저자: SultanMeghji · 외국인
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AI 생산성 향상이 미국 경제 강세를 떠받치고 있으며, 인플레이션에는 디스인플레이션 신호가 거의 없어 고금리·고물가 환경이 향후 5년 이상 지속될 수 있다는 진단. JP모건 CEO 제이미 다이먼은 AI 덕분에 주 3.5일 근무가 실현될 것이라며 AI 효과에 낙관적이라고 소개됨. 출연자는 다이먼의 전망이 근본적으로 맞다고 평가하며, 최근 3~6개월간 실제 생산성 개선이 관찰된다고 주장. AI로 소규모 조직이 대기업 수준의 효율을 내면 미국 경제 전반에 압력이 될 수 있으나, 현재 디스인플레이션 신호는 뚜렷하지 않다고 언급. 4분기와 내년 1분기 경기에 대한 우려는 존재. 다이먼은 IRA·칩스법 등 정부 지출(약 4조 달러 규모 전망)이 향후 인플레이션 요인이라고 봤고, 고령화·사회보장·메디케어 비용도 인플레 우려로 꼽음. 디스인플레이션 요인은 찾기 어렵다는 입장. 투자 관점에서는 이를 일시적 현상이 아닌 '뉴노멀'로 보고, 대규모 AI·자동화 투자를 하는 공개 기업과 민첩한 소규모 비공개 AI 기업에 관심을 두라는 조언. 은행위기 이후 AI 기업들이 상장 대신 비공개로 남아 있어 공개시장에서 기회가 제한적일 수 있음. AI 관련 기업 정리(ShakeOut) 가능성에 대해서는 장기계약·공급망 등으로 대형 기업은 쉽게 무너지지 않을 것이며, 보도자료상의 AI가 아니라 실제 수익성 개선 여부를 봐야 한다고 강조. 금리·인플레이션 관련 직접적인 가격 목표나 개별 종목 매수·매도 언급은 없음.
다듬은 글
the AI hype cycle has swept the nation this year talks of artificial intelligence have dominated earning calls as more seite executives are looking to use this advanced technology to build out their company's growth plans JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Diamond is no different the exec is bullish on the benefits of AI in an interview last month Diamond said he believes a three and a half day work week will take place for the Next Generation all thanks to AI our next guest says Jamie Diamond has a very positive and accurate view on the future opportunities and probable outcome surrounding AI I'm joined by Sultan MGI former Federal Deposit Insurance corporation's Chief Innovation officer and professor and venture capitalist at Duke University good to have you back on the show so Sultan what has givv you so much confidence about some of these projections that we heard there from Diamond well the most interesting thing about what Jamie Diamond has been saying is that he's fundamentally correct and we're seeing it in the market you know we're seeing significant productivity improvements just in the last three to six months and it's really unlike anything else we've seen and he's a fantastic Economist as we know overall the strength in the US economy is being bolstered by these unbelievable productivity improvements and I think the question is just how long will it take for them to spread across the rest of the market and with that in mind then in terms of where the strength of the US economy is and the potential for you know AI to disrupt things what does that do then to the inflation picture it is a really interesting question and I don't think any of us have a great answer you know there aren't a lot of dis deflationary signals currently right now and there's a lot of concern about what the rest of the fourth quarter and first quarter of next year might look like but the reality is is there are a lot of companies out there that are investing tremendous amounts of money in AI mostly for efficiency mostly to streamline back office processes or do automate jobs that were previously done by other people and if you have an environment where a company of 10 people can operate as a effectively as a company of a hundred or a thousand there will absolutely be some pressure on the overall US economy and sulan I I want to get your take on this Quick Clip uh we had an exclusive interview with Yahoo finance our executive editor Brian Sai sat down with Jamie Diamond to discuss why the inflation reduction Act and the chips act shows promise for the US economy let's listen you also have commitments that are being made you know the IRA act the chips act the green economy we think will eventually cost 4 trillion I hope it's well spent though I suspect a lot of it will not be well spent uh you know in Europe when oil and gas prices went way up they basically financed it for all consumers and producers you know so government and then we have aging populations Social Security Medicare A lot of concerns but there are a lot of things which I say are future inflationary I don't see anything which is Future disinflationary and that's that speaks to what we were just discussing that in terms of what we're seeing in terms of disinflationary signals other than a potential recession how should investors and companies be preparing for this what sort of investment should they be making it's a fantastic question and you know I'm not an official investment adviser so take everything I'm about to say with a grain of salt but I don't see anything fundamentally altering the inflation picture the rate picture or frankly a lot of the jobs pictures except for things like artificial intelligence so instead of thinking that we're going to be out of this with quotes around at 6 12 months from now or or coming out of the next presidential election we should probably start considering that this is the new normal and that the kinds of disruptions we're seeing the kind of energy in the overall Market could be just like this for the next five years and so which sorts of companies do you think would be most exciting for investors as we look at this transition to a lot more AI dominance and sort of AI filtering its way into our everyday lives from how we work the sort of cars that we drive as well absolutely you know one of the one of the most interesting things right now is that out of the recent banking crisis so much of the tech Venture Capital ecosystem has been disrupted and so instead of seeing a lot of private companies go through the IPO path or go down the acquisition path by larger public companies a tremendous number of very interesting artificial intelligence companies are private and and probably will stay private for quite a while and so if I'm evaluating the public markets I'm looking for companies that are fundamentally investing significant Capital into artificial intelligence and other automations so that they can be more competitive over the longer Hall separately I'm looking at a lot of private companies private investment opportunities that are fundamentally focused on small Nimble agile firms you in essence taking out big Legacy competitors you know if you have a an investment in your portfolio and their fundamental technology stack is let's say two years older than your iPhone you're you're probably you you you need to think about whe whether that's a good investment so with that in mind that are we expecting something of a ShakeOut for a lot of these companies that sort of touted AI in their earnings calls and sort of that part of their sales pitch but a lot of people at investors at this point looking for people to show and prove how they're actually going to be using this technology are we expecting much of a shake out what do you think it might look like it's a great question I actually am not sure there's going to be a huge s ShakeOut one of the things that that a lot of big organizations have is they have sticky sales you know they have multi-year contracts they have long-term supply chain you know infrastructures what I'm most interested in seeing is are they adjusting to be a more digital more ad hoc Workforce and delivery and are they actually creating value out of these Investments you know just because I see a press release with AI that doesn't actually mean anything are they fundamentally doing something to their bottom line that's the thing that gets me interested
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