저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
S&P500(SPY) 하락 조정 후 436 지지 여부가 관건이며, 강세추세는 유지 중이나 단기 눌림 가능성이 높다고 봄. 430 재테스트, 423 갭 메움 가능성을 언급. 나스닥100(QQQ)도 355~371 박스권 내 조정 가능성, 러셀2000은 184~188 박스권 돌파 방향을 주시. 비트코인은 28,000 돌파 시 강세 전환 가능성, 엔비디아·테슬라는 강세 흐름이나 단기 눌림 후 고점 경신 가능성 언급. 금융·에너지 섹터는 약세 신호로 해석. 특정 확정 예측보다 가격 레벨 기반 시나리오 위주.
다듬은 글
is the stock market sell-off just beginning down point five two percent and we did close just below the 5vma and we did gap down and close above support at 436 but keep in mind the market was closed yesterday so I wouldn't necessarily trust this Gap yes it's still a gap but if we traded yesterday there would likely be no session Gap so I wouldn't put too much attention on that Gap above so from here spy is either going to bounce or die and if we don't bounce from 436 we're likely coming all the way back down to the breakout just below 4 30.
as I've told you many times because this is a bull Trend even if we come back down to 4 30 it's still possible we bounce off there after forming another higher low before the next higher high so yes it is likely we will continue this pullback especially if we break support at 436 and the most likely retest is that breakout at 4 30.
that's also a retest of this be in that support Zone and if we break that support at 4 30 we're likely coming down to close the gap just below 423. it is very unlikely this Gap at 423 is going to remain unfilled that is very likely where we are going to see the stock market correction taking us to it's just a matter of how we're going to get there and what time frame we're going to get there in don't just assume we have to go straight down to that Gap and fill it now we could easily fill that Gap later in the summer so right now we have all eyes on support at 4 36 and if we break 436 we'll be looking for 430 and the upside resistance remains 441 and if we break through all of that resistance in the low 440s we will be looking for those higher targets at 4 40 am 451.
this is still a bull Trend until it's not so respect the fact that we have a powerful bull Trend even though in the short term we are likely due for that pullback also notice today we had extremely low volume so we're just not getting high volume selling and that could be a sign that we may not be going too much lower on the NASDAQ 100 triple Q news we were down 0.28 today and we are continuing the sell-off that we started on Friday but as you can see from the price action we didn't even close below the 5 EMA the most likely Target for the Triple cues during a pullback will be a retest of the breakout at 3 555 so just like spy even if we get a pullback to that level it's still possible we Bounce from a higher low and continue this bull Trend that will also be around the 20 daily moving average if we continue to sell off quickly and get there in the next couple of days so the critical resistance in the triple cues is right here at 371 and the critical downside support remains 355.
that is a very wide range of price action between 355 and 371 so if you're going long at these levels you should be managing a risk around the 5 EMA which is currently right around 365. if we start to break through resistance at 371 we're likely going all the way up to 393 and I don't think the Bulls are going to push straight to that level without a significant pullback or correction which means if we break through the support at 355 we're going to be looking for critical supported 347 and below that we could fill the Gap at 333 or at least test the support of the breakout 337 so keep in mind the triple cues are leading the way higher and they are likely due for a correction or a pullback so I do think we will see some more selling in the short term on the Dow Jones we were down point seven three percent and we closed down below the 5 VMA and we also close down below the support at the breakout at 3 41 but we do have a bull Trend so any of these levels could still be higher lows before the next higher high if we start to balance we're looking for Gap fills below 343 and that price Target at 346 and we have critical support down here at the rising 20 daily moving average and breakout level at 336.
if at any point we break below 336 look for The Gap fill below right around 332. on the Russell 2000 iwm ETF we were down 0.44 and we're still in the trading range between 184 and 188 and the break of this range is likely going to tell us the next leg in the small caps below 184 I think we come all the way back down to 180 and if we break 188 I think we continue the bull run to 1 95 until we get that breakout below support or above resistance trade the range between 184 and 188 and then once we get that breakout you'll have a much better idea of where the next leg in the small caps is coming from on the arcade ETF we were down 0.11 and we still have the bull Trend in e simply need to break the resistance at 44.5 and then we can reach our next price Target higher just below 46.
critical support remains 43 and 42. on the Vex Vapor down 2.26 percent and the vix is still telling us we're in a bull Trend while it's trading below 20 and especially while we're trading all the way down here below 15. if we start to get any spike in volatility during a pullback I expect to see the vix spiking back up towards 18.
on bitcoin we're currently up about five percent and Bitcoin is trying to get a bull break out above 28 000 which is the higher high breakout we need to see to tell us that Bitcoin is done with this correction remember Bitcoin was in a downtrend so if we break out to a higher high that is breaking the downtrend and that could be telling us Bitcoins ready to go back into a bull market and all of this is is happening on increasing volume which you can see down here at the bottom of the screen so you can get a lot more bullish in Bitcoin if it can start to close above 28 000 you can also manage a risk at the breakout down here at 27 000.
on Amazon stock we're up about a quarter percent today closing down below the 5 VMA and this could be a bull flag between about 123 and 128. the bull breakout above 128 brings us to our Target tire at 133 and 134 and critical support remains 123 and 121. if we break 121 we could go through . on Nvidia stock we're up 2.61 today with another higher high breakout on the daily chart and we're clearing the break of that resistance and that price Target at 427 and my next upside Target is all the way up here at 448.
this is still one of those stocks I tell you it's not worth trying to short it because it's so bullish and a lot of people are trying to short it which just causes more short squeezes so above 427 you can now use it as your risk level for the price Target at 448 but keep in mind if we break 427 we could see see the elevator back down towards 398 so that's a lot of risk to take if we break down below 427.
on Tesla stock we were up 5.34 today with a very bullish day slicing right through that resistance at 268 and our next upside price Target is just below 296 but I doubt we're going straight there without a pullback pullback at this point could bring us back down towards 249 and the Gap closed at 2 35 and we are still bullish while we're Above This breakout at 2 30 so even if we start to get a pullback we're likely going to form a higher low and continue to higher prices so continue to follow the trend and the price action which is telling us bull Trend and bullish prices which means if we start to get a pullback it could be very impulsive because we have gone up in a straight line but that will be our higher low formation before we put in the next higher high so while I do not suggest chasing Tesla at these prices if you're long-term holding it there's still nothing on this chart that says you need to sell it if we start breaking down below 230 and breaking the bull Trend then we can get a lot more bearish but we are long ways away from knowing if that's going to happen on Apple stock we were at point zero five percent and apple is struggling around this resistance at 185 and if we push through it we could reach that next Target just below 190.
we still have the bull Trend with e 5 EMA we're looking for support at 182 179 and 177. if we break all of that support we're likely going to see a full-blown correction which could bring us back down towards 167. on the financials we were down 1.19 today getting that rejection from the 200 daily moving average which is exactly why I'm telling you in the financials wait for confirmation of a break above the 200 daily moving average before getting bullish we can't have a bull Trend while we're below the 200 daily moving average so wait for a confirmation and a break above that level before getting bullish and right now the critical support is going to be this breakout at 32.75 on the Industrials we were down 1.14 today breaking down from that rejection at 106 which means we could be coming back down towards 103 to 102.
the healthcare sector was down about 0.52 percent still holding above the 5vma as it's developing a bull Trend the longer it can continue to close above 131. the energy sector was down 3.09 percent continuing the rejection of that breakdown of the trading range and from that breakdown I think it's likely we could be going down and fill the Gap at 73.
so jumping back over to the S P 500 I think in the short term we are still looking for a deeper pullback especially towards that breakout it's by 4 30 but nothing is more important than following the price action in the chart while it's likely we're going to continue to pull back and put in a higher low if we start to balance immediately and we continue into this bull Trend it's possible we just continue to go to higher prices before we get this correction while I don't think that is the most likely scenario that doesn't mean I'm correct so you need to make sure you understand it is still possible we go higher before we go any lower so let the price action do all the talking and continue to watch support and right now we need to watch whether or not spy can hold this level at 436 so continue to stay unbiased and let the pricey se critical levels don't forget my own trade alert service called bang trade alerts and I also have the stock show Discord so if you want to you can click ]
Comments 0