저자: The Economic Countdown · 외국인
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what easy what is easy to stock up on is gold and gold is a is a store of value it has historic relationships to all these other commodities so if you're worried about a big increase in prices because of the valuation of money and you want to protect your long-term purchasing power you would be buying gold so gold should be reacting even faster than other commodities and so it hasn't thus far but i think it will i i know what you're thinking i'm going to say it for you gold hasn't risen because what bitcoin has risen right is that is that is that the other answer that you were you were you were thinking or no well you know i don't know how much uh buying that might have gone into gold went into bitcoin instead yeah um i i think it's you know very little you know as far as the size of the gold market maybe it's significant to the bitcoin market but i think it's kind of irrelevant to the gold market what i do think may be happening though with the bitcoin story which is centered on but to the extent that some people that really don't understand what gold is who maybe are in the institutional uh space maybe they would be buying gold but because they believe that maybe gold's future is being impacted by bitcoin and that well maybe gold won't go up because bitcoin will steal its thunder it's possible that some institutions that otherwise might be buying gold maybe are not doing it i don't think they're buying bitcoin either uh but to the extent that they think bitcoin may replace gold it may be a reason why they're not buying gold and so maybe they're buying some other commodity or maybe they're buying stocks or something else uh but ultimately bitcoin is going to collapse and any uh demand that it might have siphoned away from gold uh you know is going to return to gold i mean the bitcoin uh story it's it's one of a bubble it's you know a modern-day tulip mania uh it's fool's gold i've said that from the beginning it doesn't matter that the price has gone up i mean i've never said that the bubble couldn't get bigger or that the price couldn't rise my only point is that the price is unsustainable because bitcoin itself has no value it has no use yes if people believe the price is going to go up and they're willing to buy it well the price will go up uh but it only goes up if more people make the same mistake and are willing to pay an even higher price than the last fool well eventually the supply of fools runs out and the greatest fool ends up as the bag holder and maybe we're very close to that point right now i don't know i mean i'm not you know i'm not clairvoyant but i know a bubble when i see one i got plenty of experience and if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck you know it's a duck and and bitcoin is the biggest duck of them all what what if i told you this bubble is just going to keep getting bigger would you would you still would you participate well you know it's hard to participate in a bubble when you know it's a bubble you know it because it's if you don't know well then you could buy but the problem is you never know when the bubble is going to pop so it's difficult there probably are i mean i think there are two types of people that are in bitcoin what about what about what have i paid you what have i said here's a bunch of bitcoin can you manage it for me you're a fun manager you're what if i can you can you can you manage my bitcoin what would you would you participate with yeah i would like i would just like i would be tempted just to sell it as soon as i had it so it's like you know as i said i think there are two kinds of people that are in bitcoin they're the people who don't know it's a bubble and don't know it's worthless and then there are other people who do know but they don't care because you know the price is going up and they figure they're going to get out before the bottom drops out but i think that's a lot harder to do i mean people think that they could get out but i think most people are going to be trapped i think when it finally collapses it's going to be very quick and you know the market has been conditioned right every time bitcoin drops in the past it comes back right so they've convinced the hodlers to close their eyes and turn out the fud and so bitcoin crashes and it comes back and it crashes and it comes back so people now expect that every time it crashes it's going to come back so what happens when it crashes and then it doesn't come back and crashes again and then crashes again but people are stuck holding and hoping ultimately that's what's going to happen i mean all the money that people make in bitcoin is simply going to be a function of the money other people lose there is no actual value being created by bitcoin you can only make the money that other people lose that's the nature of a ponzi or a pyramid and that's exactly what this is it's got characteristics of both rolled into one yeah well okay so i you tweeted something very interesting recently which i didn't know before because everybody i talked to have told me that institutional money has been going into bitcoin and that's one of the primary reasons why the prices have gone up and i don't know if you agree or disagree with this well i think some institutional money has gone in obviously there's been a couple of hedge funds that have gotten involved and you know a couple of companies are involved but as a percentage of all the institutions that are out there it's tiny but i think that it is being blown out of proportion uh certainly by the bitcoin community that wants to highlight this to try to help drive this narrative that all the institutions are coming and so you better buy right they're trying to pump it up i think cnbc in particular because i think they've been bought and paid for by grayscale which is their largest advertiser and so i think their coverage is completely one-sided and biased and they're trying to spin this false narrative that all these institutions are are buying into it in order to you know to pump up the price so i think the people who are in can can get out i mean that is one of the things that if you are big into bitcoin you need to make a lot of noise you need to be very public about the fact that you own it and you have to keep touting it because you need to get more people in because that's the only way that the price will go up i mean a stock could go up because the company does well because their earnings are going up because they they increase their dividends or a commodity could go up if there's you know there's more demand for that particular commodity because it's needed for something in particular um you know like silver let's say there's more demand in the automotive industry or now maybe uh you know in some certain uh businesses now needed more or maybe there hasn't been as much mined so there are different things that can happen with supply and demand but bitcoin there it doesn't generate any earnings it's not used for anything so the only demand comes from speculators and so everybody who owns it has a built-in incentive to try to encourage more people to enter the market as a speculator so everybody that owns it has to talk their book and they have to attract in new people to buy because that's the only way they can sell my final comment on bitcoin we'll move on to something else doesn't that what you just said doesn't that simplify the equation for you because if all it is is a demand-driven product it all and you know that there's a big number of people like a large community of people who would almost religiously buy into this product that's all you need that's a bulk case right there isn't it because they're not going away anytime soon well it depends they're buying into a dream it's a myth that you're going to get rich simply by huddling bitcoin now yes people who did buy bitcoin early on and wrote it all the way up they did get rich the people that get in early are the ones that get enriched it's the people that get in late that enable those riches that get out poor now there are a lot of people that think that buying now is still buying early this is preposterous anybody who thinks they're getting it on the ground floor or anywhere near the ground floor everybody knows about bitcoin everybody's talking about bitcoin so you're not stumbling in on something brand new when you're buying it now i mean in fact i was watching on the cnbc yesterday and just about every single anchor all day you was convinced you got to buy you can't lose even if the price goes down it'll come back up it's a no-brainer buy it you know it you know you're all going to get rich uh so this this is this is how bubbles end this is not how they begin you know we're much closer to the top than the bottom uh not only in in price probably but in time i mean this is like a parabolic look at that move up that we've had right i mean this is not a sustainable uh move there's never been a market that's moved up like this that hasn't come crashing down including bitcoin look what happened to bitcoin in 2017. it went way up and then it was down 70 percent in 2018. you
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