Interest Rates Are Going to Double - Chamath Palihapitiya

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결론: 연준이 금리 인하 신호로 시장을 달래고 있어 인플레이션 억제가 미완이며, 금리는 추가로 높게 가야 한다는 견해. 정책 배경: 장기간의 완화(재정지출·양적완화)로 채권·주식·암호화폐 가격이 왜곡됐고, 실제 수요·공급 균형은 아직 드러나지 않았다. 파월 발언 해석: 파월의 비둘기파적 발언은 장기채 금리 하락→자산 재평가→차입비용 하락을 낳아 사실상 완화 효과를 만든다. 특히 나스닥·바이오·암호화폐 같은 고위험 자산이 더 크게 오른다. 시장 전망: 연준이 연말에 긴축을 마무리하고 2023년 하반기 인하를 시사하는 것으로 읽히며, 이는 문제를 8분기 더 뒤로 미루는 결과가 된다. 인플레이션·금리 수준: 미국 역사상 CPI가 4.5~5% 이상에서 꺾인 적은 기준금리도 그 이상이었을 때뿐이다. 현재 목표금리 2.25~2.5%는 필요한 수준의 절반 정도일 수 있다. 인플레이션이 4~5%에 머물면 긴축이 더 필요하다. 리스크: 정치권(백악관)과 시장 참여자들은 강한 긴축을 원하지 않으므로, 파월이 여론에 휘둘리면 인플레이션을 잡지 못한다. 정책 제언: 연준은 단호하게 긴축을 마무리하고 인플레이션을 확실히 꺾어 실제 수요를 드러내야 한다. 과정 설명: 과잉 통화가 경제에 들어왔고 그 효과가 아직 다 나타나지 않았으니, 시간이 걸리더라도 기다려야 하며 중간중간 이상한 수치가 나올 수 있다.

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01. loose financial conditions distort what true supply and demand should be and excess money can come from the government but in this case excess government money went from the government into the hands of individuals who then participated in the public markets and they distorted what it what it all looked like and so there was a lot of purchasing activity that was propped up by what seemed like an endless supply of free money and and so now that that money is getting taken out we don't yet know what the real equilibrium economic growth rate should be because you have to remember we have not seen an era without federally introduced spending without federally introduced forms of quantitative easing since the great financial crisis so we have been propping up our economy for 14 years straight now so we have distorted the prices of bonds and fixed income we've distorted the prices of equities we've pro we've created an asset bubble in crypto out of nowhere and now we have to do the hard work of figuring out what the real supply demand is in the economy is it going to take six quarters to wash us out or longer i guess no longer because what david said is now making the problem even worse so because powell was catering to whatever pressure he's been getting and he must be getting some severe pressure from the white house those were really dovish comments but what is the problem when he is dovish well the practical reality is a couple of things number one is typically the yields of long dated bonds go down okay that essentially tells everybody else to reprice assets what does that practically do it makes the cost of borrowing roughly cheaper okay it makes the price of equities particularly ones that are far out on the risk spectrum so specifically let's focus on nasdaq and crypto right tech stocks biotech stocks and crypto stocks go up much more aggressively so what has powell effectively done he has synthetically created a form of easing again right like his job at the federal reserve if you think about the money supply as a pipe it's to shrink the pipe to close off demand to get things in equilibrium so even though he's doing this by the language that he's doing he's effectively allowing market participants to basically guess that the worst is over and now we're going to start to expand the pipe again and so they go to the end state so what he effectively did in one speech is basically put a pin at the end of this year and is telling the markets i'm mostly going to be done and if anything i'm probably going to be cutting in the back half of 23 go on your merry way it's now pushing the problem out another eight quarters like we need to stop this nonsense he needs to be definitive and he needs to fundamentally break the back of inflation so that you find out what the true demand is in the economy we've never in the history of america ever had cpi print above four and a half or five percent without inflation being brought down by having fed funds not also be greater than four and a half or five percent so at some point inflation will turn over and we'll print six and seven percent but that's still not below four and a half or five and right now our target fed funds rate is between 2.25 and 2.5 percent so we could still be only 50 of the way there if inflation remains at four to four to five percent and this is what i think market participants don't want to hear they don't want to hear that there has to be a meaningful form of tightening and politicians don't want to hear that the white house for sure doesn't want me here the problem is that if powell caters to too much of that feedback he's not going to do what he's supposed to do and why he's put in that job i do think that if all of these geniuses could have actually just taken a simple econ and stats 101 class and explained how year-over-year measurements work to the american people i think they're smart enough to understand it we didn't have to go down this convoluted route we could have just explained we put a lot of excess money in the economy we don't yet know what the full effect of that is we need to let that wash through in the meantime you're going to see some crazy numbers from time to time and we just have to be patient