저자: 누리엘루비니 · 외국인
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미국 경제는 성장률 4.9%, 실업률 저수준, 고용 견조로 양호하지만 높은 물가로 인한 실질임금 하락이 체감 심리를 짓누르고 있어 여론과 지표의 괴리가 발생한다. 경제 전망: 향후 12개월 내 연착륙 가능성이 있으나 높은 금리와 지정학 리스크로 얕은 경기침체 가능성도 남아 있다고 봤다. 소비자 신뢰는 연착륙과 물가 하락, 실질임금 회복이 이어지면 점차 개선될 것으로 전망했다. 정책 평가: 바이든과 트럼프 모두 신자유주의 이후의 보호무역·산업정책(반도체법, IRA, 인프라법)을 추진해 정책 연속성이 클 것으로 봤다. 소득·부 불평등 해소에는 인프라와 제조업 투자가 도움이 되지만 쉽지 않다고 평가했다. 재정 리스크: 가장 큰 위험은 구조적 대규모 재정적자로, 여야 모두 재정 건전화에 실패하고 있으며 사회보장·메디케어 개혁이 필요하다고 지적했다. 채권시장: 장기금리 상승은 재정적자에 따른 국채 공급 증가, 연준의 양적긴축, 중국·일본 등의 국채 수요 감소, 일본 금리 정상화에 따른 자금 환류가 원인이다. 새로운 균형 10년물 금리는 약 5~6%(물가 2%, 실질금리 2.5% 이상)로 본다. 메가 위협: 40년간 누적된 민간·공공 부채가 과도하며, 2020년까지 저금리로 감춰졌던 이자 부담이 금리 상승으로 드러나고 있다. 신흥국은 디폴트 위험이 있고, 선진국은 자국 통화 채무를 인플레이션으로 실질 상환하는 방식으로 부채를 줄일 것으로 예상했다. 출연자 전망 요약: 단기 경기 연착륙 가능성 우세, 장기 금리 상승 지속, 재정 리스크 누적, 인플레이션을 통한 부채 소각 가능성이 핵심 메시지다.
다듬은 글
so Americans are very gloomy about the economy and norel rabini is going to help us understand why norel do you understand these disconnects why people are so bummed out even though certain parts of the economy are doing quite well sorry of a bit of a Sor throat um um well as as you pointed out first of all the economy is doing reasonably well you know third quar qu third quarter growth was 4.9% growth has been above potential inflation's been high has gone from 9% towards 3% unemployment rate is very very low below the structural unemployment rate and job creation has been robust slowing down right now so there is a clear disconnect between what uh this poll suggest and what the actual economic data are I think there are probably several factors that explain that disconnect Factor number one was that inflation was quite High until recently and it ered the real wages and wages were growing less than inflation therefore there was a significant fall in the last year and a half in real wages they're now going up again because wage growth is robust and inflation is falling but for a while inflation was rising and people look at their pocketbooks and they see that food is more expensive energy is more expensive whole bunch of other services are more expensive uh and that that's that's part of a problem secondly there is economic insecurity about the future clearly the econom is doing well right now but there is a worry that uh eventually we may get into recession there's incom and wealth inequality and economic activity might slow down as opposed to picking up three even if inflation is low right now say 3% the price level at which you're buying say food or energy or the servic is higher and the only way you could have a situation in which prices are lower the way they were before for example coid would be if you had a recession and that recession would lead to a deflation but that's not the way you want to get lower prices so at some point when inflation occurs even inflation is falling the level prices is higher so real income might be squeezed and that's something that cannot be resolved something we have to accept so there's a variety of different factors I explain this kind of a economic Mal in the polls so we're not going to ask you to be a political prognosticator but you are an economic prognosticator um what is do you think is going to happen in the economy during the next 12 months leading up to election day which is basically a year from now well there were um sorry there are three scenarios about the economy one right now looks like highly unlikely a real say hard Landing cever recession and a financial crisis 6 months ago with a banking problem that was a risk a year ago with Rising inflation commodity prices that was a risk that ta risk is lower so the question is whether the econom is going to have a soft Landing where you go back to 2% inflation uh without any recession or whether there's going to be a softish bumpy Landing where in order to achieve 2% inflation you're going to have a a short and shallow recession I would say that the the jury is still out on that the economic divid actually right now look like in the direction of soft Landing growth is still about po potential inflation has been falling and therefore we're going in the right direction but interest rates are higher higher for longer than may slow down the economy there are geopolitical risk that might lead to a spike in Energy prices and therefore there are factors that could lead us to a short and shallow recession now from a political point of view even a short and shallow recession will be very damaging for Biden because if there was a recession during an election year of course his popularity will further decrease so uh we political polling is is one thing which is not an e an economic indicator but consumer confidence surveys are an economic indicator and many of them are terrible I mean they are uh they are recessionary I mean that people's attitudes are similar to what they are like during a recession do you see no um way in which people are going to feel better about the economy during the next 12 months well it depends if in the next 12 months we have a soft Landing if growth stays above potential if inflation Falls further if real wages are increasing then I think the consumer confidence going to be increasing over time the consumers by the way have still a buffer of about a trillion dollar of savings 5% of their disposable income they can use in case there is a slow down the economy and that's one of the reason why the econom is stronger than otherwise we have the chips act we have the infrastructure act we have the those are going to be fiscal boost Bo to the economy and to real incomes so as long as the economy is going to do well and avoid the recession I think consumer confid is going to likely improve over time uh you I mean you think it'll improve over 12 months enough to move the needle in the presidential election um let's put this way sentiment matters but um people look also at what's happening if there is a soft Landing if economic growth is above potential if job creation is still robust if uh inflation is lower if unemployment is low I think at some point people going to realize that their economic conditions are better than their foul mood and some of that fou mood is also partisan if you look at these polls most Republican regardless of the economic conditions think the economy is poor most Democrats think otherwise so there's also a little bit of a partisanship there's a bit of a bias in this SP so you mentioned those uh some of the that big legislation Biden has signed um there was the infrastructure uh act in 2021 the so-called in uh inflation reduction act in 22 which had really nothing to do with inflation that was about green energy mostly the semiconductors act also in 2022 um some of this is is this is not business as usual this is a more robust government role in in the economy um what are your thoughts on how this is affecting the economy and is it address is it going to do anything about income inequality which you just mentioned well I would say that there was an economic doctrine of neoliberal policies that was actually by partisan when George W Bush was president when Clinton was President when Obama president that was the view uh more globalist engag with China free trade engage with China open up free migration uh small budget deficits deregulation and so on for many reasons this has led to income and wealth inequality and economic Malad so it's out of the window it was out of the window even before Biden came to power if you think about Trump his policy were completely different from traditional GOP that used to be in favor of big business big Tech Wall Street and you name it so that movement towards more neop populist policies protectionism and more government intervention in the economy more subsid to the private sector more regulation on bashing big business started under Donald Trump the problem Donald Trump was the Iran as a populist and he then govern as a as a plutocrat tax for the rich bashing labors and so on while Biden has become a true neop poist and his economic policies whether is on trade whether is the risking whether it's controlling China whether is restrictive migration whether it's stimulating the economy with infrastructure res ing of manufacturing FR Shoring and so on go in the direction of rebuilding the economic and the job base of the United States so in some sense conceptually Trump and Biden are close to each other but one pretended to be a populist while one is a truly an economic populist so is that what is the outcome going to be of what Biden is doing with the economy first of all is it does it stand to think that this could this will last even if we have a change of administration because as you know Administration flip flop on policies is this is this sort of the new uh neopopulism here to stay and is it going to address income inequality and many many of the problems that Donald Trump actually kind of put his finger on in 2016 well I think that regardless of whether Biden wins or Trump uh policies that are of the risking of protectionism of De globalization of decoupling on one side restricting migration a great the role of subsidies to favorite sectors that are strategically important whether is semiconductors or others are going to remain of course the policy of Biden and Trump on climate change are very different Biden has passed the IR act but the IRA Act is actually very popular in red states that are investing massive amounts of money into all these renewable energy so it's going to stay those subs are going to be there regardless of who's in power so I would say there be more continuity in terms of Economic Policy rather than differences between Trump and Biden I mean on income inequality I would say there's been a massive rise in income and wealth inequality that's why even the GOP has become populist and against W Street big nness big Tech it's not very easy to address income and wealth inequality but if you can invest in your country investing into infrastructure invest in manufacturing investing into res Shoring over time those types of policy can help blue colar white colors and those Left Behind regardless of who is in power you are I mean you're endorsing protectionism to some extent correct I'm not endorsing protection I'm saying there are some elements of drisking or theing that for geopolitical reason we have to do as Jack Sullivan said we want a small yard with high fences to see what's actually truly strategic and paradoxically when Trump most tariffs against Chinese Goods those were just consumer goods that were not strategically important while in the case of Biden is semiconductors Technologies and other things are strategically important to the United States so even if you want to the risk you have to do it in the right way um is there is there anything that you feel Biden should be doing in that regard that he is not doing I think the biggest problem that we're facing is the one of our large budget deficits some of the strong growth is coming from very loose fiscal policy it started under Republicans first the tax cuts of trump and then the stimulus during coid and it was continued by the Democrats the trouble is when Republicans are in power they cut taxes but they are unable to cut spending and when Democrats are in power they increase spending but they canot raise taxes as much and therefore we have structural large budget deficits that stay regardless a republican Administration or a Democratic and now this large budget deficits are leading to a rise in interest rates nominal real but on the short end and long end and that can crowd out economic growth over time so that's the biggest risk we face so we is going to be in power eventually fiscal consolidation is necessary but because of the partisanship between the two parties we're not going to have a resolution this problem especially of entitlement reforms because our social security system and our Medicare of course are not sustainable pay you go system with large unfunded liabilities yeah okay good I'm glad you got into that uh in just a couple minutes left let's see how much we can cover on the bond market how can you tell our audience how much of the recent increase in longer term rates the rates that affect mortgages car loans and so forth how much of that do you attribute simply to the size of the US uh budget deficits which is ongoing treasury issues because there are other things going on China is not buying us treasuries the way it used to it's actually selling and things like this so can you isolate out for us for us the effect of the US fiscal situation on Rising interest rates well the short rates have been rising because of the FED tightening uh long-term interest rates have been rising in part because of a tighter monetary policy but those in part because we have now larger budget deficits the FED instead of buying the bonds is doing quantity tightening selling them passively the demand for Treasures from our strategic Rivals of course is falling because they worry about us seizing assets of China like we did for Russia Iran and North Korea as the Japanese normalized policy rates money is going to flow back from treasuries backs to Japan so the supply of Treasury is going to be large because of the large budget deficits demand from actors whether it's the FED foreign Sovereign we funds or private investment is falling and therefore the new equilibrium is one in which nominal and real yields are going to be higher for longer I would say the equilibrium 10e treasure is not anymore 1% is probably something like 5 to 6% 2% inflation and at least 2 and a half% real rates so you wrote the book Mega threats uh which is out in paperback today I think yes um is this a mega threat yes in in the first two chapter of my book the first two chapters the first one is titled the mother of all that crisis and I pointed out that that to GDP B ratio private and public implicit and explicit have gone through the roof for the last 40 years however until 2020 while debt ratios were high debt servicing ratios were low zero policy rates negative policy rates quantitive easing credit easing there were $18 trillion equivalent of public debt in Europe and Japan up to maturity of 10 years that the negative nominal yield until 2020 that party is over as interest rates rise on the short end and on the long end of the year curve that servicing ratios are now becoming Higher and Higher and whether you are a household or a corporate or a business or a bank or another financial institution or a government or a country that's too much debt and leverage eventually you're going to end up into that distress now if you're an Emerging Market you have to default if you're an advanced economy uh borrowing local currency can always wipe out the real value of long duration fixed income through unexpected inflation and that's what I think is going to happen we're not going to default our Dept we're going to wipe it out the way with inflation over time okay I hope President Biden is listening we have outlined the problems started talking about a few Solutions norel rabini thank you very much for joining us thank you
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