저자: Mr.FIREDUpWealth · 외국인
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팔란티어 실적 발표 직후 시간외 주가 14% 급등. 상업부문 매출 32%·133% 성장, AIP 고객 수 증가, 조정 FCF 흑자 등 긍정적 펀더멘털 강조. 다만 EV/NTM 매출 약 16배로 동종 대비 프리미엄. 단기 $12~$21 변동 가능성 제시, 현재가($819 부근)에서는 신규 매수보다 보유 의견, 스윙 트레이딩은 모멘텀 활용 가능하나 급락 위험 경고.
다듬은 글
what's going on with paler stock as I'm talking the stock is up 133% after hours just reported earnings this video is going to cover the highlights and some opinions of where I think the stock could go in fact paler stock is now up 14.35% it was pretty much flat going into earnings so it's up about 15% year-to date over the past year the stock is up over 100% basically 115% now at first glance you would expect a really strong beat to be at 14% but the EPS actually 8 cents in line and then the revenue 68.3 5 million that's up about 20% year-over year and it beat by 5.55 million now this part is Big commercial Revenue grew 32% year-over-year and 133% quarter over quarter to$ 284 million of course if you understand Palance here commercial is where the growth is going to be in the government space pal here is pretty established in fact the company's been around since May of 2003 so this company's over 20 years old and artificial intelligence is the Focus here AIP the customer count grew 35% year-over-year adjusted income from operations 209 billion that's representing a margin of 34% cash and cash equivalent $3.7 billion that's very strong an adjusted free cash flow 305 million that's a 50% margin so on the 2024 Outlook us commercial Revenue has a growth rate of 40% so you can see that this is accelerating and most of this is going to be from AI so this just came out this is the annual letter from the CEO Alexander karp and part of the reason the stock is so bullish after hours is because of this letter it starts out it says our expansion and growth as both a company and an organization has never been greater now it goes on to talk about 68 million increase of 9% that number isn't really all that mind-blowing but it is accelerating back the other direction and I think what it's telling you is that the next few quarters could be pretty good and we talk in this channel quite a bit about how you have to drown the noise out especially if you're a long-term investor analysts news CNBC headlines it can be very overwhelming and confusing especially for newer investors and really for investors who are thinking long term 6 hours ago stay away says City about paler stock ahead of earnings so literally saying stay away get out of the stock here it is up 14% after hours back to the CEO letter our results reflect both the strength of our software and the surging demand that we're seeing across Industries and sectors for artificial intelligence platforms including cluding large language models that are capable of integrating with the tangle of existing technical infrastructure that organizations have been constructing for years after nearly two decades of investment and we talk about companies like crowd strike built in the cloud for the cloud really builts around AI since Inception this is another company that really has been built for AI since Inception so after nearly two decades of investment we have positioned ourselves as a fundamentally new software business and our results reflect this on ongoing transformation and you can see the nice ramp up this is total revenue from 2019 to 2023 so very positive here us Commercial Business continues to be a significant driver of our growth a trend that we expect to continue and this if you're looking for growth in Palance here this is going to be the primary focus us commercial Market our Revenue increased 70% year-over-year to 131 million in Q4 2023 that's from 77 million the year before bringing our total us commercial Revenue in 2023 to 457 million and a huge ramp up here this is commercial Revenue us commercial revenue from 2019 to 2023 that's where the growth is AI Palante artificial intelligence platform can now be up and running in as little as a few hours for 2024 as a result of our sustained and growing profitability we now see a path towards 800 million to a billion dollars in adjusted free cash flow we remain committed to building a business that will survive and thrive in any type of macroeconomic environment as of the end of 2023 we maintained $3.7 billion in cash we talked about that earlier and going back to this article here on cmbc paler has been rolling out its AIP artificial intelligence platform carp said the company carried out nearly 600 Pilots with the technology in 2023 up from fewer than 100 in 2022 that's exponential growth this is huge right here last quarter Palencia reported its fourth straight quarter of profitability that means it's now eligible for inclusion in the S&P 500 of course if it gets included in the S&P 500 the stock is going to go higher so in Q3 pal here gave us a business update and it said back then AIP boot camps 140 organizations by the end of November now we're going to get an update on this probably in the earnings call which is going to happen here shortly the thing about this if you understand sales Cycles so I used to work in software for about a decade sales Cycles take time so if they're getting boot camps in November here we are early February you could see some pull through especially the next couple quarters the back half of 2024 and so on in fact here it is I went and got this I'm editing back in the video 465 plus organizations participated in boot camps this number is accelerating you're going to see these sales Cycles take some time this is why the stock is up excitement about the future especially around Ai and AIP I'm editing this video updating this in the the deck just came out here are the 2023 Q4 highlights you can read through this pause if you'd like this gives you a great snapshot of the earnings you can see the Stock's disc crushing after hours up 14% let's look at some metrics here then we're going to look at a chart and then I'll give you my thoughts on the stock where it might go now looking at growth this is not going to be updated we were at 16% now closer to 20% and the expectation was basically that around 20% now paler is a software is a service company and if you want to learn more about paler we were the very first YouTube channel to cover paler six months before they went public they did a direct listing not an IPO but a direct listing back in 2020 so there's several videos out there I'll put some cards up at the end you can go look there's one video in particular that talks about AIP and if you want to do some extra due diligence on Palante here that'd be a great video to watch after this one and if these types of videos are helpful and if you're new here so since this is a software as a service company we generally like to look at specific metrics and their peers so we can certainly look at things like PE ratio it's good that it's profitable because a lot of SAS businesses aren't profitable and don't have a PE ratio but before this earnings you had something like a 250 247 PE forward about 196 and I think if you adjust that with tonight's earnings it's going to be roughly in this area maybe a little bit lower now you can also look at things like price to sales that's going to be a 17 and the Fords probably closer to 15 the metrics that we generally want to look at for cloud SAS software of service recurring Revenue the first one I like to look at is EV NCM Revenue now before tonight's earnings it was traded at about 14.5x so if you add 13 14% to that it's roughly 16 evtm Revenue so for comparison snowflake is around 20 you got crowd strike in the 181 19s data dogs kind of up in those same areas in fact after the bump after earnings you're going to have really six companies in the SAS world that are going to be more expensive than paler you're going to have snowflake crowd strike data dog Cloud flare mongod DB and zscaler so paler is going to be next after those six and then gitlabs just right behind that now you also want to look at rule of 40 paler is roughly in that 40 range you want it 40 or higher if you look at the growth in that rule 40 to the EVN CM Revenue you know pal seere is expensive it's it's a bit of a premium a lot of people are excited about the future of the business of course and then you look at get things like free cash flow net dollar retention the numbers overall are strong for palen here but just to give you an idea a comparison to its peers you know looking at the profitability this is on Seeking Alpha a minus and the gross profit margin solid almost 80% and you can see some of the other metrics on your screen one one of the metrics we've been looking at recently just because it's interesting it doesn't mean you buy a stock off or anything it's just a tool in the tool belt or the tool box net income per employee about $38,600 so that's not bad considering a lot of these in the SAS realm they're burning cash still and that's going to be a negative number so next we're going to look at a chart and then I'm going to give you some thoughts on where the stock might go anytime you see orange that's a previous chart day yellow is today's chart day there's not going to be any yellow I'm just going to talk through it now we do Char day every single Wednesday at 9:00 a.m.
eastern patreon Discord and you can check that out join us those are recorded we have a free trial going on right now visit patreon.com fart up wealth now last time we talked on chart day this this was a couple weeks ago we said that we needed earnings February 5th we said it could bottom any time but pressure under $18 and really after earnings depending on the results you could see anything from $12 to $21 and so we kind of circle this as an area if it does go down it could be an opportunity to add of course on the upside $21 was what we projected as a possible upside Target and really if you look at this R3 here it's around $20 so $2 to $21 is where the stock could go in the short term of course stocks can always go much higher and they can fizzle out and sell off at any time too if you look at this previous number up here 2185 I think it's possible to kind of retest that area it could see resistance there but it could also blast through it now paler is an interesting one because it is what we call a c stock there are a lot of retail investors I'm a retail investor you're probably a retail investor if you're watching this there's a lot of excitement around the company around the stock and it's a lot like something like Tesla where it can be very hard to predict because the stock this doesn't always behave like a normal stock might and so if you get momentum behind an name like this it could easily you know climb to $25 or something like that but you have to ask yourself am I an investor long term am I trying to trade off momentum what am I trying to accomplish by buying the stock generally at fired up wealth we're trying to buy stocks and hold them for five or more years unless the story changes so do I want to buy the stock at $819 I personally don't because I've been following this company for many years well before it went public and it's one that I was buying at $99 and $6 and so so I think the stock could certainly go higher if you own it I think it's a hold as far as buying it here if if you're swing trading off momentum you could ride some momentum higher but a stock like this could fizzle out and go the other direction anytime and if you really look at the fundamentals behind it and the growth and some of its peers it is kind of expensive where it's at but that doesn't mean that the stock can't go higher thanks for your time and attention have a great rest of your day take care
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