저자: TomLee · 외국인
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Fed 금리 인하 가능성과 정책 안정이 기대되며 주식(S&P500 등 equal weight 포함) 상승 여지가 크다고 봄. 이더리움이 스테이블코인·월가 블록체인 이용 확대로 수요가 늘어 비트코인 대비 상대 규모가 커지고, 이더리움 네트워크 가치가 비트코인을 뒤집을 확률이 높다고 주장. 비트코인은 장기적으로 100만 달러까지 갈 것으로 봄. ISM 제조업 50 미만 지속은 인플레이션 우려 때문이며 향후 반등 가능성을 제시.
다듬은 글
Is the supply contracting or not yet? It's actually growing about 1%. Growing 1% slower than Bitcoin's inflation rate. Okay. It's actually a third of Bitcoin's inflation rate. We've got Powell at Jackson Hole. I I mean the market's pricing in two cuts between now and your end. I would say to me two cuts makes sense.
If the Fed realizes real interest rates are too high, I'm just a fan of an independent Fed. I'd, you know, let the Fed do their job. We know crypto is a generational divide. It's probably like 50% owned crypto. So, Ethereum number one is where the stable coin boom is taking place, 60% of it. So, like this whole genius act, Bessant says stable coins are going to go from 2 and a half 250 billion to 4 trillion.
That's an exponential demand growth for Ethereum. I'm still a Bitcoin. I think Bitcoin is going to a million, but I'm saying like Ethereum's relative size, the ratio will actually be 1:1. Today, Jerome Powell announced that rate cuts in 2025 are a high probability. And after Jackson Hole and the FOMC, these are clear indicators that the market is about to see a major shift.
And Bitcoin and crypto holders are more bullish now than ever. Last week, Ethereum made headlines as it finally broke past the $4,000 mark, a milestone that crypto investors had been waiting for. Prices swung sharply as some traders were forced into liquidations while others bet on rival blockchains gaining ground.
But Tom Lee points out these short-term jolts aren't really about Ethereum's fundamentals. They're about market mechanics, . Many experts say $5,000 isn't just possible, it's realistic, especially since Ethereum already brushed 4,000 last December. The renewed momentum isn't just hype. Onchain data shows transaction volumes and active addresses hitting all-time highs.
Developers are pushing network upgrades. . Differing from Bitcoin, Ethereum offers something regulators actually want to harness. Smart contracts that power decentralized applications and digital finance ecosystems. in a recent interview on crypto, . So, keep in mind that the Genius Act and then SEC's project crypto is the recognition that using blockchain makes Wall Street faster and more efficient.
I've seen it at Bitmine cuz like when we get the cash, the minute it touches the blockchain, it moves much we have much better visibility and it's much easier to move, you know, to actually track the money. The wallets are all tracked and uh this is like 1971 because in 1971 the dollar went off the gold standard.
Yeah. And everyone said, "Oh, I'll buy gold instead." But remember, the dollar suddenly became a fiat. Yeah. And Wall Street innovated because they said, "Now we have a dollar. Let's make sure we can move the dollars efficiently." You need to move bars of gold to match the movement of the dollar. So it created Wall Street came out of that single act in 1971.
So now n 2025 project crypto from the SEC and Genius Act is saying Wall Street take advantage of this new technology to make Wall Street a tech industry but they're all choosing to do it or the majority are choosing to do it on Ethereum. Ethereum is smart contract platform and has what they call EVMs Ethereum Ethereum virtual machines.
So you can do basically a lot of smart pro programs and contracts. That's where Robin Hood is doing their stable coins, the tokenized products on top of Ethereum, right? So that's we're not moving the price of ETH. I can assure you. But I'm just saying like in a practical sense cuz when we're actually in the market like we have a billion dollar buyback program in place and with this native yield from ETH, we could be buying back the
buying back the shares, not more ETH, but the actual stock. That's right. So, like in other words, like we have an internal mechanism to protect shareholders, but shareholders have aren't being hurt in the sense that there's $35 of ETH. Well, last week $35 of ETH held per share supporting the stock price, which means we're not trading at a premium, especially considering the growth of that Ethereum held per share.
It's growing like 50 cents a day or something. How big could ETH get? What how big? How I hate the term market cap cuz it's not applicable. Your company has a market cap. ETH doesn't have a market cap. Has a market size. It has a network value. What is the What is the current value of all the ETH in the world?
How big do you think it could get? Cuz working backwards, that's what the 5% stake in ETH, right? Okay. It's about 5 480 billion right now of fully diluted network value. Okay. But is the supply contracting or not yet? Uh, it's actually growing about 1%. growing 1%. It's slower than Bitcoin's inflation rate.
It's actually a third of Bitcoin's inflation rate. Okay. How big and how big do you think that could be? Well, I think that there is a very high probability. I'm going to say maybe even 50% that Ethereum's network value will flip bitcoins. Wow. Like when the flipping in a maybe in a couple years. People have been saying this for a long time.
How much bigger is bitcoin now? Is it it's two 2.2 two trillion right now and ETH is what 400 billion. Yeah. Um are you but you're not an ETH maxi. You think I'm not I'm still a bit I think Bitcoin is going to a million but I'm saying like Ethereum's relative size the ratio will actually be 1 to1. So you have the alchemy of 5% Bitcoin miner or BMR ranked number 10 by 5day average daily volume.
This is unfreaking believable. Your stock is trading more volume than Alphabet, Broadcom, Micro, Micro. Wow, you flipped strategy already. That's pretty impressive. So, nobody else can do this. Correct. So, that's liquidity because that make institutions want liquidity. So, they know that Tom, we can buy 10 million shares of your stock, but we can get out if we lose, you know, we don't we're not stuck.
Um, the second is the velocity. Cuz see, compared to an ETF, if you bought an Ethereum ETF on June 30th, you still only have $4 of ETH per share. We took your $4 and now it's 35. We're growing your ETH holdings. So, it's different than owning a closed end fund. We're actively growing your Ethereum. Yeah.
Michael S explain it like, don't say yield. Don't say yield. No, no, no. He's saying he's selling, you know, um, a dollar's worth of Bitcoin, but because of the multiple of the stock, he's buying $3 of Bitcoin with it. That's what his mechanism is. When you raise capital and then you're buying it an asset, instead of a building, you're actually improving your book value.
Okay? And then Ethereum itself is only at, you know, 4,000ish. But if it flips, you know, I mean, like, so Ethereum has a lot of upside. Um, are there other tokens out there that this idea makes sense for? Is that something that you guys are thinking about? I think if if something is useful like cuz Ethereum has this whole story of like Wall Street going onto the blockchain.
That's makes it more useful. &e eyes of manufacturing has been below 50 for 28 months. Uh do you care about this? Yeah. Why is why is this bullish? Well, because remember this is actually one where there's no one making up the answers. Like this is a survey that's sent and people respond if things are better, worse, or the same.
You never had a cycle peak when when you've had ISM below. By the way, this is the longest stretch since 1950. When you have this pervasive caution in business, like everybody's bullish. No, they're not. They might feel that way if you're not bullish. Why Why do we have 25 months below a 50 reading on the ISM?
Is it because people that answer this survey, what they hate the most is inflation? That's that would be my guess. And tariffs now. Well, that's like they hate tariffs because of inflation. Yeah. I think they hate inflation more than anything. So, I think that that's why you get four straight years of below 50 ISM prints.
Yeah. Okay. Now, you remember when you are this far for Lauren and ejected and then you flip positive, you won't just go to 50 and then it's over. It'll we probably going to have four years of this staying above 50. I mean, if you look at the history, once it breaks above 50, it it's multiple years.
This but this could be a record stretch above 50. I think we need policy stability, which could come next year, like from the White House. I mean, what else? Okay. Or it doesn't get more unstable. Um, you get a Fed that's dovish. Okay, which is cutting. You're probably going to get that if not now at a minimum by May.
But then you need this third thing to happen. You need the bullhip chain effect was number two. The fastest Fed hikes, well, the fastest inflation cycle in history, the fastest Fed hikes in history, the Trump tariff shock. Yeah. Should have killed the bull market or even killed the economy. So, what does that tell you?
Just like even like you don't even have to know market history, just common sense. Therefore, buy the spoos. Yeah. You never warning. Nobody would do it. If you ask me in January, I'd say, "Okay, we got a risk of a bare market." Right. And none of these things were uh has produced a sustainable That's right.
We've had like bare markets, but not a secular bare market. Yeah. So, let's say that this stock was 16 times and we shot it six times over 5 years, like just kill shots. Yeah. And it grew earnings every year. Yeah. We would say the PE has to go up a lot. And it hasn't. It's actually lower. It's a cheaper market.
It's incredible. So, I don't think most people are looking at an equal weight market. Yeah. So, that's number one. And if they are, they're not looking at the valuation. They're looking at Palunteer. Yeah. They're they're looking when people say there's only seven stocks going up, I think it's a false portrayal of the stock market.
Uh there are seven very large stocks. Correct. But with big earnings. With big earnings. Yeah. Justifiably large. Yeah. And I'd say the reason it's not just seven cuz grant our granny shots doesn't is only equal weighted and it's beating the market this year and it only buys quality growth. So that ETF, that strategy is not reliant on having a 10% slug of the biggest stock in the world.
Yeah, it would hurt an ETF because granny is an equal weight by nature. I I think if that if we said started at point A which is 2016 okay and every company was unchanged and their business strategy was exactly the same and they didn't have to do anything and face any stress in that 9 years then I would be shorting that chart and remember in the S&P like those companies in 2016 out of the 500 in 10 years ago I bet you 20% are gone.
Well, that's the other thing. It's new. It's It's newer, younger, better, faster, stronger companies. Correct. Right. It's not the same. We're not tracking the same 500 companies over 10 years. Yeah. If this was the Wilshshire 5000, I bet you it's been flat. &.
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