저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
레이 달리오는 향후 6~12개월 단기 긴축 후 재차 완화가 올 것이며, 대규모 부채와 통화 증발이 지속되는 한 인플레이션 압력 속에서 부채성 자산을 피하고 분산 투자해야 한다고 주장한다. 거시 배경: 달리오는 500년 주기에서 세 가지 힘을 제시한다. 첫째, 정부의 재정 부족에 따른 대규모 부채 증가와 통화 발행. 둘째, 미국 내 부의 격차에서 비롯된 좌우 간 이념 대립과 정치적 양극화(1월 6일 사태, 낙태 관련 대법원 판결을 예로 듦). 셋째, 미국 상대 지위 하락과 중국 부상에 따른 세계 질서 재편으로 무역·기술·지정학·자본·군사 전쟁 가능성이 있다고 봤다. 이 조합이 1930~1945년과 같은 어려운 시기를 만든다고 진단한다. 투자 원칙: 인플레이션 압력을 받는 부채성 자산은 피하고, 인플레이션 연동채 같은 예외만 허용된다. 상관관계가 낮은 자산을 조합해 수익률은 유지하고 위험은 최대 80%까지 줄이는 분산 투자가 핵심이다. 국가 분산도 중요하다. 통화: 주요국 통화는 모두 불환지폐이며, 각국은 자국 통화 강세를 원치 않아 통화를 약화시키는 경향이 있다. 금은 비법정 자산으로 부채가 없는 자산이며 현 환경에 유리하다. 포트폴리오의 약 15% 정도를 권장하며, 중앙은행 보유·보관 리스크(정치적 몰수 가능성)도 언급한다. 비트코인은 11년간 해킹되지 않은 점은 인정하나, 시가총액이 마이크로소프트보다 작고 추적 가능성·규제·폐쇄 위험이 있어 한계가 크다고 본다. 디지털 화폐 경쟁이 확대될 것이며 달러는 여전히 중요하고 위안화 위상이 커질 것이라 한다. 인도: 교육 수준 대비 인건비, 상대적으로 양호한 부채 수준이 강점이다. 교육·인프라 개선이 진행되면 향후 10년간 주요국 중 가장 높은 성장률을 기록할 것으로 전망하며, 관료주의와 내부 갈등은 우려 요소로 꼽는다. 출연자 전망: 금은 긴 기간 보유할 자산이며 현재 환경에서 유리하다. 인도 성장 전망은 긍정적이다. 단기적으로는 긴축이 주식·경제 약세를 낳고 이후 다시 완화가 올 것으로 본다.
다듬은 글
the cycle that i saw was brought about by seeing three important forces that i hadn't seen in my lifetime before but happened many times in history which is why i needed to study them that cycle over the last 500 years first when governments run out of money they need more money than they can get they print a lot of money and at the base is that money we have had the largest debt increases and money creations particularly in the leading world's reserve currency the dollar although that's been true in the euro and it's been true in the end too and that has a big effect the second of those influences is really a political and social influence which is the conflict between the left and the right populism often typically due to large wealth gaps and opportunity gaps which exist in the united states now and so you're seeing a conflict you're seeing almost a civil war because as you have populism populism consists of representatives who will fight rather than compromise fight for their way of doing things and so we have an ideological and economic differences that are also political differences that you could see every day reflected in the news and you saw become in january 6 that the issue of losing i think we're in a situation where we can have an election in which neither side accepts losing and so we see that reflected all the time such as the supreme court ruling on abortion you see that type of conflict that conflict the measures i like to measure things is the greatest since 1900 and that also relates to the economic one i touched and then third as far as the changing world order is the relative decline of the united states and rise of china and other countries india for example of course has improved its position many countries so that when the new world order began in 1945 world orders come after a war and then the victors in that war determine how things should go in 1945 when the united states won the war it was the richest country in the world it had 80 of the world's gold and gold was money and it had half the world economy half of world gdp and it had a monopoly on the military power it was the dominant world power and that's why we have the united nations in new york the imf and the world bank in washington dc and that relative positioning there's been a decline in that relative positioning and the emergence particularly of china as a great power and so there is a great power competition taking place and traditionally through history that is resolved by conflicts so we have five different kinds of wars that happen and we're seeing them now a trade war a technology war a geopolitical influence war a capital war and a military war possibilities so that confluence produces these difficult periods the last one was 1930 to 1945 and that's what we're in the midst of so it's very important for me as a global macro investor to understand those and that's why i did this study it affects my positioning today the most important thing is to not own debt assets which are subject to inflationary pressures if you're buying an inflation index asset that would be fine their inflation index bonds but to not own assets which will lose their buying power because there's a lot of debt and has to be printed the second is to create a diversified portfolio of assets a well-balanced if you diversify well and you look at the correlations between asset classes you'll see that one thing goes up another thing goes down for example during times of greater inflation you see commodity prices gold real estate prices you see those types of assets perform better at the expense of other assets and also the stock market has parts of the stock market these different stock markets which are not primarily going to be hurt by investments there's many that benefit by inflation so to create a diversified portfolio diversification is a paramount importance because it is the way that you can maintain a good return without as much risk in other words if you pick investments that have about the same expected return but they're not correlated and you put them together well you can reduce up to 80 percent of your risk without reducing your return so how to create good diversification is very important and that includes country diversification all the currencies are now fiat currencies the dollar of course is the leading world's reserve currency they are related to each other no country wants in this environment of relative depression or relative lower prosperity no country wants to see its currency go up too much so they tend to the fiat currencies this tends to be a fair amount of printing money and then a lowering of that we are in a period a temporary period that i would say will probably last six to 12 months of a tightening in monetary policy but that will be the correction in the trend that tightness will produce weakness in markets to be followed by weakness in the economy to be followed by another round of easing so i want to be clear the printing of money in the large debt will have a correction as there is this tightening coming up which will be probably over the next 6 to 12 months you'll have that so as a storehold of wealth they won't bring interest rates during that tightening to a level that will compensate for inflation so you'll still lose money to inflation which means it's still better off in those inflation head jazzes so when we look at the currencies we're used to looking at them in relationship to each other but they all have that issue then there are non-currency non-fiat gold is an example of a non-fiat currency and then of course we have digital currencies which are newly developed and that's a non-fiat currency i think we've entered a period of time over the next several years where the world is going to be looking for what is an acceptable currency and it's going to be confusing and so these currencies will compete with each other there'll be less attention to fiat currencies and more attention than to others but still of course the dollar will be important and then you will see the remnb become a much more important currency gold let me tell you about gold as a generalization um gold has a return normally at low returning it is a dead asset it is a beautiful limited supply debt asset that is money unlike let's say equities in which there's constant invention and productivity but it's very important to own at some times and at other times it's just going to be a dead asset and those times aren't these times of a lot of debt and money creation and times of conflict times of wars in wars even allied countries don't want to lend to the other country because the everybody's getting in debt and so they'll be paid back with a depreciated currency if they win the war so i believe that this environment that we're in is an environment which is good for gold and therefore it should be a significant part of the portfolio but not a dominant part of the portfolio what that might mean is maybe 15 of the portfolio that would be you know quite a large allocation under today's circumstances perhaps you know as much as that and then there should be other assets that diversify the portfolio cryptocurrencies been really amazing in that let's take bitcoin and there are two types of cryptocurrencies i'm sure in which the quantity is contained as distinct from other types of coins in which there's a variability such as stable coins or ethereum but anyway amazing that they were programmed and have operated for i think it's 11 years now haven't been hacked and so on and have been acquired still there are issues with them the total value of bitcoin for example all that money is less than the value of microsoft and so when you think of different storeholds of wealth it's not very big by the way the gold market isn't very big either it's about five times the size if you take out central bank reserves and jewelry so they have issues transactions can be traced so the privacy issue is an issue so they can't be controlled uh they can be shut down they can be made illegal which tends to happen during times when they may be threats to the alternative currency i don't think they'll be held as central bank reserves for various reasons there's a saying that gold is the only asset you can own that isn't somebody else's liability in other words you own it and you don't have to wait for a payment from somebody else and i think that as the environment that we're in there is a risk of political confiscation or other forms of confiscation gold does uh you know a better job but as i say we're into this new environment is it something that you can carry with you and that you can transact almost anywhere in the world because somebody will buy it it's equally acceptable in most places ideally private if you can find those things it's a competitor but i think in terms of its qualities not as good a competitor one of the most important indicators is the cost of an intelligent person of course of an educated person that's a very good leading indicator india stacks up very well in that regard and its levels of indebtedness which is another important indicator is in comparison to other countries relatively good these are two important indicators the general level of education and infrastructure and internal conflict and so on are areas of greater concern and so is the element of the bureaucracy it's a country that probably will have the highest growth rate over the next 10 years we projected to have the highest growth rate of any country over the next 10 years because of the advantages of that those things that i mentioned and then to the extent that there is improvements in those which it looks like they're improvements underway then india's outlook looks very good
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