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throughout history uh if you print a lot of money ultimately led to the basement of your currency what for me seems to be obvious reasons and when currencies go down something has to go up against it and usually real assets go up against the currencies and so i would suspect that we're going to have the price of real goods going higher we always have anyway but again you have to consider the supply and demand aspects of it as well but if you have a lot of money printing the value of the money is going to go down and the value of something is going to go up against it whether it's sugar or you know who knows what lead something you know even now china has debt in 2008 china had a lot of money to save for a rainy day it started raining and they started spending the money and helped save the world now even china has they're going to be bankruptcies in china gonna shock me and i just told you it's coming it's already happening so the next bear market is gonna be a nightmare is that some kind of huge observation or is that just simple looking out the window to me it's looking out the window a simple statement the united states is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world doesn't matter who stops buying our treasuries we've got a problem we have a problem even if people continue to buy our trouble i mean it's a good time to be old because the old people are getting the benefits of all of them it's not a good time to be young i got two teenaged children oh the problems they're going to inherit it's not a good time to be young it's a good time to be old everybody is doing the same thing now everybody's printing money as fast as they can not everybody i should retract that nobody is printing money as fast as the us and the japanese for instance in china they still have interest rates not great interest rates but they're still proper interest rates whereas in japan and america there are no interest rates anymore and in some germany so some countries have done less bad job than others i am looking because i know enough history to know that somebody's going to come out of this in better shape compared to others who are going to come out in worse shape the key of course is to find who and i don't have an answer yet i do know china's doing a less bad job than japan for instance but i own japanese shares because they're you know they're printing money every day and buying etfs the bank of japan has more money than i do if they're buying heatshields i'm buying japanese ctfs come on no there's now there's whenever there's a problem people look for a theory mr marx had a great theory and a lot of people tried it for a long time uh nobody wants to be a marxist anymore but it was wonderful theory now there's one called mmt more money today everybody loves it it's a fabulous theory and we'll probably try something like that you know like marxism was a free lunch for everybody well it didn't work and mmt whatever the real name is more money today basically it's more money today it's an easy way and jeff people love easy answers u.s government has made it legal for the central bank the federal reserve to buy other assets and when things get really bad they're going to do everything they can to save themselves they don't care about you or your kids or my kids they care about the next election and the way they do that is if they have to if they flood the money they're all gonna buy ibm or ford or whatever they're gonna buy i mean to me it's just a simple fact i look around the world i know that in 2008 we had a horrible problem in the world because of too much debt well i mean i read the same newspapers you do i know that since 2008 debt all over the world has skyrocketed so i say to myself well the next time we have a problem it's got to be the worst in my lifetime because the debt is so so much worse than 2008 to me that's just a simple statement simple observation like you know we're going to have bad blizzards every few years you have bad blues if i tell you we're going to have horrible blizzards every few years is that a grandiose statement look it said what happened in texas you know what happens and when i say the next bear market is going to be the worst in my lifetime i know what happened in 2008 i know what's happened since how can it not be to me that's just a simple observation there's a saying in the commodity business and it should be in all businesses that the cure for high prices is high prices because high prices cut demand and bring in supply and that's what happened that the other part of the saying is the cure for low prices is low prices if prices are low a long time people buy more and stop producing so i mean these cycles have been going on for hundreds of years certainly and probably thousands and that's going to continue prices have been going up we had a high price of oil and the declining reserves of oil reserves of oil known reserves were declining everywhere still are new technology came along and for a while there if you could spell fracking people would give you money and a bubble developed and of course we all realized oh wait we got to make money these guys got to pay their debts the fracking bubble popped and burst as all bubbles do frankie's still there but you got to make money at it now so known reserves of oil still continue to decline except for fracking and fracking's not a bubble anymore if we're speaking specifically about commodities um we had a big boom oil went from nothing to 150 us dollars a barrel it's now back to whatever it is now we had booms and that's happened with many many commodities since then you know many commodities boomed and collapsed bonds are in a bubble all over the world property in many places so i mean i can't believe what a bubble there is in property and so uh many stocks are beginning to form bubbles i mean not all stocks i mean only many stocks that are still not up but i can see i see bubbles before i know you have to or read about them so i can see but but commodities that's the only asset class i see that's still cheap silver's down 45 from its all-time high sugars down i don't know 70 or 80 percent from its all-time high oil's down over 50 percent from its all-time high so commodity is the only asset class as a class that i see that's still cheap and i know the fundamentals are changing you know more people in america study public relations and study agriculture now obviously if the world changes you have to change with the world i mean that's pretty straightforward energy is still the most important commodity at least if you ask me as i go i live in singapore and everybody here is still driving and taking the bus to work etc still has electricity and nearly all energy comes from oil and natural gas that may be changing it seems to be changing but you know even if you look at things like electric cars which seem to be coming first so you got to produce the electricity which got to be made from something maybe it's sun power maybe a solar power or wind power but electric cars for instance use five times as much copper as regular cars so yeah the demand for oil may go down but the demand for copper is going to go up and lead and lithium and other things i just wanted to say one thing quickly i have not sold anything this year and i have not sold anything short i don't think this has ended yet there are very few central bankers in the world who know what they were doing india had one of the best a few years ago he's gone now there have not been very many smart central bankers ever anywhere in history so please don't believe they know what they're doing uh they have been printing a lot of money all over the world they have been buying assets all over the world and throughout history that has led to inflation now they keep telling us there will not be inflation or they will be not very long they just don't know what they're doing there's going to be more inflation you know it's here and things like silver and gold have always been a way to protect yourself from inflation i don't think that the exuberance is over yet all of these guys continue to print money uh and what will happen it when things get bad when the markets go down for a while they will panic and they will print more money they don't want to lose their jobs they will do whatever it takes to keep their jobs it's not good for you and me it's not good for the world but they don't care about you and me they care about their jobs so when things start getting solved or going down they will print more money and we'll have a big rally that will probably be the last rally that will probably be when i sell but who knows it's always led to an asset bubble throughout history why is that trouble because when things get wildly overpriced a lot of new people come pouring into markets inexperienced people they get excited and exuberant and then when the bubble pops and it always pops a lot of people lose a lot of money i hope i'm not one of them i know it's going to pop someday i know a lot of people are going to suffer i hope i'm not one of those people if you look back at markets anywhere in the last phase whether it's the last six months or the last few months a year some really crazy things have happened you look back at the end of the 90s the nasdaq the nasdaq the whole index like doubled in six months at the end and it's always that way people get really excited and exuberant and they see things going up they don't want to miss it they want to jump in and you have really wild crazy moves in america we sometimes call it a blow-off you know the market blows off it goes up so far so fast so i would expect that is going to happen again it is often happened in markets and it will probably happen again when they start printing again because then see when things get bad and the central bank comes riding in and prints more money everybody says oh we don't ever have to work the central bank will protect us that's when you get really really worried
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