저자: MeetKevin · 외국인
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연준 파월이 시장 상승을 억제하려 공격적 긴축을 이어갈 것이며, 영국은행 대비 매파적 기조가 부각됨. 다음 고용·CPI 지표가 약하면 연준이 비둘기파로 선회해 증시 반등 가능성이 있으나, 지표가 강하면 주가 추가 하락(약 50%) 위험. 고용 둔화·해고 확산 조짐을 근거로 들며 당분간 박스권 흔들림과 인내를 조언.
다듬은 글
China is doubling down on its covet zero policies the bank of England is going a little more dovish than markets expected yet Jerome Powell is doubling down on what appears to be this core mission to get all stocks to lose at least 50 percent of their value as we saw in videos I made yesterday Jerome Powell seems really frustrated at the thought that stocks could potentially Rally or move up not only because of what we saw during the press conference of Jerome Powell doubling down on talking the market down as soon as there were any kind of a potential thoughts that the market might actually be going up but it's literally what we were told by Nikki leaks in the Wall Street Journal where the biggest risk to financial conditions for the Federal Reserve is a loosening of tight Financial conditions which we would see a loosening of tight Financial conditions if we saw treasury yields fall and a sustained Market rally undoing the federal reserve's work so another other words there's this direct correlation between markets going up and a Federal Reserve feeling like their work is being undone so does the FED actually have any freaking clue as to what it's doing because after all we have to say it's very weird that this morning the bank of England came out with their highest rate in 33 years highest rate increase in 33 years they came out with a 75 basis point hike but what was fascinating about the 75 basis point hike is they combined that with actually a dovish message they combined that by saying that terminal rates that is Peak interest rates at the bank of England will actually likely be lower than what the market is expecting we got the exact opposite here in America which is hey we've got a little dovish memo that we're going to take into account all the cumulative lags but we're going to raise rates more than markets are expecting and at this point I just feel convinced that Jerome Powell has absolutely no clue what's going to end up happening with interest rates or quantitative tightening I think he has no clue and he said himself that the markets that we're in now are modern economies that have differences in them than what we've seen in the 1970s era inflation or any time before that and as a result I think Jerome Powell is basically politely saying look it's November and like Kevin said before the FED meeting of November the Federal Reserve can't risk going super dovish right before two jobs reports and two CPI reports let's wait for those reports let's wait for those reports to come out and hey you know what if those reports come out and show that joblessness is increasing and that CPI is falling faster than expected hey maybe then it's time to take the foot off the brake maybe then we can U-turn in fact that's what Jerome Powell suggested he told us yesterday that they would rather over tighten and start printing money again then under Titan and risk losing control of inflation and that tells us bluntly especially since right after that he said by the way we haven't started over tightening yet he thinks we've tightened a normal pace which basically means we can still over tighten it's kind of like we're going 60 miles an hour and he's like hey you know if we hit 80 miles an hour we could always hit the brakes by the way we're not at 80 yet so let's hit the gas little bit more on rate hikes and aggressiveness and hawkishness right so what do you have is a Federal Reserve that's basically telling you look so far we're failing and as we continue to fail we're just going to have to get more and more aggressive and we're going to do whatever we need to do to be correct about how we handle inflation and if that means reducing the value of your stocks the value of your home the value of your home equity which is at record highs I'll have a separate video coming out on home equity what ends up happening you get a fed that's more aggressive and of course we do have the hope that the next reports are going to be good but hope isn't really the best investing strategy or at least I should say hasn't yet been the best investing strategy sure if the next two CPI reports and two job reports come in soft dronepal can not only reduce the pace of hikes to 50 in December but maybe they'll actually reduce their summary of economic projections maybe right now they're saying hey today the summary of economic projections would be worse than the terminal rate instead of being 4.6 would actually be five percent or five and a half percent but what if those reports come in bullish and what are the expectations for the jobs report that comes out tomorrow I have those expectations right here in addition to those job expectations what do we think about CPI expectations going forward into next week let's talk about both of those right after our message from our sponsor established titles was oh and you could an et et let's go okay so expectations and could we potentially beat these expectations which would lead to an actually dovish fed rather than this aggressive fed that just says stonks should go down well regarding jobs we are expecting tomorrow the jobs report to come out at 5 30 a.m and when it comes out at 5 30 a.m California time we're expecting a change in payrolls of 200 000 that means a gain of two hundred thousand jobs we expect most of those to be in Leisure and Hospitality as we saw in the ADP private payrolls report yesterday that is a Slowdown from the 263 000 jobs that we gained the last time and it would potentially take the unemployment rate up to 3.6 percent while keeping average hourly earnings stable at point three percent and reducing the average hourly earnings year over year to four point seven percent with labor force participation also staying stable at sixty two point three percent those are the expectations for the jobs Market that actually doesn't show you any kind of meaningful slowdown yet but if we tomorrow get a jobs report that comes in Weak and we get one that suggests hey we only added 50 000 jobs or a hundred thousand jobs way less than the expectation or we're getting anything close to zero wow we went a month without actually on net adding jobs because you've got people like Elon Musk now threatening to lay off fifty percent of Twitter stuff which would be somewhere around 3750 employees hey that's fewer jobs created right and if all of a sudden you get on the balance of having more negatives in a month then that actually shows that the FED is potentially going in the right direction and will much more likely be reducing wage inflation especially since people are unlikely to quit their job jobs to go to an uncertain path of a job market that might not actually be hiring in a recession so there's jobs then on the 10th which is a week from today it's Thursday at 5 30 a.m we're going to get the inflation report and now I have to tell you I'm actually kind of excited about these estimates because there's one thing I want to tell you about estimates it's that they're almost always wrong the problem is when the estimates come in really really low it's hard to show a beat because markets are already expecting that inflation read to come in low so for example when markets are like oh we expect inflation to be 0.2 percent month over month it's like Ah that's already pretty dang low like how are we going to do better than that expectation right well listen to this expectation the expectation for CPI month over month is 0.7 that's an 8.4 annualized Pace I'm actually optimistic we can beat that not only that but core CPI numbers are expected to come in at point five percent uh that excludes food and energy this is going to be lifted up by housing but if we could get larger declines in other sectors we could actually anchor down that services-based inflation from housing that expectation is point five percent it's also not great it's a six percent annualized rate and we see the CPI year-over-year figure coming down only from 8.2 percent to 8.1 percent which actually isn't a really bullish CPI estimate in my opinion it's actually a pretty bad CPI estimate but I think it's one that we could meaningfully beat to the low side which could be really good and so here's the fact here's the bottom line about whether markets are going to go down another 50 percent or not and you have to place your bets on what you think for the next two jobs reports and the next two CPI reports do you think those reports are going to show that we're starting to lose momentum in the jobs Market that things are slowing down at companies that we're seeing layoffs not just at Twitter but Open Door laying off 18 of their staff and more that we're seeing these slowdowns and that CPI is actually in the next two reports going to come in lower than expected and CPI is going to fall quicker than expected if you believe that for the next two reports between now and the December meeting we could actually end up having a drone power that in December says look we're going to go 50 but we might actually be good we get really good reports these next four reports two jobs two CPA reports we might get a Fed that literally tells us you know what we we actually might drop to 25 in January and and just stay stable and hold by March that would probably lead to some substantial bullishness now I know that the Federal Reserve because I started with it as worried about causing a stock market rally but I don't think the FED cares if the stock market rallies as long as the reports are coming in good if the stock market rallies and the reports are coming in bad he's going to talk the stock market down and this is where you have to ask yourself if you think inflation is going to get worse and you think that labor market is going to remain strong going into December with these next four reports then you probably want to be shorting this Market you probably don't want to be long stocks because there's not actually going to be a dovish fed you can only get a real dovish fed when these reports come in positive now I think the expectations are such that we set ourselves up for positivity especially with what's going on look at some of the industries okay residential investment slowing it companies like Generac even though you've got Beats at companies like Enphase and Sunrun recently we are starting to see some signs of slowing and cracking in household spending basically this fixed investment starting to decline we're seeing layoffs and hiring freezes across the board not just at tech companies but at manufacturers at Autos companies but also take a look at this report from Fast Company 85 percent of small businesses say they plan to implement hiring freezes during the economic downturn 78 of small businesses plan to lay off employees 87 percent of small businesses have to re-examine fixed costs like leases and insurance benefits and potentially ask for discounts the Jamba Juice I worked at as a kid just went out of business crazy 43 percent of small business owners are planning to use Freelancers to fill the Gap here's a Barons article hiring is slowing in the downsizing events have are beginning to occur retailers so far cutting 11 of their Workforce Amazon not increasing the number of seasonal hires it's looking for this seasonal sector layoffs in the tech sector jumped 86 percent for the first nine months of the year compared with the same period last year Walmart is cutting 200 Corporate jobs GE cutting 20 percent of its U.S Workforce Bed Bath and Beyond well I mean they're gonna go bankrupt here reducing its Workforce by about 20 Wayfair 5 Peloton uh another 600 job Cuts obviously Tech but even in financial services Goldman Sachs down one to five percent uh advertising companies like Google and snack snap plus snack snap planning uh layoffs so you're seeing the inflection points it just unfortunately is going to take a while to see these actually come to fruition hopefully they come through within the next uh four reports here before the December meeting but things might just take longer I do believe wholeheartedly though because quite frankly j-pow doesn't really know the impact of the tools he's using he's just gonna be really aggressive until he doesn't have to be really aggressive anymore so if we actually start seeing some of these cracks show up in the data which unfortunately lags and we have to have a lot of patience for it to see then we don't have to pay per hand we don't have to capitulate and we can hold through what could be another two three months of pain and hopefully we see some light at the end of the tunnel then they really believe that once we see that light at the end of the tunnel and we see that fed policy is working we're not going to be dragging the anchor along the bottom of the market anymore which right now we're a teeny tiny little bit above that bottom but I do think we're going to be bouncing around and range bound until we actually have good news on those reports I think it's coming it's just more hurry up and wait
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