Bitcoin, Tesla ... False Sense of Security | Peter Schiff

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결론: 시장 하락 가능성과 마진콜 위험을 강조하며, 비트코인 지지선이 무너져 약세 전망이다. 연준 구제 관련: 연준이 시장을 살려도 마진콜로 청산된 트레이더는 회복되지 않으며, 3월처럼 고점 대비 크게 빠질 수 있다고 경고했다. 마진콜 위험: 신용거래로 주식을 사는 초보 트레이더가 많아 하락 시 마진콜 후 추가 입금도 위험하다고 봤다. 테슬라: S&P500 편입 기대로 선매수가 몰렸으나 편입 실패 시 지수 펀드 매도 압력 없이 '루머 매수·사실 매도'가 아닌 루머만 있었다는 점을 지적했다. 비트코인: 나스닥과의 상관관계가 금보다 훨씬 높다고 보았다. 금은 소폭 하락했지만 금광주는 상승 마감했다. 비트코인 지지선: 1만 500달러 지지선이 깨졌고, 그 아래 장기간 머문 만큼 이제 저항이며 다음 지지는 약 1만 달러이나 강한 지지로 보지 않는다고 밝혔다. 출연자 전망: 비트코인 약세 및 전반적 시장 조정 가능성을 경계하는 입장이다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. past performance is no indication of future success and by the way markets can drop significantly before the fed actually can work its magic think back to what happened in march remember how far the markets dropped before they bottomed so the same thing could happen again now sure if you just hold on throughout the whole ride and the fed bails you out well there's no problem although there is a problem for people who are utilizing margin there are a lot of traders out there who are buying these stocks on margin because they think stocks only go up and then when they go down and they get a margin call even if the stocks come back they may no longer own them when they do because if you don't have the money to meet your call your broker sells your stocks and i have a feeling that even if the fed does manage to resurrect the market it's not going to resurrect all the traders who died because they had a margin call they couldn't meet of course one of the only things worse than not meeting a margin call is meeting the margin call because what happens if you send more money into your account and then you get another margin call right because the margin call when you get your first margin call that's a pretty good on twitter he said that he didn't understand why getting snubbed by the s p why not being included in the s p 500 why that was bad for tesla of course i went into exactly why it was bad on my podcast on friday it would have been great if he would have listened to it i suggested that but i explained on that podcast that the reason was such a problem is because so many people had already bought tesla on the anticipation that it would go into the s p and once it gets into the s p now you have all these index funds that are forced to buy it from the people who front ran the inclusion so it was a buy the rumor sell the fact only there was no fact there was just a rumor and now they have to sell when it turns out that there is no fact and the rumor was false but again this is what happens when people who are not very experienced in trading start trading and they think they're a genius because they're making money and they don't realize that they're making money because so think about that that's a lot of risk and if you look at the recent trading correlations bitcoin is far more positively correlated with the nasdaq than it is to gold gold was down slightly today uh but barely and many of the gold stocks actually finished positive on the day even as bitcoin was down but you know a lot of people were again inexperienced novice people are in bitcoin and now they think oh there's a ten thousand dollar support you know i don't know i mean i mentioned on friday that the support really was about 10 500 and it broke and i mentioned the fact that the breaking of that number and the fact that bitcoin spent so much time below 10 500 and in fact it was at ten thousand six hundred when i recorded my last podcast but the fact that it had spent so much time below what i regarded as support to me meant that it was no longer support and i thought the next support line was around 10 000 and that's where we are but that is not strong support i don't look at that as being strong support at all