저자: Kevin · 외국인
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중간선거 후 1년 S&P500 수익률은 역사적으로 대체로 양(+)이었고, 정당 지배 구도와 무관하게 평균 수익률이 양호하다고 분석. 다만 연준 금리정책, 인플레이션, 경기침체 리스크가 선거 효과보다 중요하며 연준은 주식에 우호적이지 않다고 경계. 전반적으로 1년 뒤 강세 가능성에 낙관적 태도.
다듬은 글
what could the elections do to the stock market well in this video we're going to review exactly that this video is brought to you by Mumu but more on them later okay let's get right into it here it is so first predicted which is a vetting website for making bets on outcomes for certain events like elections by the way I've had the CEO on the channel phenomenal company not sponsored by them but we'll say great company really really enjoyed their presence they're suggesting that the odds of Senate party control have actually been skyrocketing here uh to the to the highest levels that we've basically seen since the summer uh right here in October of 2022 so we're just now within a week of the election and uh we have almost certain Republican control of the Senate over 70 percent according to predictive and when we look at house control we've actually got house Republican Patrol uh troll as high as 90 percent according to predicted now that's not necessarily uh the the the best way to predict outcomes but I like looking at uh polling uh products where people are putting their money on the outcome I believe they have a better outcome than just the random polls that polling places do I mean who remembers 538 okay need to say no more anyway if we have Republican control of just one of them the policy implications are probably going to be quite simply put a legislative standstill in either chamber you get a legislative standstill across the board because remember in order for legislation to get passed it must go through the house it must go through the Senate and it must be signed by the president which means Republicans aren't going to get anything through unless the president is on board because well the president has to sign it or the president can veto it and there's not enough control for any kind of congressional super majority uh the courts can operate as they are now they're ruling on Trump's tax returns and affirmative action but they're not going to legislate uh although they may bench legislate with with some of the things that we've even seen in the last uh you know six months here but more importantly nothing happens in Congress and there's something interesting that happens when nothing happens in Congress uh in after elections when it comes to the stock market first is what happens after elections in general and then what happens when Republicans take over we've got data on both of these all right first take a look at this since 1960 this has been the s p 500's performance after elections okay notice how none of the years after an election this is 360 days right here so none of the years after an election have we actually seen negative Returns on the average again this is an average so that's not to say that there isn't a year it's just on average you don't see it whether it is a midterm election a presidential election uh or the average of of all elections you consistently see positive returns again no guarantees we could see a negative because this is just the average but look at how much your margin of safety is that we're likely to see a positive next year in the s p 500.
after uh 60 days almost in all cases you were up about five percent on the s p 500. and then your range of outcomes was anywhere between seven and a half to almost 10 percent here on average to 15 to about 22 percent so anywhere really between seven and a half to 22 potential average returns following elections okay that's pretty bullish that's a reason to actually be optimistic uh and and then you see this is volatility following elections I I would say that if we were to draw a you know sort of a an average or like a a median here it's very difficult to do so if I just look at the Gray Line I'd say the median vix would be somewhere around 20.
yeah which is an absolutely terrible right the vix is sort of your your fear index we're sitting at 25 right now so look at where we're sitting right now right now we're at the green line you know let me draw these lines straight so it's a little easier there we go perfect so right now we're at the green line I'd say the average over here in this gray area would be this red line probably also in that actually probably your overall average is somewhere around uh closer to 19 to 20.
so that's good we expect volatility to come down somewhere around 25 on average and on average the s p returns over the next year somewhere between five to twenty three percent now how about specific instances like is there a difference between when Republicans take over versus when Democrats take over yes there is and I'm going to reveal that based on citibank's Research right after our message from our sponsor today's sponsor is MooMoo one of the best trading platforms available MooMoo offers countless amazing trading features that help you take your trading game to the next level if you sign up using my link down below you'll get up to 15 totally free stocks each valued up to two thousand dollars MooMoo is also available for the Australian audience so make sure to click either the US link or the Australian link and what's neat about this is it gives you the opportunity to explore a new platform with amazing trading features and get free money for doing so not only 15 free stocks worth up to two thousand dollars each but also ten dollars in cashback for every 100 Apollo a dollar deposit that you make with MooMoo up to fifty dollars that's incredible so that means if you deposit five hundred dollars you will get 50 bucks totally for free and up to 15 free stocks each worth two thousand dollars this is a killer deal terms and conditions of course do apply but learn more about MooMoo by using my link now I have I have chart here Republicans controlled the Senate or the house we generally ended the year with a positive 1.4 percent or positive 3.5 percent roughly similar to the Democratic Senate although that was a little higher and Democratic house over here these are kind of nominal bumps right here by the end of the year so you're not expecting an immediate rally but look at the next year I don't really care if you're a Democrat or Republican these numbers are great your average return was between 17.7 percent all the way up to 23.8 percent no matter what happened now if you got a Republican president you actually had a slower end of the year but you had a bigger on average s p move thereafter if you had all Republican control you tended to have nearly a 30 percent one-year return incredible that's a substantially more than the Democrat control here although that would be in the one year out time frame now but what we're looking for is the Senate changing from D to R look at this okay Senate change from Democrat to Republican almost no move on average by the end of the year but about a 19.5 average s p return after a year that means if you have a a stock that's trading at a two times beta like a Tesla you could see a 40 average return in a year no guarantees obviously you know pick a single stock Anything Could Happen uh but that's incredible now house change from D to R also 19.9 within a year notice one thing nothing on the right side is negative and almost nothing is negative on the left side the left side again is till year end see that right here year end and then this is the year after all right what if you have gridlock versus a split House and Senate oh look doesn't even matter gridlock was great with an average return of 19 percent this is really exciting like these both of these charts create bullishness now if you want to look at segments individually I'm not going to break these down but you can you could just take a screenshot of that that's fine with me but let's look at some of the the sort of the bottom line that City provides here our underlying view is that the election effects will be secondary to the focus on Fed rate policy inflation and recession risk darn they have to buzz kill yes yes they do so I just want to be very clear uh even though I know probably you know 40 percent of people have already dropped off of the video that's their problem for not sticking around uh I I can't help it when people leave videos and miss good information but as bullish as this information seems we're still subject to what the freaking fed is up to and unfortunately that sucks because the fed's up to nothing great for stocks right now it's all about squeezing the market down and inflation has been relatively sticky unless of course you subtract shelter inflation which helps get our uh core inflation to zero which is phenomenal but you know unfortunately that's just not the way the FED looks at it if they shifted and started looking at it that way oh that would look good anyway we'll see uh additionally Citibank goes on to say here that media and entertainment semiconductors and materials are signaling more fundamental confidence under GOP control while energy and materials have outperformed alongside Democratic control Okay so you're not really going to have control either it's gonna be split right so I'm not too sure this this matters much since we're probably going to go to some sort of a form of a split here and the average return for the S P 500 in the year following the midterm election is 20 plus percent strong returns are evident regardless of party control we saw that and they view this as basically a positive tail risk rather than a core input for next year mostly because got the FED you're dealing with the FED you're dealing with Russia uh in Ukraine uh you're dealing with a lot of disasters right an ongoing environmental Focus has uh evolved and remained front and center the Russia Ukraine disaster is evolving you've still got the covet Zero Nightmare in China although you did have some bullishness that you know some unconfirmed rumored reports that hey maybe China's creating a committee to get out of their covet zero process but um I'd say overall interesting research certainly a reason to be bullish for the next year and I'm excited about that thanks for watching and folks we'll see in the next one bye
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