that role and I think we we got that that trend as well as any organization in the world.
And then it was augmented then after the great financial crisis when regulators worldwide uh elevated bank capital uh u and required banks to have 20 25% more capital which meant banks were inhibited by 20 25% in lending. hink , reassures it's the fastest pace of adoption . But also I I I believe there if you look at the fundamental growth trajectory of different parts of the world and if you just looked at the growth of Europe versus the growth of the United States post financial crisis the US uh GDP grew 7 to 9/10% compounded over 15 years more than Europe and I believe today the fundamental problem with Europe was they did not grow their capital markets.
At the same time, capital standards were lifted in Europe and they had no source of new capital similar to the United States. They had to shrink their balance sheets or or grow or grow their capital base. And if you think about the growth of private credit that was stimulated basically by the rising capital standards of the banking system.
The two major issues economic issues that are facing the United States um are two issues that we don't talk about at all and maybe there's a little bit right now. One is the deficits and two the fear of retirement by so many Americans. Um, and to me getting back to my optimism, I'm optimistic generally over over long cycles because we solve problems.
You cannot solve problems if you don't have a conversation. And the issue of fear of retirement and our growing deficits are the two most consequential issues that we don't talk about. I was in Washington yesterday and I saw many members of Congress and deficits are not truly a part of the conversation.
So let's even after the I mean Musk is tweeting. Yeah. I mean so it's been elevated a little bit but let's set the context. After 223 years of being a a nation in 2000 the deficits in the United States were $8 trillion. took 223 years to create a$8 trillion deficit. And in the last 25 years, both parties are guilty of this.
Our deficits are now at 36 trillion. And now we have a pending tax bill that's going to add 2.3 2.4 trillion on the back of that. To me, this is if and I if we don't find a way to grow at 3% a year, real growth, real growth at 3% a year that we're going to hit the wall. This is why I I've been writing about we need to unlock more private capital.
This is getting back to the capital markets. This is another way of helping retirement. We need to unlock private capital in this country. Um we need to be streamlining uh permitting. We need to be focused on rebuilding our infrastructure. So despite all this pessimism, I mean the the foundation of growth is there.
We just need to unlock it. And if we can unlock that growth, I'm not as p pessimistic about the deficits. But if we cannot unlock the growth, and if we're going to continue to stumble along at a 2% economy, the deficits are going to overwhelm this country. And importantly, 25% of the US Treasury market is owned by foreigners.
That's not a good situation when we are now battling many countries related to tariffs and um and and and and so you're starting to begin to see a weakening of the dollar. There is uh there are some big questions on the vitality of the United States. I think long term that that'll be proven wrong. Frink recognizes the current challenges associated with Bitcoin, such as the bid, ask, spread, and transaction costs.
He hopes that regulators will view ETF filings as an opportunity to address these challenges and create a more affordable and democratized crypto market. Think also highlights the potential of blockchain technology to streamline transaction processes and reduce the need for intermediaries in the financial ecosystem.
His perspective on Bitcoin and Black Rockck's involvement underscores the firm's belief in the digitization of assets and the transformative potential of cryptocurrencies. While regulatory considerations and challenges exist, BlackRock remains committed to providing investors with innovative investment opportunities and driving the adoption of digital assets within a regulated framework.
What are your thoughts on Larry Frink's opinion regarding Bitcoin? And how will Black Rockck's approval completely change the crypto landscape? Let us know in the comments ]
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