저자: 미상 · 외국인
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ADP 고용보고서는 headline은 나쁘지만 임금상승은 저임금 업종에 집중된 따라잡기이며 고용 둔화 신호가 있다고 해석. JP모건 시나리오 중 75bp 인상+매파가 가장 유력하다고 보며 연준은 매파 기조를 유지해야 한다는 입장. 임금-물가 악순환 우려와 주거비(CPI 집값) 해소 여부가 향후 비둘기파 전환의 관건이라고 주장.
다듬은 글
here's one you want to watch all the way through before the Federal Reserve meeting because we've got thre before the FED meeting number one the disaster of the ADP jobs report that just came out number two what JP Morgan thinks the results will be in the stock market after the FED meeting so what to prepare for and number three we've got another update from Nikki leaks which is a reference to the person who basically gets text messages from the Federal Reserve and then tweets or write stories about them at the Wall Street Journal alright folks let's get into this the first thing that we have to look at is the ADP report that just came out initially when you look at it it looks like a complete disaster it looks terrible okay because it suggests we gain 239 000 jobs in October and that the annual wage gain was 7.7 now why is this terrible it's terrible because of something potentially known as the wage price spiral where if inflation is below the level of how quickly wages are going up so if inflation Falls to like 7.6 and wage gains are 7.7 percent you potentially start having a wage price spiral where the gains in wages become self-sustaining spiraling to the upside because workers demand more pay as prices have gone up for goods but then because workers demand more pay prices of goods have to go up and you self-sustain inflation and it never goes down okay absolutely terrible and on the surf surface it feels like oh no this is absolutely terrible we need to see this annual pay go down but when we actually dig deeper into the report we actually get what I consider some hope take a look at this we suggest or ADP suggests that hiring was not broad-based and we're seeing early signs of a Fed driven demand destruction only affecting certain sectors of the labor market now that's a big deal so they're basically saying hey hey fed fed numbers on the headline bad but we're starting to see all causing damage and then is breakdown we've lost jobs in a lot of sectors look at this minus 8 000 jobs for goods producing this is a shrinkage in jobs information down seventeen thousand ten thousand down Financial activity professional and business services education and Health Services minus minus minus for services lots of job losses here we're almost exclusively all of the jobs coming from right here folks f we compare this to a separate ADP report we could see that in most of the monthly earnings gains between 2019 and 2021 are occurring in the group The cohort of lower income individuals and ADP suggests this makes sense that lower income areas are seeing the largest the lowest paid workers are seeing the largest increases of pay in some cases as high as 42.5 or 42.4 percent pay increases since before the pandemic so you're really seeing that lower end really see dramatic strides in wage gains and the reason that's so important to differentiate is because if we gave the fed this report and just said hey annual pays up 7.7 we might have a Fed that needs to rug pull us because these numbers on the headline are scary it's only when we break them down and say wait a minute it's actually that lower income job sector they're the ones who are getting the jobs and they're probably the ones making up the bulk of the pay increase and on top of that we see that job gains for momentum and sort of these wage increases is starting to ebb in fact for year over year uh pay growth we saw an edging down of pay growth for job switchers from 15.7 in September to 15.2 percent in October but for people who stayed at their jobs were still consistent at that 7.7 percent these are high numbers here and if we look at median pay change by category look at where no surprise the biggest pay change category is so on the surface we have bad news but when we actually break it down we're like ah these are the lower paying jobs that are seeing most of the wage gains and they're the ones that have been catching up most since before the pandemic they really deserve to be getting the biggest pay bump because they've been so far left behind and so hopefully hopefully we have a Federal Reserve that will come fed time here today we have a Federal Reserve that either today or in the future starts realizing hey wait a second we need to talk about this wage price spiral and identify it as what it is it's just a one remaining sector catching up the rest of the jobs Market is starting to slow now I want to talk about JP Morgan we're going to talk about JP Morgan just a moment but keep that in mind the rest of the jobs Market is starting to slow it's just Leisure and Hospitality that's booming and quite frankly if you look at Uber if you look at American Airlines you look at what American Express is saying all of them are saying travel is still booming that will eventually get hit as people draw down on their consumers I don't know that you need higher higher fed funds rate to get people to stop traveling because here's the reality a higher fed funds rate isn't going to affect home like people at their homes and their ability to travel like a higher fed funds rate is going to affect a company that's trying to buy uh you know finance a plane or Finance new Machinery or whatever because most of those rates are directly tied to the FED funds rate with the consumer they just use their savings or they go from a high interest rate credit cards to a personal loan over at Sofi it's brilliant now let's realize that is a good thing we just need the FED to realize raising rates more is not going to stop Leisure and Hospitality spent we just have to let people spend their money get through the holiday and then realize we're in a recession and then that'll slow you don't actually have to be more aggressive now let's talk about JPMorgan right after a message from our sponsor established titles h was ed title dot com slash meet Kevian aid aid let's go so JPMorgan provides multiple outcomes for what could happen with the Federal Reserve let's take a look at some of these outcomes so first JPMorgan suggests there's a low likelihood of the FED coming out with a 50 basis point hike I agree I think this is almost a zero percent chance but they suggest If the Fed turns dovish now because for whatever reason the FED flips and realizes okay we've done enough let's slow they think markets could rally 10 to 12 percent now if the FED goes 50 and is hawkish which has a slight chance I I think almost no chance here but is slightly possible uh like already seeing a reduction in these rate hikes uh in the pace of rate hikes you could also see a substantial rally at the S P 500 I I don't think so I don't think we're seeing that until December next they think you could have a 75 basis point hike with a dovish press conference they think this is the second most likely outcome I personally don't think you're going to see it dovish Powell I think we've got two jobs reports and two CPI reports before they could dare have this credibility challenge of having a dovish Fed Reserve meeting and then getting really bad data over the next two reports right now the ADP report has some levels of optimism to it but again you don't want to go into two jobs reports and two CPI reports with a dovish meeting and then look like an idiot right so I feel like you have to be hawkish anyway dovish could lead the s p up two and a half to three percent whereas unfortunately a hawkish press conference and a 75 basis point hike which is deemed the most likely outcome could lead the S P 500 down one percent now you do have a 100 or a 100 basis point hike possible but probably unlikely but if we got a 1 100 basis point hike and a dovish Fed or 100 basis point hike and a hawkish Fed you'd probably see either a four and a half percent s p decline or six to eight percent decline it would be so unexpected it would almost be deemed a rug pull by markets now we're not expecting that though unfortunately we have Nikki leaks to give us a little bit of insight remember this is the guy who always writes about the Federal Reserve uh this is the guy who gets the text messages and what is Nikki leaks telling us well he tells us that the FED is trying to tighten Financial conditions and keep them tight notice keep them type is a tight is really important because you could tighten to a certain level and then continue to keep pressure by talking hawkishly right and Mr Nick here says that talk about the FED pivot can be confusing because there are multiple ways you could see a pivot you could see that raising rates rapidly to catch up is deemed somewhat of a pivot right you pivot to get aggressive like what we saw at the beginning of last year that would be a bearish pivot right then raising rates at a slower pace is also deemed to be somewhat of a pivot then the holding rates at a given level is deemed to be a pivot going from Raising to not raising at all and then there's another style of pivot which is just like the FED going to straight out bailout mode like a fourth pivot here right so there are many ways to look at a pivot usually markets bottom when the FED does the four thing which is when the U-turn and rather than just doing any of these they go okay we've done too much we've caused too much damage we need to support markets again like what you know we've seen historically by the Federal Reserve following Black Monday in 1987 uh 2003 at the end of the.com bubble February of 2009 December of 2018 and March of 2020.
those were historically the bottoms of the market and they aligned with fed uh massive u-turns u-turns not even just pivots like full on u-tunes anyway like think of a pivot in like basketball right you do it you dribble you got your dribble dribble and then just pivot like to the left to the right I think a U-turn is like okay I'm out of here you know full on full-on reversal anyway derivative is Market uh Nick here says it shows that investors expect the FED funds rates to to remain and three and a half percent dude we're not even at three and a half percent yeah that's crazy and expect it to remain at three and a half we're close but I expect it to remain at three and a half percent for the long run the highest level since 2014 as wages rise uh and people worry that higher inflation will end up being structural in other words sort of built in and it's self-sustaining so we'll see we've got a lot of reports coming up but here's my take I really want to see the FED make a clear distinction between the type of wage gains that we're getting but I'd also like to see a clear distinction in the type of inflation that we're getting that it's heavily based on the housing markets shelter inflation again if you subtract shelter inflation from CPI what do you get you get no inflation now I see some comments people pounds are like oh how could you subtract the single biggest thing if somebody's somebody's uh you know expenditures and say you see look in station zero because the way CPI is measured lags by 6 to 12 months rents are already coming down but CPI still sees them as trending up and CPI hasn't caught the inflection point yet so it actually means that real renters today on the open market are getting better deals on rent than they were a few months ago uh and CPI doesn't see it that way yet so hence why some people call it the CP lie now I know anecdotally a lot of folks like to come out and go I don't know man it seems like rents are only going up just look at the data the data says rents have already peaked we're not going to go debate that here we've debated that in plenty of other housing videos so my demands for today and expectations 75 basis point hike hawkish fit he's got a hawk he has to Hawk because otherwise we're just going to loosen Financial conditions and lead to a stock market rally he doesn't want a rally yet let that come in December be patient then I'd like to see this is my like to so I expect 75 and I expect Hawk but I would also like to see some clarity on concerns around a wage price spiral and insight into CPI shelter inflation and if we actually get those two things those two things could actually be deemed dovish and so you could see what sounds like a hawkish bed turned dovish and bullish for markets so I'm optimistic and hopeful but
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