저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
집 로저스는 올해 인도 증시가 예상 밖으로 강한 것에 놀랐다고 하며, 미국·나스닥도 52주 신고가 근처라 전 세계 시장이 강세라고 진단했다. 미국 증시는 상승 폭이 소수 기술주(7~8개)에 집중돼 있어 버블 위험이 커지고 있다고 경고했다. 다만 본인은 아직 미국에서 공매도하지 않고 있다고 밝혔다. 원자재는 현재 가장 싼 자산군으로, 설탕은 역사적 고점 대비 크게 하락했고 은은 고점 대비 50% 이상 하락했다고 언급했다. 농산물은 농민 감소로 공급 부족이 예상돼 가장 저평가된 자산으로 꼽았다. 농산물 가격 급등(인도 토마토, 쌀)을 언급하며 하반기 인플레이션 재발 가능성을 제기했다. 중국은 대형 자산 버블 붕괴 후유증이 길어질 것으로 보고, 중국 수요 회복에 베팅하는 시각에는 회의적이었다. 중국 증시는 저평가 가능성이 있다고 봤다. 일본 증시는 고점 대비 크게 하락한 상태로 아직 저평가 구간이며, 일본 중앙은행의 ETF 매수 여력을 근거로 투자 매력을 강조했다. 가장 추천하는 단일 트레이드는 은이며, 5년 관점에서 역사적으로 매우 싸다고 봤다. 실물 은 코인을 직접 보여주며 자신의 조언을 실천한다고 강조했다.
다듬은 글
Jim Rogers good morning how you been how you been doing sir so nice to have you back well I'm delighted to be here good morning to you I will have to say to you that the Indian stock market has been the most surprising to me this year you've done a done a very good job well I mean I would I would love to say that we are the best but if I look at what's the global uh Equity setup NASDAQ is also up S&P has also participated so yes Indian markets are at alltime high but other major markets also are at a at a 52 week high well you just said it your markets are making new highs that's very impressive to me I I would not have expected it I would have expected that Japan would be strong this year which is a bit of a surprise to many people but India is the biggest surprise to me well done why were you surprised and why were you not expecting that Indian markets will make a new high well most markets around the world have been strong as you know uh and when you're that strong usually something happens to cause the markets to go down I would expect a American markets to go down later this year but anyway I'm just surprised that India's been this WR strong I did not know your economy was so strong and I certainly did not expect your Market to be so strong congratulations well done Jim what do you make of the recent uh uptake which is coming back in uh Commodities crude prices are up rice prices at an all-time high if I look at other basic Commodities also I mean I don't know how closely you track it but I can tell you that tomato prices in India they've gone from about a dollar to about three and half dollars is inflation threatening to make a comeback especially in Agri commodity in the second half of this year well agriculture has been a disaster for a long time we've discussed this before so we're going to run out of farmers soon unless something happens and the thing that always happens throughout history is prices go up people become interested in agriculture again and that's what's happening supply and demand get out of balance but it's worse now because we don't even have enough Farmers around the world so in this mismatch that we seeing in Agri Commodities right now Jim what's the place to bet on within agre well as I look around the world uh the the cheapest asset class is Commodities right now I mean sugar's way down from its historic highs sh silver is down over 50% from its all-time high those are certainly not bubble numbers and commodities are the cheapest asset class as I said even the Indian stock market is making all-time high so nothing's cheap except Commodities so Jim at a time like this what's your portfolio strategy where is it that you have exposure is it India is it some of the other Emerging Markets Safe Haven assets like gold and silver well I never use the word safe when I talk about investing I have learned over the decades that nothing is safe uh but India has again to repeat has done a good job I would say the Japanese stock market has still got a long way to go the Japanese stock market is still down 25 to 30% from its all-time high which is pretty remarkable Chinese market is down a lot uh so that may be a place to invest but most stock markets have done extremely well in the last year so there're not any Bargains except maybe Japan maybe China Jim why has China surprisingly disappointed everybody at the beginning of the year the consensus view was go back to China they are coming out of that covid unlocking phase Chinese demand will make a come back and if Chinese demand will make a comeback Commodities will also make a comeback that view I think has got seriously challenged well China had a huge asset bubble and always no matter what the market when you have a big asset bubble and the Chinese bubble lasted several years when you have a long bubble that pops it usually takes a long time for it to recover that seems to be what's happening in China now because the bubble was gigantic Beijing claimed that they or said that they were trying to do something about it for several years somebody finally did something but the results are going to take a long time a long time to clear up because the bubble was so huge America had a big bubble like this you know in the 20s and it led to the 1929 stock market collapse so what happens next now Jim I mean the world in which you've invested in it was about high debt is bad news and if you have a high debt on your balance sheet the future will look Bleak the as a financial commentator what I have reported and what I've learned from you know GRS like you is that companies when they countries when they expand the balance sheet they will have to pay for it in future but that theory I think is getting completely debunked when I look at us you have certainly learned a lot hav you you've learned your lessons well uh the biggest asset class in the US has been technology that has certainly been a bubble if you look at the American Stock Market it's up but it's really only seven or eight stocks that are up and they're technology stocks they have gone up every every day and that usually leads to big problems eventually I'm not selling short in the US not not yet anyway I'm not selling short anywhere but I can certainly see the technology bubble in the US is getting bigger and bigger every week Jim what makes you so bullish on J you know the Japanese economy though because inflation is a persistent problem there as well and it continues at a higher rate than you know the national Target that they have you're very perceptive the the thing that makes me bullish on Japan the stock market is the fact that the Japanese stock market went down by many perc by over 50 went down 70% 80% uh it is still far below its all-time high its all-time high was 30 nearly 35 years ago so that's a long time and now the Chinese Central Bank is buying ETFs the Japanese Central Bank has more money than I do and if they're going to buy Equity or stock ETFs I want to invest in Japan so if somebody has to look at the world the Jim Rogers way what is your short if somebody has to really understand the world the Jim Rogers way what to your mind is the most overvalued asset class what to your mind is the most undervalued Val asset class and if Jim Rogers had to make one trade for next 5 years only one trade and then you allowed to go to Miami or come to India for a nice vacation which will be that trade well I guess that trade would be silver silver is so cheap uh on a historic basis and inflation is not over yet so I guess if I had to make one trade it would be silver the most overvalued asset class is probably you us technology stocks because they're becoming absurd I am not selling them in short yet because I expect them to get more obsurd the most undervalued asset class probably agricultural Commodities maybe the Chinese stock market um yeah probably agricultural Commodities okay good to have you on board Jim thanks much for joining in and sharing with us your outlook in terms of a port for allocation go ahead silver here I've got some silver here to show you I'm not just talking okay so you're staying true to your word you practice what you preach and there is your silver coin thanks so much Jim for joining in Okay so
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