저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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연준의 과도한 통화 발행과 저금리가 인플레이션과 자산 거품을 키우며 미국 경제를 해치고 있다는 주장이 핵심이다. 결론적으로 달러 신뢰가 무너지면 금이 다시 주요 준비자산이 될 것이라는 전망을 제시한다. 금 가격은 그린스펀 시절 연준이 정책 신호로 참고하던 지표였으나 현재는 아무도 신경 쓰지 않는다고 지적한다. 그린스펀은 금이 300달러 아래면 너무 긴축, 400달러 위면 너무 완화라고 봤다는 설명이다. 2,000달러 금도 의미가 크며 3,000~4,000달러까지 갈 수 있다는 취지의 발언을 했다. 재정·통화 문제의 원인으로 연준이 가장 큰 책임이 있다고 본다. 연준이 정부 지출을 화폐화해 금리를 인위적으로 낮췄다는 것이다. 다만 의회와 대통령, 유권자, 사법부도 책임이 있다고 덧붙인다. 1913년 연준 설립과 소득세 도입을 가장 큰 전환점으로 꼽으며, 이후 인플레이션세와 소득세가 미국의 생활수준과 성장을 갉아먹었다고 주장한다. 정책이 거품을 만들고 터지면 더 큰 거품으로 메우는 악순환이 반복된다고 본다. 연준이 과거 잘못을 인정하지 않는 한 정책 전환이 어렵고, 결국 달러 붕괴 후 강제적으로 변화가 올 것이라는 입장이다. 달러 붕괴 이후 미국이 금본위로 돌아갈지에 대해서는, 미국이 먼저 그럴 유인이 가장 적고 다른 국가들이 달러 대신 금을 다시 쓰기 시작하는 쪽이 먼저일 것이라고 본다. 1970년대 달러 약세 때 금이 35달러에서 850달러로 오른 사례를 근거로 든다. 출연자 전망: 연준 정책 실패로 인플레이션과 달러 약세가 이어지고, 금이 장기적으로 상승할 것이라는 강세 입장이다.
다듬은 글
do you think federer paul watches the price of gold and if he does what is the price of gold whispering or screaming at him right now well he's never mentioned that he watched it you know this was my most recent podcast that you're referring to and so people if you don't know about my podcast you know check me out uh at shiftradio.com is podcast my youtube channel shift report we put them up there as well but i was watching greenspan interviewed on cnbc and specifically he told cnbc that his greatest concern was inflation that's what he was worried about but it's ironic because that's also powell's concern but for the opposite reason pal says we don't have enough inflation we want more and greenspan is like i'm worried we already have too much and so if if greenspan is right and you know why should greenspan be any less credible i mean he used to be the fed chairman so why is in his view uh just as likely to be correct as the current chairman powell but if if greenspan is right then powell is just throwing gasoline on the fire that uh greenspan is already concerned about but the part about gold is i remember when greenspan was fed chairman and gold was trading at about 350 an ounce right now we're you know just under 2 000 right 1950.
but he used to talk about 300 and 400 gold and what he used to say publicly was that if gold price went down to 300 he knew that he was too tight and if gold got up towards 400 he knew he was too loose and so he would use the price of gold as a signal a market signal as to whether or not he had the right monetary policy so if you saw the price of gold going up too much hey i'm creating too much inflation i better raise rates tighten policy and if gold went down oh we're too tight right so he was looking at gold but ever since greenspan left nobody gives a damn about the price of gold and so i don't think uh a pal even cares or even appreciates the significance of two thousand dollar gold and i don't think he's worried about three thousand dollar gold or four thousand dollar gold he should be i think if he knew as much about as greenspan does i think greenspan has a much better understanding of economics and money than any of the uh fed chairmen that have uh you know succeeded him so i i think his you know his uh outlook is has actually a lot more credibility than either bernanke yellen or powell peter is the money printing the root cause of all the economic and social problems we see today like the increasing wealth gap the ever rising real inflation and big government etc well i mean it's hard to say that it's the fed and inflation that is to blame for everything but it's certainly a very large contributing factor but obviously you know it takes you know two to tango uh and so the fed has had a lot of help from the government in general congress and the president they have passed a lot of laws now you can argue that a lot of this spending might not have taken place but for the willingness of the fed to finance it to monetize it to artificially uh restrain interest rates so the fed has done its part but of course congress didn't have to act so recklessly and irresponsibly just because the fed was pouring alcohol they didn't have to drink it uh so the government has has done a lot and of course you know the public you know you know there we the public voted for these guys uh so we can't let the american public off the hook for their share of the blame right so there's plenty of blame to grow around but i do think that the principal uh uh blame would go on the fed i think that because the fed could have done its job and really reigned in a lot of the other branches in fact i actually blame the judicial system too because a lot of what the congress has done a lot of the government spending and programs and regulations are actually unconstitutional and a lot of this stuff should have been struck down by the courts but these guys are asleep at the switch they don't really understand the constitution they don't apply it uh to the government the way the founding fathers intended so you know so many different uh uh you know aspects of our government have let us down the judiciary uh the legislation the executive all three branches and then of course the federal reserve which isn't even a branch it's really independent uh so yeah i mean it's been a real disaster and probably if we can get rid of one a year uh it'd be 1913 because that's not only when we got the federal reserve but we also got uh the income tax and so working hand in glove both the the inflation tax and the income tax have really undermined uh america's standard of living economic growth stature in the world so it's really unfortunate that we we went down that path of course the road to hell was paved with good intentions i don't believe that uh there was any uh it was a devious plot uh but unfortunately you know every time you give the government some power they abuse it and uh so they've had a hundred years now to abuse this power more than a hundred years and it's not just that you know yeah they got the camel's nose in the tent now it's not just the camel we got a whole herd of camels in this tent and it you know stinks pretty bad okay uh you know that there's often the phrase that the the fed would put the punch bowl in front of wall street and they can't take the punch bowl away now we sort of see the punch ball in front of main street will that punch bowl will it ever be able to be taken away from main street well you know i've been describing it now not as a punch bowl but as a swimming pool i mean that's how much punch is there and i don't even know there's any punch in there at this point it's pure alcohol that we're swimming in you know and yeah it's everywhere um but no they i mean they can't unless they want to do the responsible thing and admit of course that everything they've done in the past was reckless and irresponsible and wrong see the fed can't do the right thing without admitting that everything else it's done in the past has been wrong but it's it's very reluctant to do that if it even understands that at all i mean that's the problem you know the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result all the fed ever does is create inflation they print money uh they lower interest rates and what does that get us it gets us a bubble that pops and now they have to blow up a bigger bubble that pops and they have to try to blow up a bigger one but in the meantime they are undermining the the actual health of of the us economy right they're they're making the problems they're trying to solve worse with the very policies that they continue to implement because they refuse to admit or they don't even understand that they're lighting the fires that they're trying to put out with the same material that set the fires right it's gasoline right they and and so i don't know if they're ever going to realize this until they just get burned which is what's going to happen but unfortunately it's the country you know it's not just these uh wildfires out west but i mean the whole country is going to be torched by by this monetary policy when when the dollar crashed peter do you think gold will return as the primary monetary reserve and and i'm asking this because fiat currencies they give governments the unconstrained ability to print as much money as they want spend as much money as they want why would politicians and governments want to give that up well it's not about wanting to give it up it's going to be about having to give it up right i mean that's you know uh you know when they're baxter to the wall and they don't have a choice that's what's going to happen i mean once the public loses confidence in the fiat monetary system how do you reinstill that confidence i mean gold is the answer and what i think is going to happen before the united states goes on a gold standard because obviously i think we have the least amount of incentive to do that right because you know the dollar is being used instead of gold so but what i think is going to happen is all the other nations of the world that have been using the dollar instead of gold will just start using gold again instead of the dollar go back to the way it was before the dollar replaced gold as the primary reserve and again you have to remember the reason that we were able to convince the world to switch from gold to dollars is because the dollar itself was not only backed by gold but redeemable on demand in gold so the dollar was as good as gold in fact it was better because you could take your dollars and then loan them to the us government by buying treasuries and now you got interest right which you didn't get on your goal so they had the best of both worlds they had gold and they had interest uh and so this is what happened but of course we abused that privilege and we started printing too much money and then we defaulted on our commitment to pay real money for our ious to pay gold for federal reserve notes uh the the dollar was marked down but it wasn't you know knocked out i mean the world continued to accept dollars and hold them as the reserve just at a lower exchange rate than the one that prevailed previously you know there was a big drop in the dollar during the 70s against the deutsche mark uh the swiss franc the yen gold of course was revalued or as the dollar went down gold went from 35 an ounce to 850.
uh you know oil prices went from three dollars an hour to 30 a barrel because we devalued the dollar uh by severing its link from gold and so now we had a dollar back by nothing you
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