저자: 에디Eddie · 한국인
요약 보기
주간 하락장의 원인을 4가지로 제시. 10년물 금리 4% 돌파와 고용지표 강세로 금리인하 기대 약화 및 유동성 축소 우려, 중동 지정학 리스크로 인한 유가 상승과 인플레 재가속 가능성, 남부 허리케인(Milton) 피해로 보험주 급락, 이번 주 CPI 등 주요 지표 대기와 높은 VIX. 엔비디아는 블랙웰 수요 호재로 강세를 보이며 신고가 시도 중이라고 설명.
다듬은 글
So, stock prices have been on an overall downward trend this week since Monday's trading session. The Nasdaq, S&P, and Dow Jones indices have all fallen to near -1%. We can briefly summarize the reasons for today's decline in four points. First, bond yields are having the biggest impact. The 10-year Treasury yield has surpassed 4%.
This happened in just a week, and the market is now interpreting the November FOMC rate freeze as a firm commitment to 15%. Last week, the non-farm payrolls figure exceeded the expected 150,000 by over 100,000. As the employment figures came out very strong, the market is interpreting this as meaning there is no need to raise rates because the economy is robust.
The Fed had previously shown signs of trying to boost the market when employment figures came out poor, but now that the economy is so strong, the likelihood of raising rates has decreased. Consequently, the Fed will likely tighten liquidity, increasing the probability of a market decline. Of course, there is some controversy regarding these non-farm payrolls figures.
They could be revised downward next month, and with the presidential election approaching, there is a concern that they might have been inflated. There is some controversy regarding whether that is the case, but given how well the indicators have turned out, we cannot know for sure until the non-public employment figures are released next month.
That is why people are selling off bonds right now. Since they expect interest rates to continue rising, the likelihood of interest rates falling is decreasing. Because the economy is doing well, the benchmark interest rate is rising, which reduces the opportunities for profit in bonds. Consequently, when market interest rates rise, market liquidity decreases.
This means that borrowers must pay higher interest rates to lend, which has the effect of tying up market cash flow. That is why tech stocks were particularly affected today. If you look at commodities, they have fallen significantly. Constellation Energy dropped 2.4%, and NextEra Energy fell 4%. Meanwhile, large tech stocks rose.
Jensen Huang gave an interview last week where he stated that Blackwell sales would start coming in from the fourth quarter, that demand for Blackwell is massive, and that there would be no production disruptions. Since then, stock prices have been steadily rising, and today, among large tech stocks, Nvidia rose significantly.
It is currently near $130 and is attempting to hit a new high. Nvidia's next earnings announcement is in November. It is the 19th, and there is still over a month left. To summarize the first reason, market interest rates are rising significantly, which is affecting market liquidity. The second reason is that geopolitical issues continue to emerge.
Although there was no major war news today, an official statement was released stating that missiles are being attacked by the Hamas militant group Aviv. Therefore, geopolitical issues persist, and flights operating toward Tel Aviv are increasingly suffering. Consequently, oil prices have risen sharply due to geopolitical issues and continue to climb; from September 27 to October 7, oil prices increased by 10% in less than two weeks.
When oil prices start to rise, transportation costs increase, which can lead to inflation again. If prices rise, the Federal Reserve must tighten monetary policy accordingly. Thus, through this interaction, rising oil prices and inflation may force the Fed to tighten, resulting in a situation where bond yields rise further.
So, to summarize the second reason, ongoing geopolitical issues have caused oil prices to rise and raised concerns about inflation. And the third negative factor is the Category 5 in the southern United States. News has emerged that a hurricane is set to strike the southern United States this Wednesday.
Following Hurricane Helen, which hit the South in early October, this time it is a Category 5 hurricane. I believe Helen was Category 4, but now Hurricane Milt is moving up, making it the most powerful Category 5 hurricane currently on the rise. Consequently, insurance companies took a heavy hit today.
As you can see, they all dropped by 3% to 5%, which was a major factor in the Dow Jones falling nearly 1% in a single day. Since these are insurance companies, they all experienced significant declines today. The Dow Jones fell because of the drop in insurance stocks, and on top of that, reports indicate economic losses will range from $4 billion to $7.5 billion.
Today, the Fear & Greed Index nearly hit the "Extreme Greed" level but has now dropped back down to 70. In particular, the VIX, the volatility index, remained high since this morning. It closed at 22.64 today. Since the VIX is ranked 19th, which is quite high, we can consider the volatility index to be high.
This Important inflation indicators are coming out this week. Recently, the economy has been strong and inflation has been slowing. They are being released on Thursday, and the headline inflation consensus is 2.3%. Therefore, we expect them to continue their downward trend. Last month, it was 2.5%, but it has continued to fall to the 2.3% range, nearing the 2% level targeted by the Fed.
Of course, this headline is about core inflation; let's look at core inflation next. Wall Street consensus forecasts that core inflation will be 3.2% this month, similar to last month. They expect it to maintain a similarly lower level. With strong employment indicators, a decent economy, and remaining robust consumption, inflation is holding steady.
Wall Street currently expects a soft landing or no-landing scenario—meaning there will be no recession or landing at all—and the market will continue to rise without faltering. In just two months, the economy has rapidly shifted from being on the brink of a recession to now facing no- landing. The presidential election is now 28 days away.
Therefore, before the election, the Fed and the government must ensure there is no recession. Because in a state of extreme political turmoil, if talk of a recession arises... Because the situation is becoming more chaotic, there is an incentive to maintain stability until then. Therefore, the factors contributing to today's overall decline in stock prices can be summarized into four points.
First, the 10-year yield, a long-term bond rate, has risen above 4%. Second, oil prices are rising significantly due to geopolitical issues. Third, a Category 5 hurricane struck the southern U.S. this Wednesday, causing economic losses and leading to a sharp decline in insurance companies and indices.
Fourth, there is the CPI release this week and many other important indicators. The volatility index is ranked 20th, and this high volatility can be interpreted as the market rising and falling, exhibiting fluctuations of -1% to 10%. Finally, as geopolitical issues continue to emerge, a situation is emerging where oil prices and inflation could rise.
The CPI is released this Thursday, and there will also be an announcement regarding Tesla's robo-taxi service. I will continue to update you with breaking news and insights on the U.S. stock market, so please subscribe now. I will be back with further updates in the next video.
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