저자: TomLee · 외국인
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스테이블코인과 SEC의 프로젝트 크립토 등 규제 우호로 암호화폐가 월가 인프라에 편입되며 새로운 강세장 진입. 이더리움 트레저리 기업(BitMine)의 주당 ETH 보유량 급증을 근거로 이더리움 강세 주장. 이더리움 연말 목표 1만~1.2만 달러(단기 5,500 언급), 연준 금리인하·ISM 반등 시 S&P500 6,800 목표. 9월은 조정 가능성 있으나 매수 기회로 봄.
다듬은 글
Crypto is no longer considered an enemy or a disruptor of the financial system, but really part of how the financial system, US financial system will get leadership. And it starts with stable coins and the genius act. And stable coins have been the breakout product. you the chat GBT moment. But now with the SEC's project crypto, it really is the SEC wanting Wall Street to use the blockchain to actually make America more innovative and actually spread America's financial influence around the world.
That's why institutions bought Micro Strategy. It's their way to get Bitcoin exposure. what's very evident the project crypto and the genius act and of course the growth of stable coins and and why that this is both good policy for America but also it's a you know huge opportunity and that's why Bitcoin is the play it's actually a bigger play to play the infrastructure side of it and that's what Ethereum represents it represents the future place where Wall Street is building but really in the minds of the institutions it's a new bull market.
A new bull market is here and investors are eagerly anticipating September's price increase, as well as Bitcoin and crypto holders seeing clear signs now of a market rally. Tom Lee predicts not only new all-time highs, but a parabolic rise in the last part . Many experts say $5,000 isn't just possible, it's realistic, especially since Ethereum already brushed 4,000 last December.
The renewed momentum isn't just hype. Onchain data shows transaction volumes and active addresses hitting all-time highs. Developers are pushing network upgrades. . Differing from Bitcoin, Ethereum offers something regulators actually want to harness. Smart contracts that power decentralized applications and digital finance ecosystems.
in a recent interview on crypto, ; Someone can buy Ethereum, okay? But if you buy a a proper crypto treasury, that company or entity is growing. your holdings of Ethereum for you actively. And I just give you an example. When Bidmine started on June uh it was started on June 30th, but the transaction closed July 8th, so not even two months ago, there was only $4 worth of Ethereum held per share.
And so you could have bought an ETF um back then for $4 uh worth of ETH. But as we as you're pulling up here, as of August 24th, we now have $39.84 worth of Ethereum held per share. So compared to July 8th when it was four, it's gone up by 10 times in 7 weeks. Ethereum has only grown gone up by 50%.
So the reason we had a 10x in your holdings is because Bitmine is actively ma managing to grow your Ethereum held per share by using capital markets and attracting the interest of institutional investors. Institutional investors can't in their funds can't buy Ethereum directly. They need to find a way to get exposure to Ethereum and they do it through public companies.
That's why institutions bought Micro Strategy. It's their way to get Bitcoin exposure. Ethereum is going to capture so much of that value and we did we're citing some work from Mosaics and from Fundstrap. But if you just think about it as payment rails moving on to onto Ethereum and some of the banking, you get to a network value of $60,000 value per ETH.
So that's why we think it's one of the biggest macro trades over the next 10 to 15 years. But the reason we're attracting so much interest um because we become the largest and we're raising uh you know more than a billion per week is because we are growing that institutions holdings of Ethereum per share.
So they know that as a treasury that's the the importance that an Ethereum treasury company has to be using capital markets and really good you know smart ways to acquire Ethereum um to actually grow the Ethereum health per share and and as your press release that you highlighted from just a month ago we went from 20 3 2284 in ETH on July 27th to just a month later 39.84 worth of ETH per share.
ETH did not double in price. it's only gone up I think 15%. So that doubling of Ethereum held per share is really because of our active strategy of acquiring more cash held Ethereum token per share. So uh with the $9 billion worth of ETH held today that's about almost $300 million of net income um for Bitine.
So Bitine is generating GAAP net income uh pre-tax net income. But there's something else that's called the power law. And the power law is the idea that the larger someone is and part of an interconnected network, the greater their influence. And the third thing of course to keep in mind is that Ethereum is still generally not liked by institutions because most most have bet on Bitcoin.
So they're suddenly saying, I I don't really understand why we should be caring about Ethereum. As you know, this is why Ethereum is probably falling into that the most hated rally because year to date, Ethereum's up 35%. It's outperforming Bitcoin's 17% gain, but most institutions have zero exposure.
That's why Kathy Woods says Ethereum, she thinks, is the institutional blockchain, but nobody really owns Ethereum except really the retail investor. And of course, now Bit. Yeah. And it's funny because we've seen Ethereum drop over the past couple of days, but when I look at the ETF inflows, I saw $500 million, $443 million to be exact of net inflows from the black rocks, the fidelities of the world.
So it is quite interesting the algos that are part of the crypto ecosystem. Obviously those algos can go up or down, but uh there is a bid that is being put on this asset class. a a a proper Ethereum treasury raising capital actually is anti-dilutive because the ones that are executing it properly can grow your Ethereum held per share.
If your Ethereum held per share is going up, none of the capital markets is dilution, right? That's that's what I think fundamentally uh people need to understand the model. Now, if Bitmine was trading at or below its Ethereum holdings, they that that should not be a time to be raising capital because that's diluted.
There is, you know, zero intention for Bitmine to ever dilute its holders. And actually, I think it's been proven because again, on July 8th, there was $4 of Ethereum health per share. And today, 7 weeks later, there is $40 of Ethereum health per share. So, a shareholder on July 8th, if they looked at their forward multiple, they paid $4.50 for the stock when in just 8 weeks, there would be $40 of Ethereum held per share.
&; Price targets for end of year for Ethereum and the S&P 500 and your logic for those two. Yeah. Um, I think Ethereum, you know, in the, uh, in the near term, uh, you know, 5,500 should be happening in the next couple weeks, but by by the end of the year, I think it should be closer to 10 to 12,000 for ETH.
Uh, but it's because, you know, most of the move in crypto does come in the fourth quarter. So, if you're up 35% year to date, well, if you're going to be up 200%, it's going to all happen in the next few months. Um, and for the S&P, uh, if if the Fed follows through and begins to cut, which is our expectation, and the ISM turning up, and therefore financials really begin to participate, I think that's why we get to 6,800 or so on the S&P.
So, still a lot of upside. So, still a lot of upside. Of course, as you know, September is the month everyone's going to be worried about. So, that's the month where you might get a pullback, but you you need to be buying that tip. And you know, as you know, every pullback, everyone has been ringing the bell, saying it's the top that has h that has always been a dip buying opportunity since 2022.
So I I just say keep that in mind that you really should be buying a dip. We also have not seen the positive benefits of two things yet. A doubbish Fed because the Fed has been on hold and so you you know, you're not really in a bull market if the Fed's on hold. And second is that the ISM, which is really a broad measure of economic activity, that's been below 50 for almost 30 months now.
And so you you don't really say you're truly in expansion till that's above 50. So once that turns above 50, and that'll happen hopefully shortly after the Fed starts cutting again, then you have not only a manufacturing recovery happening, you know, and especially with onshoring, etc. And then plus the AI tailwind, we also have not seen the positive benefits of two things yet.
A dobbish Fed because the Fed has been on hold and so you you know you're not really in a bull market if the Fed's on hold. And second is that the ISM, which is really a broad measure of economic activity that's been below 50 for almost 30 months now. And so you you don't really say you're truly in expansion until that's above 50.
So once that turns above 50 and that'll happen hopefully shortly after the Fed starts cutting again then you have not only a manufacturing recovery happening you know and especially with onshoring etc and then plus the AI tailwind. So actually there is a whole series of things that create a bull market.
And look, I know it's a continuum for people because a lot of people are saying, well, I've already been making money in stocks. Why is it a new bull market? But really, in the minds of the institutions, it's a new bull market. I still do Zooms and meetings with institutional investors where they think that this is just simply bubble talk that stocks have recovered on vapors because in their mind central bank liquidity is required to justify a stock move and the Fed has been on hold since all of 2025.
Right? So we're at least 9 months in and um and there is no central bank balance sheet expansion either. So in their minds then it's just simply someone who isn't grounded in understanding the Fed drives everything buying stocks. I think that that's kind of the overlying thesis for many people who do macro.
But of course 2025 has proven that that's not the correct thesis. I think what this year has proven is you you know one needs to really look at what are the stocks that are important to the economy and AI has done fine. AI hasn't cared about tariffs or inflation and the required infrastructure investment has been very powerful and that's what's why the stock market's recovering. But the rest of the economy is doing fine too. &.
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