저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 시프는 6월 고용지표를 신뢰하지 않으며 미국 경제는 이미 침체이거나 곧 깊은 침체에 들어가고, 연준은 금리를 인상하지 못하고 결국 제로금리·양적완화로 회귀할 것이라고 주장한다. 고용지표 평가: 6월 고용 28.7만명 증가는 5월·4월의 약세와 비교하면 이상치이며 수정될 가능성이 크다고 본다. 증가분 상당수는 버드-데스 모형에 따른 가정치로 실체가 불확실하다. 고용의 질: 증가분은 55세 이상에 집중되었고, 24세 이하 청년은 순감소했다. 신규 일자리는 저임금 서비스·시간제 중심이며 고임금 정규직은 계속 줄고 있다. 경기 판단: 실업률은 후행지표이므로 기업이 경기 둔화를 인지한 뒤 감원이 본격화된다고 본다. 이번 침체는 2008~09년보다 길고 깊을 것이라고 전망한다. 임금: 시간당 임금 상승(6월 2센트 증가, 25.6달러)은 미미하며 물가 상승을 감안하면 실질임금은 오르지 않았다. 최저임금 인상이 청년 고용을 줄이고 있다고 주장한다. 연준 전망: 연준은 브렉시트 결과와 고용지표를 기다렸다는 명분을 내세우지만 실제로는 경기가 약해 금리 인상을 할 수 없다. 다음 조치는 제로금리(또는 마이너스)와 양적완화 재개이며, 2008년보다 큰 버블이 형성되어 연준이 이를 계속 부풀리려 할 것이라고 본다. 물가: 연준은 인플레이션을 통제할 능력이 없으며, 미국의 막대한 단기 부채 때문에 금리를 올리면 국가 부도와 대형 은행 붕괴가 일어나므로 물가가 3~5%로 올라도 제로금리를 유지할 것이라고 주장한다. 리스크: 연준의 금리 인상 실패가 더 큰 금융위기를 부를 수 있다는 것이 핵심 리스크로 제시된다.
다듬은 글
welcome back to the show employers added a seasonally adjusted 287,000 jobs in June for the strongest job growth in8 months nearly every sector of the economy added jobs a far contrast from May's catastrophic numbers to get his take on that Peter Schiff is on the show he's the CEO of europacific capital I first asked him if the June jobs report actually indicates May's jobs report was an aberration here's what he had to say well to me probably June is more the aberration because May was more consistent with April both of those months were extremely weak and I'm very suspicious of the June number we'll see how we revise that next month you know we revise down the May number when we got this number but again even if most of the jobs end up holding I still don't think it validates any kind of legitimate recovery because a large percentage of those jobs are simply you know out of thin air during using the birth death model where the government simply assumes that jobs were created by businesses that they believe started up but also if you look at the demographics all these jobs went to people 55 and older younger workers 24 and under net lost a tremendous number of jobs in June and of course the jobs that we did create were very low paying service sector jobs part-time jobs we continue to Hemorrhage full-time jobs higher paying jobs the kind of jobs that that can support a family and instead we replace them with these low-paying part-time service sector jobs so it is not a good sign for the US economy so you're still concerned about the types of jobs that are being added and and you can certainly argue that the pace of job creation has slowed since the winter I think we've seen a trajectory downward since about February but is it the kind of pace that really signals a possible recession uh Morgan Stanley's Chief Economist Ellen zentner told the Wall Street Journal that to the contrary this actually looks more like a graceful slowing into a lower channel of job growth and that um this is normal at this late stage uh of the business expansion I mean does she have a point there no I don't think so and unemployment is not a leading indicator it's more of a lagging indicator it's when employers are surprised by a downturn in the economy that they adjust their payroll so the fact that so many employers don't purs ceive just how bad the economy is going to be doesn't invalidate the fact that either we're already in a recession or a recession is going to be starting very quickly and once employers uh figure this out then they're going to be trimming their payrolls I think rather substantially and so as the recession progresses that's when you're going to start to see big layoffs in in fact normally layoffs continue even after the recession is over but this recession is going to last for a long time I think it's going to be longer lasting and deeper than the recession that we had in 08 and 09 which we call the Great Recession so again I'm not really sure what we'll call this one the greater recession uh but it's going to be worse well what about wage gains I mean that's been a point of concern over the past year we want to see those wages go up but in recent months we have seen them uh start to move upwards and in fact in June average hourly uh wages Rose 2 cents an hour to $25.6 and many would argue that indicates employers are finally beginning to to compete uh against each other to attract candidates uh that the the labor Mark Market is tightening I mean what's your take on on why wages have gone up well first of all they're not going up very much that was still below estimates and and prices are also Rising so we do have inflation uh coming back and so wages are rising as well as prices but real wages are still not in fact going up but you do have some mandated minimum wage hikes that have been taking place throughout the country and since so many Americans now have minimum wage jobs those mandatory increases are going to are going to filter through into these numbers but as employers react to the higher minimum wage by laying workers off this is going to begin to bite in fact I'm sure that's one of the reasons that you're seeing massive layoffs for workers 24 and younger because these are the workers that are most impacted by a hike in the minimum wage because they have the least amount of skills and therefore they're the they're the the people that are going to be laid off first as a result of increases in a minimum wage and of course it's going to be increasingly more difficult for younger Americans to get their first job because the government is pricing those jobs out of existence and Peter in the last fed uh minutes we learned that there were two things the Fed was really waiting on to make their determination to raise rates the outcome of the brexit vote and the jobs data we now have both so given the full picture I mean what kind of assessment do you think we will get out of the FED at the end of this month well I don't think the fed's going anywhere again as I've said since the beginning since the first time the FED raised rates in December I believe their next move is to cut rates and they weren't really waiting on anything those were just the excuses the feder reserve can't admit that the economy is too weak for an additional rate hike so they have to keep pretending that they're contemplating actually raising rates and so they have to make up some excuses as to why they're not doing it right now and while they're waiting for some other data to come in but it really doesn't matter what the data is because it's never going to justify a hike they're always going to come up with an excuse why they're waiting meantime the next thing they're going to do I think is go back to zero in fact they may not stop at zero they may go negative and I do think they're going to restart quantitative easing because I think we've got a much bigger bubble on our hands than the one that popped in 2008 and I think the Federal Reserve finally notices recognizes this and they know that this bubble is too big to pop and say they are determined to blow air into it indefinitely so you think that at this point the FED is looking for more reasons not to hike rates rather than to hike them oh absolutely I mean they tried to hike rates in December and it was a complete disaster uh and so they don't want to do that again well the question is I mean how does the FED handle inflation at this point we know they've said time and time again that they're looking for that Target rate of 2% so how do they back themselves out of that corner because we know the FED has to be concerned about protecting its credibility right well they have no credibility and they can't handle inflation you know it's the opposite of Teddy Roosevelt when it comes to inflation they speak loudly but they have no stick at all and because they have no stick that's why they have to talk so tough they continue to pretend that if inflation ever were to rear its ugly head that they have the tools to rain it in but no they don't because we have so much debt in the United States particularly the government and the FED itself and the debt is so shortterm in nature on the the federal level that any meaningful increase in interest rates would bankrupt the country uh would collapse all the big banks that were bailed out they would all fail uh the US government would have to default on its treasury debt so the FED can't raise rates but it can't admit that so it pretends that if inflation you know picked up that they would do something about it but they will do nothing about it it doesn't matter how high inflation goes to and a half 3% 4% 5% doesn't matter the FED will stay at zero or practically at zero they will never try to reain it in because if they ever tried they would cause a worse financial crisis than 2008
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