Shankar Sharma ,Nilesh Shah और Mark Mobius से जानिए Bazaar के Most Underrated और Overrated Sector

요약 보기

과대평가 섹터와 과소평가 섹터를 주제로 한 패널 토론이다. 결론: 과대평가 섹터는 은행, 과소평가 섹터는 중소형 기업이다. 은행 (과대평가) - 패널 중 한 명(Shankar Sharma 측)은 은행을 직접 투자하고 싶은 섹터가 아니라고 평가했다. - Nilesh Shah는 은행이 지수에서 차지하는 비중 때문에 대형 공공 자금 운용사로서 은행을 피할 수 없다고 언급했다. 중소형 기업 (과소평가) - 비지수(non-index) 우량 기업에 큰 기회가 있다고 주장했다. 포트폴리오 기업들은 지수에 편입되어 있지 않지만 유동성이 양호하다고 한다. - 인도 기업 중 자기자본이익률(ROE)·총자산이익률(ROA) 20% 이상이면서 부채가 적은 기업이 많다는 점을 강조했다. - 예시로 소규모 기업(시가총액 약 300~400억 루피 수준)을 들었다. 순자산 약 45억 루피 규모에서 2022~23 회계연도 이익 약 25억 루피, 추가 성장 여지가 있다는 설명이다(약 50~70% ROE 주장). 포트폴리오 운용 방식 - 중소형주는 실패율이 높아 25~50개 종목으로 분산 투자하고, 확신이 커지면 비중을 늘리는 방식이라고 설명했다. 마라톤에 비유해 성과가 부진한 종목은 점차 정리한다고 했다. - 최근 가격 부담이 줄어든 IPO 중에서도 수익을 낼 기회가 있다고 언급했다. 최종 발언 - 과소평가 요소: 경영진·지배구조(management and governance). 이를 존중하면 주식시장 손실 가능성이 크게 줄어든다고 주장했다. - 과대평가 요소: 사업의 해자(moat)가 영구적이라는 믿음. 파괴적 혁신이 빠른 환경에서는 스스로 사업모델을 파괴할 수 있는 기업에 투자해야 한다고 주장했다. 전망 및 리스크 - 구체적 가격 목표나 지수 전망은 제시되지 않았다. 장기 보유 관점이 중심이다. - 소형주의 실패 가능성과 IPO 과열 리스크가 언급되었다.

다듬은 글

※ AI가 다듬은 글(오탈자·군말 정리)

01. Source is in English, so the output stays in English (no translation). Below is a cleaned-up version.

02. Shankar Sharma, Nilesh Shah, and Mark Mobius on the Most Overrated and Underrated Sectors in the Indian Market

03. The most overrated sector in India is banks. The most underrated sectors are medium-sized companies across a number of sectors. Actually, we have been focusing on those kinds of companies in our meetings. Nilesh does not like banks; he prefers small-cap and mid-cap companies.

04. My feeling is that the great opportunities are in non-index companies. None of the companies in our portfolio are in the index, but they still have good liquidity, and these are great companies. For example, Apollo and Persistent: we are happy to hold them for the next three to five years, and we will hold on to them for as long as they continue to grow.

05. What is amazing about India is that when we scan markets around the world, the number of companies with a return on capital or return on assets above 20 percent is remarkable. In other countries such companies are very hard to find. A company with an ROE or ROA of 20 percent or more usually has no debt or very little debt, and is usually growing at a good pace. This is the great thing about India, and it reflects the economy, which is growing so fast.

06. You can't say banks are underrated just because someone asked. In my view, banks are not a sector I want to put my money into. Nilesh will disagree, of course, and that's fine, that's the market. But as a large public money manager, he cannot avoid banks, simply because of their weight in the index.

07. I agree with Mark. I have an investment in a very small company, with a market cap of around 300 to 400 crore. Its net worth is about 45 crore. In the full year to March 2023, it made about 25 crore in profit, and the owner told me that is still much lower than what he thinks it can deliver. Imagine: on a 45 crore balance sheet, it delivers 25 crore in profit, and he says it can go to 35 crore. That is a 50 to 70 percent return on equity, which is phenomenal. No other country in the world will give you numbers like this.

08. How many stocks do you broadly own, and what is your investment style when investing in small and mid-cap stocks? What factors do you look at?

09. I own a lot of companies. In investing in small caps in general, I don't want to be concentrated; I would rather be diversified to begin with, and then gradually increase exposure based on my confidence in the numbers of each business. There will be a lot of failures. Small caps are not a promised land, and I'm aware of that, having been in this game for 30 years. So I keep it fairly wide, maybe 25 to 50 companies depending on the market we are in.

10. Investing is like a marathon. You start with a field of 100 runners, or 50. Then the field spreads out: five or seven runners lead the pack, about ten cluster in the middle, and 25 bring up the rear. You gradually eliminate the laggards, move the money into the leaders and the midfield, and bring in new companies to join the race. It is a constant process.

11. In a growth country like India, there are also incredible IPOs. Some are now priced more reasonably, and you can make significant money even in IPOs, leaving aside the disasters of Nykaa and Zomato. I think people have learned their lessons, and now more reasonably priced IPOs are coming to the market.

12. The most underrated thing is management and governance. People don't give it enough respect. They dabble in all kinds of companies where they neither know the management nor believe there is good governance, and they end up losing money. If people start respecting management and governance, the chance of losing money in the stock market becomes very limited.

13. The most overrated thing is the belief that a business has a moat. We live in a world of disruption. We need people who are paranoid, and management and companies that are always worried about disruption coming. You have to invest in companies that disrupt their own business model rather than waiting for a competitor to disrupt them. Governance and disruption: that is where you make money in the stock market.