저자: JeffreyGundlach · 외국인
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제프리 건들락은 미 연준이 금리를 너무 늦게 올린 탓에 고금리가 장기화되고 있으며, 2024년 2분기쯤 경기침체가 올 가능성이 크다고 본다. 경기 신호: 장단기 금리차 역전이 해소되는 중이고, 실업률이 12개월 이동평균을 넘었으며, 현재 소비자 신뢰가 악화되고 있다. 이런 선행지표들이 1년 이상 침체를 가리켜 왔다고 주장. 금리 전망: 채권시장은 2024년 중 연준이 50~58bp 인하할 것으로 보지만, 건들락은 고금리 장기화 또는 급격한 경기둔화 후 빠른 인하 중 하나가 될 것이며 채권시장 가격과 달리 '고금리 장기화'가 가장 걱정된다고 말함. 연준은 금리를 올릴 때는 엘리베이터 올라가듯, 내릴 때는 빠르게 내린다는 비유 제시. 재정 리스크: 국가부채 33.7조 달러 중 약 17조 달러가 향후 36개월 내 만기 도래하며, 낮은 쿠폰 채권이 높은 금리로 재발행되어 이자비용이 급증. 2028년경 세수의 절반이 이자 지급에 쓰일 수 있다고 경고. 적자 GDP 9%, 금리 6% 가정 시나리오 제시. 주택·고용: 모기지 금리 상승으로 기존주택 거래는 얼어붙었지만 공급 부족으로 가격은 유지. 최근 고용지표는 정부 일자리 비중이 높고 가구조사는 감소를 보여 의심스럽다고 발언. 투자 조언: 경기침체 시 대형 기술주(매그니피센트7)가 먼저 하락할 가능성이 크므로 비중을 줄이고, 시가총액 가중보다 동일가중 바스켓을 선호. 미국 은행 익스포저 축소, 금융보다 제조업 선호. 달러지수가 꺾이면 신흥국 주식으로 점진적 분산 투자 고려. 단기적으로는 채권 강세가 나타날 수 있으나, 재정 문제로 경기침체 후 금리는 오히려 상승할 수 있다고 봄. 정책 견해: 공화당·민주당 문제가 아니라 재정을 수학적으로 관리할 인물이 필요하다고 주장하며, 적자 0 공약을 내는 후보가 나와야 신뢰할 수 있다고 말함.
다듬은 글
Jeffrey it's uh it's always an honor to to get some time with you thank you for agreeing to doing this conference I know you're a very busy guy and you know one vibe from inside this room here in New York City Jeffrey it's a lot of folks I think are concerned about how far the Federal Reserve has come uh on interest rates uh and also concern on how long they may hold interest rates at current levels how how concerned are you about what the Federal Reserve has done well I I think they had to raise interest rate because of their uh delay in beginning raising interest rates and how slow they began If Only They had followed my advice in March of last year uh to raise interest rates not 25 or 50 basis points when they lifted off but do 200 I think we'd be in a much better place we probably wouldn't have to be up at this level but you know the yield curve is inverted it has been it's now de inverting it's flat we have the unemployment rate is above its 12- month moving average we have consumer confidence in the present is deteriorating uh and it's always sort of cautious about the future but usually uh they're optimistic about the present but that's starting to fade so we have a lot of of of major indicators that have been in recessionary signaling for a year plus and so I think the FED has stopped raising interest I don't think we're going to do it again that's clearly the message from the bond market the thing that's worries me the most is the concept of higher for longer and not so much for the economy because once the economy uh starts to noticeably weaken it seems like that's almost happening in real time but once that happens the FED will cut interest rates the bond Market's forecast is has been at odds with the fed's movements and the fed's dot plots for much of this year and now the uh Bond markets internal pricing suggests that the FED will cut rates 50 basis points or maybe 58 of 1% during 2024 I I believe that's the one thing that is not going to happen I think they'll either stay higher for longer which is their rhetoric and I hope they don't or the economy will noticeably weaken and they'll do what they always do and that is cut interest rates much more rapidly than they raised them I like to use the phrase the FED uh takes the the state up and the elevator down when it comes to interest rates so the reason I'm worried about higher for longer is something that's already in evidence but isn't getting enough attention and that is our fiscal situation the interest expense on the debt is exploding in a vertical fashion because all of those bonds that were issued back at 25 to 50 basis point interest rates are maybe only as high as 1% they're all rolling off and they're rolling off with great speed so You' have to to reinvest those bonds that were paying almost nothing at an interest rate of well at the FED funds rate is 5 and 38% and that leads to a tremendous increase in interest expense of the debt already the interest expense since the FED started raising interest rates has gone up by hundreds of billions of dollars almost half a trillion dollars per year and it's going literally vertical and we have 30% of all of the bonds in the national debt which is is now $33.7 trillion not all of them are held by the public certainly the FED owns about little under eight trillion of them but all these bonds about 17 trillion of them come due over the next 36 months yeah so that means that if we keep interest rates higher for longer these bonds that yield you know sort of one or two% are going to be re you know reissued at 300 basis points or more higher interest rates and on 17 trillion that's another 500 billion dollars so we have a massive problem that's coming look that we're staring down because of the low interest rates being in place for so many uh years almost a decade and now the FED being higher for longer and this is happening also to small businesses who used to pay 4% and now they're paying nine or even 12% which is obviously another problem if we're higher for longer because a lot of people can Bridge a gap of temporary inflated interest expense but not if we're going to be higher for longer so my my belief is that we're going to be in recession if we're not already in recession we'll probably be in a recession uh by the second quarter of 2024 Jeffrey I can tell you you're not alone uh before you came on before you came on our screen uh we just talked to AT&T John Stanky company with a lot of debt but he voiced his concerns about the fiscal situation in this country so when I hear you say in this room here uh in New York City hears you say there might be a recession next year what is your best advice to investors where do they go well you should be up in quality you you right now there's the strange level place to stand because I think in a pavlovian sense which you've already started to see happening over the past week that when people are getting more inclined to believe that the econom is softening they have a pavlovian response born of 40 years of experience of falling interest rates on a secular basis that you just automatically want to buy bonds you want you want to upgrade in credit quality and that's working I mean bonds have done really well over the past week stocks have done well too because they needed bonds uh to do well to to uh kind of stop falling uh which happened over the last the last few months but I think what most investors are going to be surprised by is while interest rates will probably fall in an automatic reaction to weaker economic growth I don't think they're going to stay low because of the supply problem this fiscal problem is going to get much much worse in a recession because of course there's going to be a strong response it's going to be probably an inflationary response to uh this this this fiscal situation and so weirdly I think we're going to have higher interest rates uh uh in the aftermath of the recessionary response so we may actually have lower interest rates in the first half of 2024 which I think is likely it's already begun but then interestingly we might have to Pivot to the real of a I don't know uh debt to GDP which is now running at 6 to 8% which is already incredibly High given the idea that people think the econom is pretty decent we could easily see the uh the deficit go to 9% of GDP and when you start to look at the arithmetic of all of this it's really uh rather rather troubling I mean like I said 36% of the debt rolls off uh half of the debt rolls off for the next 36 months but what if the deficit is 9% of GDP and what if interest rates are at 6% instead of at 3% which is the average yield on the entire treasury debt stuff that's rolling off in the next 3 to six months probably has a lower interest rate than the 3% average across the curve but you can just start to see what's going to happen to the interest expense and in five years let's just say we go higher for longer and we have a a 6% uh interest rate we have 9% uh of of uh deficit per GDP amazingly by 2028 using the cbo's own assumptions which are probably overly optimistic 50% of all tax receipts would be going to debt payments which of course is an impossibility given that 70% of the of the of the budget is mandatory spending you can't have half of it going to interest rate expense so this is really we're really getting to that moment that we've all been uh us oldtimers have been talking about for decades we used to be when I was maybe 10 years into this business it used to be well we all know that we're on unsustainable path but it's really going to hit the fan in about 2050 and then all of a sudden it was 2040 and now the CBO themselves and the Social Security trustees themselves acknowledge that they're out of money in about seven years and that's assuming no recession so we're basically at that moment where it's not our grandchildren's problem it's not our children's problem it's our problem yeah and uh what investors have been trained to think they understand is a secretly falling interest rate regime because even if you've been around for 40 years like me you've broadly experienced falling interest rates and oftentimes of some significance and our entire economy is debt is based on debt and you know one thing that investors think they know is how relationships hold when you're in recessions interest rates fall you know when uh when get companies get stressed they're able to refinance because you're in a secular falling interest rate environment but you're not anymore yeah interest rates are not falling anymore on a secular basis they actually bottomed out between 2016 and around 2020 and uh what will happen if you can't refinance and you go into recession and interest rates aren't down but they're up I these these are things that people have to open their mind to it's almost like a metaphor that is already happening real time for the housing market you know people thought that interest rates on mortgages going from roughly 3% to roughly 8% would be crippling for the housing market well it's been crippling for uh existing home turnover because there's no Supply because nobody that has a mortgage at 3% wants to sell their house and take out a mortgage at 8% yeah right so the the housing market has held up remarkably in terms of its pricing due to no Supply so the interest rates have gone up but the prices have stayed up in fact the K Schiller 10 City index is actually a new high yeah so home affordability is at an all-time low so all of our lives have been geared to low interest rates and now that we start to uh understand that higher interest rates have a consequence I think that this idea that we're going to avoid a recession is is really losing steam uh thanks to in particular the uh employment data that came out on Friday which was definitely weak but 34% of the jobs even there were only about 100,000 jobs officially created 34% of them were government jobs yeah so there were hardly any private sector jobs and there's another survey that doesn't get as much play which is called the household survey and it actually has been showing job losses so there's this weird uh behavior in the labor data that I'm starting to get suspicious about and that is that we get these these jobs reports and they they tend to look fairly good until the most recent one but strangely there's revisions uh that go back a few months so the revision visions that came out on Friday actually showed that the the job market wasn't as strong and I'm starting to get cynical about some of this government data I'm wondering if they don't intentionally over report the the first uh headline data number on the first Friday of a month for the preceding month so that we can get sound bites from politicians to say hey look a great jobs report and then they sweep under the rug the fact that there's revisions in the path so Jeffrey so I I I'm very I'm very sober about what's really going on in the economy and think a lot of Wall Street Talking Heads are looking at backward-looking data and not being honest intellectually about what's coming in the future so I hear you uh really putting forth a case Jeffrey of of economy that could hit a recession next year it's slowing deficits are out of control so my question to you is does that argue the need for a republican in the White House someone that may want to Wrangle and get down government spending because I think a lot of folks in the Wall Street Community will acknowledge that this this current Administration has spent a ton infrastructure EVS you name it that has contributed to the deficit well I wish they'd actually spent things spent the money on the things that you you uh just listed I'm pretty sure a lot of the money gets wasted I'm sure a lot of the money gets uh disappears I know a lot of the money we sent to Ukraine for example the Ukrainian officials say that they they're the money is disappearing they're they're stealing it like there's no tomorrow so we're not really investing the money but a republican coming into the office how's that going to help we run out these deficits under every Administration uh it's basically a disease that we we believe that we can run a$2 trillion do budget deficit in perpetuity uh and so I think I don't I don't think that it's it's a Republican versus Democrat issue I think it's a mathematician versus pseudo Economist issue and I'm a mathematician and that's what I've been trying to outline uh so far in this conversation but the politicians they actually have put out ideas like modern monetary Theory which you notice how that's disappeared that was that was about five years ago the idea was you could spend endless amounts of money and they had some bizarre theory that it wouldn't cause inflation I think all those guys have gone back into their rat hole because obviously got inflation when we spent the four and a half trillion dollars which supposedly under modern monetary 3 wouldn't have had a problem so what what we need is a mathematician and and and not not a supply side Economist uh in in power and that will ultimately happen but it people have to really experience an O you know a crack of Doom sort of a moment that they they realize uh that this is not sustainable I I saw an article today about wework you know wework had a 40 odd 47 billion uh market cap five years ago four years ago in 2019 and now that they have liabilities that exceed their assets so they're filing for bankruptcy and restructuring you know there had to be a moment for I mean when you were a$ 47 billion do market cap for a company that had been around for only 10 years or so I'm sure that the the sea Suite was popping the champagne Corks And liveing large I think they bought a Gulf Stream I don't know if it was I'm sure they did but you know and and there had to be a moment where the SE suite at we work had this crack of Doom and said oh my God you know we we are bleeding money and there is no possible way that we can stay on this path well I i' I've had my crack AO moment about the US finances uh and it really came in 2020 for sure where I realized that we crossed the Rubicon but it's a republican is not going to help we need somebody that want we need somebody that is going to okay if the Republican runs on zero budget deficit then I'll take them seriously that's what we need get some getting some Applause here the room jeffre you're getting some Applause and you know look we got about 2 minutes left and it's very rare I think for a lot of folks in the room and the millions around the world watching this in the Stream to get direct access to you and that's what it feels like just being in this room my question to you lastly is on this what is your message to those investors that essentially have concentrated their wealth in seven of the world's biggest stocks otherwise known as The Magnificent Seven what is your message to them are they playing with absolute fire of course there will obviously be the worst perform in the upcoming recession whatever what whatever is the leading the charge going into the economic downturn invariably must lead the charge on the way down so I would get out of them I would go into an equal weighted basket as opposed to a market weighted basket I would be moving away from us uh banking system for sure because the US banking system although people are uh touting it from time to time the banks are losing a ton of money uh one large Bank in America I won't name their name but they've got about a trillion dollar Investment Portfolio and it's kicking off 3% but the borrowing cost at the FED is over 5 and 38 so you want to stay away from all of these things that are debt based so I would go for manufacturing as opposed to finance I would go for equal weighted versus Market weighted and I would be going towards uh uh gradually uh diversifying it's it's it's hasn't really been a good idea but it's probably time to start diversifying on like a dollar cost averaging basis into non us uh equities in particular I would start thinking about Emerging Markets once the dollar Index starts to fall which has not happened yet but it's going to happen in the next recession well it's always a great to it's a real treat to get some time with you uh Jeffrey gunlock I know you're busy guy I know you're out there doing some uh some stuff it's great to get this uh really interesting Insight from you double line founder and Co Jeffrey gunlock thanks for uh making time with us uh as always really appreciate it all right thanks good
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