The Thing Is Holding the US Bubble Together - Peter Schiff | Inflation Has Defeated The FED!!

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결론: 인플레이션이 연준 예상보다 훨씬 크고 지속적일 것이며, 연준은 이를 막을 능력도 의지도 없어 금 가격이 급등할 것이라는 주장. 시장 기대 분석: 시장은 연준이 인플레이션에 맞서 금리를 예상보다 빨리 올리고 채권 매입을 조기 축소할 것으로 보며, 이것이 금 시장을 압박하고 있다고 진단함. 발언자는 시장이 두 가지 측면에서 모두 틀렸다고 봄. 인플레이션 전망: 인플레이션은 일시적이 아니라 장기간 지속되는 더 큰 상승의 시작이며, 과거 10~20년간 낮았던 인플레이션은 이상 현상이었다고 주장. 인플레이션이 낮았던 이유: 1998년 CPI 산정 방식 변경으로 인플레이션이 축소 집계되었고, 중국의 달러 수용 및 미국 국채 매입, 저가 소비재 공급이 통화 증발과 물가 상승 사이의 시차를 늘렸을 뿐 효과를 막지는 못했다고 설명. 연준 대응 한계: 연준은 2.5~3% 수준은 용인하고 일시성 여부를 확인하려 1년 이상 기다릴 것이므로 선제 대응에 실패할 것이라고 봄. 뒤늦게 대응하면 금리를 8~9%까지 올려야 하나 제로금리 상태에서 그것은 불가능하고, 국채 매각과 대차대조표 축소는 2008년보다 더 심각한 금융위기를 부를 것이라고 주장. 결론적 시나리오: 연준은 싸우지 않고 항복하며 인플레이션이 이길 것이고, 투자자들이 이를 깨닫는 순간 금 가격이 폭등할 것이라는 견해. 출연자 전망: 금 가격 급등 전망(기간 명시 없음, 장기 성격), 연준 무대응 및 인플레이션 장기화 전망. 구체적 목표가는 언급되지 않음.

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01. i think the other factor is that people still expect the fed to fight inflation especially if it ends up getting out of the comfort zone i mean maybe headlight inflation does come in at three three and a half four percent i think what everybody thinks is that well the fed is going to have to tighten in the face of you know that big a a uh you know overshoot right so i think the markets are also racing for the fact that you know maybe we're going to get more inflation than the fed is bargaining for and therefore the fed is actually going to tighten rates a lot sooner than they're now indicating because their current posture is based on inflation not getting too far above two percent even though they haven't specifically said like you know how high above it they're you know they're comfortable i think the markets are trying to get ahead of that by thinking you know it could be a lot more than they think and therefore the fed's gonna have to raise rates sooner than they're saying they may have to start you know tapering off their bond buying sooner and and so i think that's also scaring the gold market somewhat that the fed is not going to be as easy as the market thinks now i think the market is wrong on on on both counts right i mean i think that inflation is actually going to overshoot by a much bigger margin than pretty much anybody thinks i don't believe that it's temporary i believe it's the beginning of a protracted period of much greater increases in consumer prices i mean the fed tries to hang its hat on the fact that the last 10 years or so or 20 years we haven't had a lot of inflation and the fed says well that means that you know that's the new normal and we're never going to have it again right i think that was the aberration i think we're going to go back to normal and i think there were some you know some other factors that helped to mitigate the impact of inflation which is the expansion to the money supply on u.s consumer prices i mean one certainly was a cpi that was dramatically changed in 1998 and all of a sudden magically uh inflation disappeared after we rejiggered the cpi because we claimed that it was overstating inflation so we had to fix it and i think now it understates inflation so that's part of it but a lot of it had to do with china and their willingness to accept our dollars and exchange for their products and just buy our treasuries and supply our market with all sorts of consumer goods so there were these you know extenuating factors that i think made the lag between printing money and increasing prices longer than normal it didn't stop it i mean we're gonna see the impact we're just seeing it later than we might have in the past but so the other thing though that i think the markets have got wrong is not only is inflation going to be bigger than they think and not be transitory but the fed's willingness or even ability to do anything about it really doesn't exist i mean the fed could talk all at once about how it's going to fight inflation if it if it was wrong and inflation became a bigger problem i just don't buy it i don't think the fed is going to do that they can talk a tough game right they can bark but they will not bite because think about it from a practical point of view they've already said two and a half percent inflation that's not going to worry them right a little bit above maybe three and they've also said they want to wait at least a year they're not just going to look at a blip up in inflation they want to make sure that the inflation isn't transitory before they take action that's what powell's already said right they they want proof they're just not going to look at it they're just going to assume it's transitory unless they're proven wrong so let's say we they wait and as they wait the inflation just gets bigger and bigger and bigger because they didn't act preemptively and now a year goes by and maybe inflation is six percent seven percent and it's headed higher and now the fed is like okay we were wrong uh it wasn't transitory we got an inflation problem well now they got a bigger problem in trying to solve it because now they have interest rates still at zero what are you gonna do if inflation is five six percent move interest rates up to 25 basis points 50 base points that's not gonna do anything they got to move interest rates up to maybe eight percent nine percent i mean it's not even a possibility that they can go anywhere near that amount they're going to have to start unloading us treasuries and shrinking the balance sheet they would create a far worse financial crisis than anything we took place in 08 if they actually had to fight inflation because they waited too long and let it get out of hand so my thinking is they will not fight inflation they're going to surrender inflation is going to win without a fight and so when people understand this that inflation is going to be much greater than the fed things or anybody thinks and it's permanent and the fed is never going to do anything about it there is no way to put out the fire uh i mean gold will just go ballistic when people you know finally connect those dots you