저자: JimRogers및진행자Michelle · 외국인
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결론: 짐 로저스는 인플레이션과 공급·수요 구조 변화를 근거로 원자재(상품) 강세를 전망하며, 비트코인은 투기 수단일 뿐 정부 규제 위험이 크다고 봄. 비트코인과 암호화폐: 로저스는 본인이 암호화폐를 사고팔아본 적이 없다고 밝힘. 비트코인이 6만 달러 수준이라는 언급이 있었음. 정부가 독점적 화폐 지위를 잃지 않으려 암호화폐를 금지할 가능성이 크다고 주장하며, 디지털 화폐는 결국 정부 화폐 형태로 갈 것이라고 봄. 비트코인은 현재 거래 수단으로 훌륭하지만 결제 수단으로는 기능하지 않는다고 함. 파월 발언 인용: 파월 연준 의장은 비트코인을 금과 유사한 투기 수단으로 봄. 로저스는 이를 감정을 상하게 하는 비교라고 반박했으나 현재 실제 결제 용도가 제한적이라는 점은 인정. 인플레이션: 대규모 통화 발행과 차입은 항상 인플레이션을 낳았다고 주장. 현재 교육, 보험, 엔터테인먼트 등 물가가 크게 오르고 있다고 봄. 정부는 인플레이션 수치를 축소할 유인이 있다고 지적. 원자재 투자 전략: 원자재 지수(상품 바스켓)를 매수하는 것이 자신의 방식이라고 밝힘. RJA(로저스 농산물 지수) 등 뉴욕증시 상장 지수를 언급하며, 금속·농산물·에너지 지수에 투자한다고 함. 본인도 금과 은 등 일부를 보유. 금·은 전망: 최근 2년간 금과 은이 많이 올랐으나 최근 몇 달은 조정 중이며, 조정 중 추가 매수를 희망한다고 함. 금·은 가격 상승이 인플레이션 기대와 연결돼 있다고 봄. 디플레이션 시나리오가 현실화되면 금·은·구리·곡물 등 모든 원자재를 매도해야 한다고 조건부로 언급. 공급·수요 전망: 공급은 몇 년 전만큼 증가하지 않고 감소하는 반면, 경제 성장과 통화 발행으로 수요는 증가 추세라고 봄. 이를 근거로 원자재 슈퍼사이클 가능성을 제시하며, 강세장은 공급·수요 불균형 없이는 불가능하다고 주장. 리스크: 연준이 인플레이션을 성공적으로 통제하고 구조적 디플레이션 압력이 우세할 경우 원자재 강세는 무효화됨. 정부의 암호화폐 규제가 비트코인 리스크의 핵심.
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i've never bought or sold any crypto currencies obviously i wish i had michelle i mean what's crypto bitcoins worth sixty thousand dollars or something today i wish i'd bought some of i wish i'd bought anything wish i bought ibm in 1914 etc etc uh i doubt it because historically if if bitcoin book of cryptocurrencies become successful most governments will outlaw it because they don't want to lose their monopoly every government in the world is working on computer money now including the us the chinese are there already and i cannot imagine that governments are going to say okay this is our crypto money or you can use their crypto money that's not the way governments work historically money is going to be on the computer it already is in china in china you can't take a taxi with money you got to have the money on your phone you can't buy ice cream so it's happening but i doubt if it's going to be somebody else's money history shows it will be government money so you would argue then that the the biggest threat to bitcoin which is now at over 63 000 is government regulation or government intervention yes if it becomes successful michelle as long as it's a trading vehicle and i know guys are making lots of money trading it it's a wonderful trading vehicle apparently but if it becomes a currency which is what the crypto people say they are and they will be i cannot imagine that any government or many governments in the world will say okay you can use our money or their money that's not what history shows all right well we do have of course uh central banks starting to pay attention to cryptocurrencies and bitcoin and digital currencies around the world to your point and powell is actually putting bitcoin and gold in the same camp let's take a listen to what he had to say about that we think of them more as crypto assets because crypto what people call cryptocurrencies they're really vehicles for speculation no one is using them for payments for example like the dollar what they're using them for is to speculate it's like it's a little bit like gold for you know for thousands of years human beings have have given gold this special value that it doesn't have from an industrial standpoint but nonetheless for thousands of years they've done that so bitcoin is much more like that and the cryptocurrencies are much more like that they're not they're not really being uh actively used as payments do you agree with that is it like a gold well it's just an offense to your sensibilities to put bitcoin and gold in the same camp no of course not uh anything that the world wants to use is found with me but he said the same thing i do the people are using it as trading vehicles which is exactly what it is so far if it becomes a currency then something else will change no there's no question that what he said about it's like i mean you cannot go down to the shop and buy bread with gold right now you cannot go down to the shop and buy bread with bitcoin either right now but history would indicate that silver and gold probably have a better future because they're not trying to compete with the dollar or the yen or something else something like that you know historic well you can increasingly uh use your bitcoin to buy a teslas and uh more and more assets is uh it's becoming uh more mainstream to use that as a form of payment and to receive it as a salary as well uh but you might want to focus on inflation because of course with this unprecedented stimulus there are a lot of concerns about inflation former treasury secretary larry summers is one of many sounding the alarm over inflation and the overheating economy now some is actually saying that the country has embarked on the least responsible macroeconomic policies that the u.s has had in the last 40 years how concerned are you about inflation and how do you position yourself accordingly well i know that always been the past if you print staggering amounts of money and borrow staggering amounts of money it leads to inflation it always has i don't see any reason that it won't this time i can already see that inflation is happening go down to the shop michelle you know education insurance just about everything entertainment just about everything prices are going up a whole lot governments lie about inflation and they have incentive to lie about it so they do no look out the window there's inflation whether we like it or not and it seems to be getting worse so what is your advice what is the best way to protect against this inflation or to position oneself to benefit from it well my way is to buy uh commodity indexes uh because by definition if cotton goes up if copper goes up that's inflation and if you own the commodity indexes you are you are participating you're part of it when you say commodity indices and focusing particularly on gold and silver does that mean that you advocate for buying gold and silver etfs or just physical gold and silver well i i have some some both but uh i there's some commodity indexes that i i put uh i i came up with they're listed on the new york stock exchange one is rja which is the rogers agricultural index it's a basket of 20 or so commodities that's what i meant by i'm talking about real commodities you can also buy the metals indexes the agricultural indexes the energy indexes that's my way of play because as i say if the price of oil goes up i own oil natural gas etc well right so jim much of the concern is like we have all of these fundamentals that would indicate that gold should go higher but yet it's not why do you think we're not seeing that yet michelle i'm confused as to what you're talking about ask kid go they'll tell you gold is up a lot in the last two years but you're kidding me silver's up a lot in the last couple of years not the last few months you know everything has corrections and reactions um listen don't ask me you should ask kitko but if what i see is the price of gold and silver went up a lot in the last what 19 months 20 months they're having a correction at the moment i hope i'm smart enough to buy more sometimes during this correction all right so jim a lot of the flow into commodities across the board is as we discussed linked to expectations of inflation but what happens if somehow it turns out that the fed does actually know what it's doing and somehow it does manage to keep the inflation at bay and it is indeed just a transitory spike as powell is saying it will be what happens in the scenario where the structural deflationary forces prevail and you actually don't get this major upswing or an overshoot in inflation what does that mean for all of the speculative investments and money flowing into commodities well obviously you should sell you should sell your silver you should sell your gold if what you just said comes true then by all means sell it all sell cotton sell copper sell everything maybe that's what's going to happen but i do also see supply and demand is changing in commodities uh the supply is certainly not booming like it did a few years ago and supply is going down demand seems to be going up as economies get stronger and stronger and as more and more money is printed so for you it's not just inflation that's driving a potential commodity super cycle it's based on real fundamentals of supply and demand oh no you cannot have any bull market without supply and demand being out of balance no matter what it is whether it's amazon or lead you've got to have supply and demand out of balance to have a bull market you
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